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Jason Giambi...

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Jason Giambi...

Postby disgruntledjetsfan » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:29 pm

I'm sure this has already been asked this offseason, but I haven't gotten over here much, but I have several drafts approaching so.....

When should Jason Giambi be drafted, in a redraft league? I've been searching through various rankings and cheat sheets, and some have him up there pretty high, while others don't think he deserves to be drafted anywhere near the first 6 rounds. For example, Brandon Funston (who is clearly an idiot) doesn't have him on his top 100 big board.

So when do you all feel he should be taken?
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:34 pm

I have him ranked #79 overall. I got him in the 11th round of one of the mocks and he probably went around there in the others (though I haven't looked so I could be way off.)

I'd be comfortable taking him in the 8th-10th rounds of a normal draft. Any later than that is a steal in my opinion, because I expect some good things from him this year.
Last edited by BronXBombers51 on Sun Feb 12, 2006 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Dan Charette » Sun Feb 12, 2006 6:50 pm

I'm looking to try and get him in round 2 of a redraft. It's a 12 team league with 8 keepers.
He should have nice numbers in the middle of that lineup.

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Postby Belle4Hall88 » Sun Feb 12, 2006 7:07 pm

7th rnd
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Postby MMoNeY24 » Sun Feb 12, 2006 7:10 pm

I like him in the 6th-8th round depending on league size.
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:32 pm

I think he deserves consideration to go much, much higher. How high? well that will depend on how everyone in your draft thinks he will do. I think he is worth picking early even though 1b is so deep. I doubt he goes before the 4th round unless someone just loves him (do you have owners from east coast/NYC area?).

Overall, i think it really comes down to your own draft board. there are many 1b I really do not like this year for various reasons, so for me 1b isn't as deep to get a guy I really want this season. I think he is the #3 1b, on the same tier as Delgado and Helton. Tex is better but will come at a steeper price. I would take him in the 4th unless another player is there at a much thinner position-which is fairly likely. I am going to target him 4-6th rounds. Anything after the 6th is a steal IMO.
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Postby stumpak » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:35 pm

I totally disagree that he should go that high in a 5x5. Sure he could hit 35 HRs, but here is this downside to consider:

--Health. I do not think that there is a very good chance he gets 500 PAs. I would not even really take even money on 400 PAs.

--Batting average: it stinks. It could be as good as crummy (say .275), but it could be really really lousy. In terms of total value in a 5X5, is a guy who goes .250/35 any better at all than Sean Casey and .300/15? No.

--The Yankees offense. Sure it is fantastic, but you are not going to have five guys in the middle of the order who alll drive in 120 runs. If everyone hits like they are supposed, these guys will be clearing the bases for reach other all the time, and Giambi may actually with fewer RBIs than you would expect even if he knocks in 35 HRs. Even if he makes 500 PAs and hits 35 HRs, I would be shocked if Giambi clears even 90 RBI.

In other words, he is really high risk and the upside may not be as high as you think it is. There are better options among the top 100 players. Every year we see few guys like this--some pan out and are great value while others will kill your team. This is not a bad gamble to take, but at the appropriate time, not when there are other safer options available.

As a caveat, I recognize that this equation is completely different in any format that encompasses BB, OBP, OPS, etc.
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Mon Feb 13, 2006 2:18 pm

stumpak wrote:I totally disagree that he should go that high in a 5x5. Sure he could hit 35 HRs, but here is this downside to consider:

--Health. I do not think that there is a very good chance he gets 500 PAs. I would not even really take even money on 400 PAs.

--Batting average: it stinks. It could be as good as crummy (say .275), but it could be really really lousy. In terms of total value in a 5X5, is a guy who goes .250/35 any better at all than Sean Casey and .300/15? No.

--The Yankees offense. Sure it is fantastic, but you are not going to have five guys in the middle of the order who alll drive in 120 runs. If everyone hits like they are supposed, these guys will be clearing the bases for reach other all the time, and Giambi may actually with fewer RBIs than you would expect even if he knocks in 35 HRs. Even if he makes 500 PAs and hits 35 HRs, I would be shocked if Giambi clears even 90 RBI.

In other words, he is really high risk and the upside may not be as high as you think it is. There are better options among the top 100 players. Every year we see few guys like this--some pan out and are great value while others will kill your team. This is not a bad gamble to take, but at the appropriate time, not when there are other safer options available.



For Giambi to get 500+ AB he will need to have a better AVG. I think he gets to .290 or better this year. If he does not have the average, he won't get the AB's. I agree, if you think he doesn't get 400AB's you don't touch him with a 10 ft. pole until around 10th round or so as a flier.

In terms of the Rbi's, keep in mind Damon changes the order of the lineup. Torre loves going righty, lefty and wasn't able to do it as much because he had had to use Jeter at leadoff and Posada struggled. With a Lefty leading off, a lefty will most likely hit 3 and 5. Torre will need to choose between matchups or putting Matsui over Sheff. Giambi hits lefty pitchers as well so I doubt he moves from the 3 hole unless he is in a slump or needs a day off. So you are saying the #3 hitter on the yankees will only yield 90 RBI's ? Matsui usually hits 100 out of the 5 or 6 hole with only 30 HRs.

Sure, he brings risk with the pick, but he is going to be put into a position to challege for AL MVP. If he sucks or is only average, you get burned on your 4-6th round choice, not your 1-3. You can recover from that. If you get a solid Giambi, you end up with a player putting up 1-2 round numbers in the 4-6 round. Those kinds of values are not so easily found.
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Postby stumpak » Mon Feb 13, 2006 2:34 pm

What makes you think he will hit .290? He hasn't done that in years.

Obviously Giambi will have more value than Sosa in 2005, but any argument that hinges on him returning to his BA from 2000 or 2001 strikes me as wishful thinking of a similar vain to the people who thought that Sosa would rejuvenate in Baltimore.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 13, 2006 2:40 pm

stumpak wrote:What makes you think he will hit .290? He hasn't done that in years.

Obviously Giambi will have more value than Sosa in 2005, but any argument that hinges on him returning to his BA from 2000 or 2001 strikes me as wishful thinking of a similar vain to the people who thought that Sosa would rejuvenate in Baltimore.


I agree. At first glance you get excited by his second half numbers and expect him to post them or improve upon them. If not for his huge July, his BA would've been much lower than .270.

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