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Cleveland's offense isn't that good

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Postby pibb55 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:25 pm

They were not a fluke, VMart, Blake, Coco, and Broussard are still on the list of breakout candidates, unless they all brokeout a year early, at least 2 of those players will get better and Boone is back, Hafner has huge power, this team hitting is loaded.
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Re: Cleveland's offense isn't that good

Postby baseballboy » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:27 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:People seem to think that Cleveland's offense is spectacular. And they were - last year. But does anyone else get the feeling that everyone had a career year all at once?

I don't think there's a player on the team I am predicting to put up similar numbers to last year.

Am I alone on this?


you are VERY alone on this - this team is a fantasy manager goldmine. :-D
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Postby Rkiivs » Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:36 pm

They had a pretty unexpected breakout as a team last year. They may not seem "that good" but they're certainly not that bad.

Admittedly, they do play in an anemic division. But don't forget:
-they placed five players on the All-Star team, only 2 teams had more players
-they also handed the Yanks a 22-0 shellacking, the worse loss in Yankee history.

I like they way Shapiro has built them up, but alas, I see payrolls even from small market teams creeping up (Twinkies), so they'll need to spend to keep competitive.
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Postby Tavish » Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:58 pm

Other than Hafner I projected a decline for everyone on the team. Modest in some cases like Martinez and major in some cases like Crisp. Even then it might be the second best offense in the AL Central behind KC's.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:54 pm

Tavish wrote:Other than Hafner I projected a decline for everyone on the team. Modest in some cases like Martinez and major in some cases like Crisp. Even then it might be the second best offense in the AL Central behind KC's.


And that's what I was getting at.

Vic Martinez can't be as good as he was last year. Over the last 50 games or so, he hit close to .250.

Hafner should stay pretty much where he was last year - with the exception of the run/rbi numbers, which will come down as it's a team dependant stat.

Broussard saw his OBP drop around 50 points over the last couple of months of the season. He'll never be a star. Last year is the ceiling, not the floor.

Belliard finished the season in a 15 for 87 slump. This is the same guy that hit .277 in Coors. Expecting him to hit .282 again seems ridiculous.

They're switching from Vizquel to Peralta. Neither is great, but at this point Vizquel is better. Peralta needs to learn some strike zone judgement to be a good MLB hitter.

Boone is coming back from injury, but is an improvement over Blake at 3rd. But only if he's healthy and even then he's not much of an improvement.

Blake is now a corner outfielder. His k/bb ratio improved from 109/38 to 139/68. Neither is great. Last year is his ceiling as well.

Sizemore is going to be a good hitter, but he's not there yet. Let's call him undercooked. He's taking over for Matt Lawton, who had a career year.

Crisp hit 29 homers in his professional career before last year. Then he had a wild power spike - 15. At some point, the power mirage will fade and he'll become a pinch hitter off the bench. Sell high.



All these guys seemed to learn to hit at the same time. Lightning won't strike twice. They'll be a middle-of-the-pack offense in the American League this year. They aren't this good.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:23 pm

Tavish wrote:Even then it might be the second best offense in the AL Central behind KC's.


Am I missing something here? Did KC sign some guys i'm unaware of? There offense is ordinary....
I would put the Twins, Tigers, Indians over KC. And maybe even the ChiSox.

As for the indians offense I think its very good. I have just been waiting for Cleveland to explode, they have had the young guys for a while, now they are all hitting stride at the same time. I can't say that it will be worse than last year, just because I think alot of those guys showed last year what they can really do.

I have Blake on one team and am not comfortable with him. Like someone pointed out he is past his career avg peak in terms of production, so last year seems like it may have been a career year.
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Postby kev921 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:26 pm

I think that Cleveland has a good offense. I agree spectacular is too generous. But I cannot agree that KC has that good of an offense (maybe it is because I'm a Royals fan and just cannot expect anything but heartbreak)
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Postby Tavish » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:27 pm

RynMan wrote:
Tavish wrote:Even then it might be the second best offense in the AL Central behind KC's.


Am I missing something here? Did KC sign some guys i'm unaware of?


Yes, they signed Chris Truby. He will make the offense explode.
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Postby brandnew » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:20 pm

Hey CBM, I like Detroit's offense, too :-D
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Postby djack909 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:22 pm

The tribe in averaging almost 7 runs a game this spring. It is obvious they have a top level offense. Those youngsters didn't all have carrier years in '04.
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