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Haren vs Mulder

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Haren vs Mulder

Postby RynMan » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:21 pm

Okay, so the season is over and it's time to check in on the prediction. I thought about bumping an old thread but I hate recycling old threads.

Was Haren better than Mulder?

Haren: 14W, 217.0IP, 163K, 53BB, 26HR, 3.73ERA, 1.22WHIP
Mulder: 16W, 205.0IP, 111K, 70BB, 19HR, 3.64ERA, 1.38WHIP

These are the stats I have had in my sig this season. Based on those statistics, it's damn close. Mulder gets the edge in wins and ERA, however lacks the K's and WHIP that Haren has.

A few other stats:

K/BB:
Haren: 2.81
Mulder: 1.56

BB/9:
Haren: 2.20
Mulder: 3.07

K/9:
Haren: 6.76
Mulder: 4.87

Opponent's BA:
Haren: .255
Mulder: .273

Haren gets the edge in all of those stats, mostly due to him throwing more innings.

VORP:
Haren: 39.5
Mulder: 37.6

So based on the above stats, I think one could argue that Haren was in fact better than Mulder.

Throw in their salaries for 2005:

Haren: $323,500
Mulder: $6,050,000

or if you are talking fantasy, think about where Mulder was drafted in relation Haren.

Bottomline, is there any argument that Haren was the better player in real life and fantasy?
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Postby warrick95 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:23 pm

Nope, you're divine. You completely deserve some toots of your horn because you really went out on a limb with that prediction. ;-D
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Postby Yoda » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:26 pm

Yep nice work. I also thought that Mulder would bomb in STL but didn't have the ballz to predict that Haren would outperform him. ;-D
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Postby RynMan » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:26 pm

warrick95 wrote:Nope, you're divine. You completely deserve some toots of your horn because you really went out on a limb with that prediction. ;-D


The point of the post is more to ask whether or not I am seeing this correctly. I believe Haren was actually better but sometimes I think I'm biased. Reason being I actually put money on that bet with a friend of mine, and he keeps pointing to ERA and Wins.
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Postby warrick95 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:31 pm

RynMan wrote:
warrick95 wrote:Nope, you're divine. You completely deserve some toots of your horn because you really went out on a limb with that prediction. ;-D


The point of the post is more to ask whether or not I am seeing this correctly. I believe Haren was actually better but sometimes I think I'm biased. Reason being I actually put money on that bet with a friend of mine, and he keeps pointing to ERA and Wins.


Oh, lol. Yes, you won by a lot. (And what I wrote was not sarcasm...looking back at it, it may have seemed so)

Wins is a horrific indicator of success. If Haren had been on the Cards, he would've (most likely) had as many if nor more wins than Mark Mulder. The Cards are one of the most prodigious offenses in the MLB, while the A's are merely average. They were actually one of the worst in the beginning of the season, before catching fire for a stretch.

ERA is very team dependent. The defense around him matters, as well as situational pitching, which cannot always be attribituted simply to being clutch or not clutch. In a 5X5 system (let's assume), I've always seen WHIP as a better indicator of success than ERA, because WHIP takes into account how successful the pitcher actually has been against each hitter. Obviously, certain pitchers will pop out better and worse in WHIP (groundball pitchers who use the DP ball often do worse, pitchers who give up many HRs do better), but overall, it is good. Haren's WHIP blows Mulder's out of the water, as Mulder was pretty darn average if not below average in that cat.

While I think K/BB can only be used a certain extent, as Ks are still outs, they are certainly a measure of dominance, vs. the measure of accuracy in BBs. Again, Haren blows Mulder out of the water there, too.
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Postby baseball6791 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:34 pm

RynMan wrote:
warrick95 wrote:Nope, you're divine. You completely deserve some toots of your horn because you really went out on a limb with that prediction. ;-D


The point of the post is more to ask whether or not I am seeing this correctly. I believe Haren was actually better but sometimes I think I'm biased. Reason being I actually put money on that bet with a friend of mine, and he keeps pointing to ERA and Wins.


I think that you are definitely right ;-D Haren outperformed Mulder in pretty much every cat (except ERA and Wins) despite playing on a much worse team. Great prediction ;-D
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Re: .

Postby RynMan » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:43 pm

j24jags wrote:here i found their Run supports which is HUGE for wins and out of the pitcher's control obviously
mulder-5.36 runs per start
haren-5.93

thats shocking but sorry to say it RynMan, not in ur favor
heres the link
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pit ... &ageMax=51


Interesting, thanks jags. The only thing I would say is that the American league conventionally is more offensive. 5.93 runs in the American league is probably not worth as much as 5.36 runs in the National league. I think you would have to look at the average number of runs per game for both leagues and then make adjustments.
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