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Sell High Candidates

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Sell High Candidates

Postby Chuckles » Sat Apr 30, 2005 10:46 am

I posted a Buy Low thread, so thought I'd start a sell high as well.

What about Burrell? That probably should have been done a couple weeks ago before the injury I'm guessing, but I'd still say perhaps Burrell.

Also, sadly I'd perhaps, just perhaps say Willis and AJ. I have both of them and am riding the hot streak, so I don't know if I'd sell high on them or not.
If you can help:

viewtopic.php?f=94&t=313880

Thanks!!!

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Postby rlee » Sat Apr 30, 2005 10:53 am

I think 2 great sell high candidates are Gustavo Chacin and Jon Garland. I'll be shocked if they keep up anything close to this early pace.
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Postby benjapage » Sat Apr 30, 2005 10:56 am

if you can get 4th round talent (or higher) for b-rob, then it needs to be done. soon. i'm not hating; just trying to be real about it.

b
yeah, yes...
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Postby DCNats » Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:06 am

I'm not sure about AJ Burnett as a sell-high candidate. I don't think his value has peaked yet, and I'm not sure you can easily get someone that will be worth more than him over the course of the year.

I do agree with benja about b-rob though. You'll be kicking yourself later if you pass up on a proven stud for him.
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Postby baseballnewb » Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:43 am

The difference between Brian Roberts and Loretta/Boone etc is pretty small even without the extra power he's hitting this year. If you sell high on him get a 4th round pick or better.

Willis is probably a good sell high player. Burrell is a hard one to sell high as he's better than he played the last 2 years so its going to be hard to get more for him than he's worth.
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Postby great gretzky » Sat Apr 30, 2005 12:55 pm

brian roberts is not a sell high candidate -- unless you get overwhelmed for him.

the reason is, I would think most drafted him for a healthy steals total, which he will most certainly get, and an avg that is satisfactory. any doubt he will hit .275 wiht 30 steals? I don't.

however, all of these extra stats, while being gravy are definitely helping your squad.

I think he is the type of player you don't bother trading, at least until you realize 60 percent or so of the value you originally projected him for yet find someone who is paying the price he is currently producing at.

Otherwise, it undermines your orignial strategy. if he keeps it up for half a season -- you reap the benefit you already drafted him for -- then you upgrade.

If the bottom falls out, he still gets the steals you projected him for.

I doubt anyone gives you top 3 rounds of value for him, yet I don't see why he couldn't be worth aa 4th or 5th round pick -- and at that rate, he still will have exceeded the value most assigned to him.

I think the best sell high guys are the ones who are more peripheral to your oringinal strategy, like OF's who perform higher than expected, or pitchers.

I was the last to draft a 2b in my keeper league (9 teams, small granted) and I can't think of a single reason to move him.
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Postby jbones733 » Sat Apr 30, 2005 1:50 pm

Burrell i think was a week 1 candidate now hes looking like Burrell again

AJ Burnett can be a top 10 pithcer, so i dont see him as a sell high

Chacin is a good one
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Postby noseeum » Sat Apr 30, 2005 5:46 pm

jbones733 wrote:Burrell i think was a week 1 candidate now hes looking like Burrell again

AJ Burnett can be a top 10 pithcer, so i dont see him as a sell high

Chacin is a good one


That the perfect reason why Burnett could be a sell high candidate. Everyone knows he's got potential. Peeps like Brian Roberts, EVERYONE knows he's playing over his head, so it would be difficult to fool peeps and get high value.

If you think Burnett will put it all together this year, than keep him. If you think he's still too much of an injury risk or can't keep this up, than sell him because someone out there feels he'll be a stud this year and may give you a struggling stud in return.
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Postby The Punisher » Sat Apr 30, 2005 5:50 pm

I don't see any reason why Burnett would not be a healthy top 10 pitcher this year and keep it all together. He's injury free now and there is really nothing to worry about, you cant say that he has potential anymore because he hasn't pretty much already shown it. Anyway though Willis would be a perfect sell high candidate. I think another good sell high candidate would be Milton Bradley. Previous years show that he always performs well in April and falls off after that, if you have him Id trade him for a top 7 round player
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Postby Yoda » Sat Apr 30, 2005 5:54 pm

I don't think anyone should sell Roberts at this moment. Most likely you paid little or nothing to acquire him and we don't know how real he is or not.

Worst case scenario, you end up with a .275ish hitter with 30+ SBs rest of the way which is still really valuable. Best case scenario, well, we have no idea what he is capable of yet. His track record suggests that he is not this good but a lot of mediocre players have one spike year and this could be Roberts'. Definitely hold.

AJ is for real. He was dominant when he returned in 04. He demonstrated that he can pitch and not just throw hard *cough*kerry wood*cough*, posting a very good K/BB ratio. He is continuing that trend so far and when you are throwing 100 MPH with a wicked hammer with control on a good offensive/defensive team, in a pitcher's park in the NL... what more could you ask for? Bullpen's shaky if Mota's lost for a long time but I'm willing to bet he wins at least 15 with an ERA around 3.00.
Last edited by Yoda on Sat Apr 30, 2005 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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