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Believe in Nat. vs Amer. pitchers strategy?

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Believe in Nat. vs Amer. pitchers strategy?

Postby dsspence3 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:11 pm

Actually this was brought to my attention too late, that is after our draft, and my entire pitching staff was from the American League. And I agree obviously that the national league will get to face a pitcher once more per 9 batters, than an american leaguer will have to deal with the DH. But comparatively, wouldn't that also give way to American starters getting far better run support and a greater chance at winning? Anyway post your thoughts please ...


R. Johnson (NYY - SP)
M. Buehrle (CWS - SP) 
G. Mota (Fla - RP)
E. Guardado (Sea - RP) 
Z. Greinke (KC - SP)
M. Adams (Mil - RP)
J. Wright (NYY - SP)
S. Kazmir (TB - SP)
K. Millwood (Cle - SP) 
R. López (Bal - SP,RP) 
B. Myers (Phi - S) <-- random free agent/plug in anyone
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Postby hybrid » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:16 pm

The both really average/cancel themselves out. An AL pitcher doesn't have a greater shot at winning cause of the DH. They do get the added runs it provides, but they also have to go against it while pitching. NL pitchers don't get the added run suppoert, but then again they don't have to face a DH which helps them.

All and all, NL pitchers on average will have better chance to have Lower era/whip and higher K's ... so they really have the advantage. Though this really doesn't mean much if you have good pitchers on your team.
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Postby bost0n » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:26 pm

Both teams get higher run support in the AL and both teams get lower run support in the NL. Therefore, wins virtually cancel out.

WHIP, ERA, and K's is not dependant on the team (well not that much) so the NL pitchers get the advantage there.

NL pitchers advantage in WHIP, ERA, K's
Wins is a push.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:41 pm

AL pitchers don't have an advantage by having more run support, because they'll allow more R as well. So W won't be affected simply by changing leagues. But ERA and WHIP will definately change for the worse with a trade to the AL. But if you're drafting pitchers in a mixed league just look at their projections; if they've been done properly than it won't matter what league they're in. a 3.50 ERA/1.20 WHIP in the AL is the same as one in the NL, even though the AL pitcher is probably better. So you shouldn't need to take the league into account when drafting.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:08 pm

LBJackal wrote:AL pitchers don't have an advantage by having more run support, because they'll allow more R as well. So W won't be affected simply by changing leagues. But ERA and WHIP will definately change for the worse with a trade to the AL. But if you're drafting pitchers in a mixed league just look at their projections; if they've been done properly than it won't matter what league they're in. a 3.50 ERA/1.20 WHIP in the AL is the same as one in the NL, even though the AL pitcher is probably better. So you shouldn't need to take the league into account when drafting.
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Postby phunkadelic » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:17 pm

A starting pitcher in the NL should do better in K, ERA, and WHIP than the same one would do in the AL for obvious reasons. The converse is true as well for hitters in those leagues as they have a better chance at getting more ABs in the AL.

Your argument that they would have more wins in the AL since they have more run support is flawed in that the oppossing team would too score extra runs.

However, the one factor that gets overlooked a lot is that a pitcher in the AL has a slightly better chance at getting a win (or a loss for that matter), as they will be left in the game longer on average than an NL SP. No need to take a SP out for a pinch hitter in the 6th inning of a tied game when you have a DL unless their pitch count gets too high.
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Postby dsspence3 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:36 pm

Very good points guys,

but ... since AL lineups are more potent, doesn't that improve the chances of the pitcher slightly, giving a better team facing a weak offensive opponent. For instance a national league team, produces less runs, which leaves the door open for more parody among the national league. And given a national league team faces the same type of anemic offense as an American League team, but both in their respective leagues, the AL team has to be slightly favored because of the run support. While it may be a very little difference or some decimal percentage, I believe in that sense, some advantage is given to the American League.
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Postby josebach » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:25 pm

Try as you might (with everything else being equal), there is no way you can justify picking an American League pitcher over a National League pitcher. Past statistics really speak for themselves in this matter.

Look at last year's ERA and WHIP leaders. 80% of the top 20 ERA and WHIP starting pitcher leaders are all from the National League.

Top 25 ERA leaders of Starting Pitchers drafted in our league. Bold pitchers were in the American League last year. 21 out of 25 were in the NL.
J. Peavy 2.27
H. Ramírez 2.39
R. Johnson 2.60
J. Santana 2.61
B. Sheets 2.70
C. Zambrano 2.75
Ol. Pérez 2.98
R. Clemens 2.98
C. Pavano 3.00
J. Schmidt 3.20
Od. Pérez 3.25
C. Schilling 3.26
W. Miller 3.35
D. Davis 3.39
C. Carpenter 3.46
B. Radke 3.48
R. Oswalt 3.49
T. Hudson 3.53
B. Webb 3.59
T. Glavine 3.60
L. Hernández 3.60
M. Clement 3.68
A. Burnett 3.68
K. Wood 3.72
J. Thomson 3.72



Top 25 WHIP leaders of Starting Pitchers drafted in our league. Bold pitchers were in the American League last year. 18 out of 25 were in the NL.
R. Johnson 0.90
J. Santana 0.92
B. Sheets 0.98
C. Schilling 1.06
J. Schmidt 1.08
C. Carpenter 1.14
D. Wells 1.14
Od. Pérez 1.14
Ol. Pérez 1.15
B. Radke 1.16
R. Clemens 1.16
P. Martínez 1.17
A. Burnett 1.17
C. Pavano 1.17
G. Maddux 1.18
J. Peavy 1.20
F. García 1.22
C. Zambrano 1.22
J. Beckett 1.22
A. Pettitte 1.23
L. Hernández 1.24
R. Oswalt 1.24
T. Hudson 1.26
M. Buehrle 1.26
K. Wood 1.27

Top 25 K leaders of Starting Pitchers drafted in our league. Bold pitchers were in the American League last year. 15 out of 25 were in the NL
R. Johnson 290
J. Santana 265
B. Sheets 264
J. Schmidt 251
Ol. Pérez 239
P. Martínez 227
R. Clemens 218
R. Oswalt 206
C. Schilling 203
K. Escobar 191
M. Clement 190
C. Zambrano 188
L. Hernández 186
F. García 184
J. Peavy 173
J. Bonderman 168
R. Harden 167
D. Davis 166
M. Buehrle 165
B. Webb 164
B. Zito 163
B. Colón 158
C. Carpenter 152
J. Beckett 152
G. Maddux 151


It's not just a coincidence.
Last edited by josebach on Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:36 pm

josebach wrote:Try as you might (with everything else being equal), there is no way you can justify picking an American League pitcher over a National League pitcher. Past statistics really speak for themselves in this matter.

Look at last year's ERA and WHIP leaders. 80% of the top 20 ERA and WHIP starting pitcher leaders are all from the National League.

Top 25 ERA leaders of Starting Pitchers drafted in our league. Bold pitchers were in the American League last year.
J. Peavy 2.27
H. Ramírez 2.39
R. Johnson 2.60
J. Santana 2.61
B. Sheets 2.70
C. Zambrano 2.75
Ol. Pérez 2.98
R. Clemens 2.98
C. Pavano 3.00
J. Schmidt 3.20
Od. Pérez 3.25
C. Schilling 3.26
W. Miller 3.35
D. Davis 3.39
C. Carpenter 3.46
B. Radke 3.48
R. Oswalt 3.49
T. Hudson 3.53
B. Webb 3.59
T. Glavine 3.60
L. Hernández 3.60
M. Clement 3.68
A. Burnett 3.68
K. Wood 3.72
J. Thomson 3.72



Top 25 WHIP leaders of Starting Pitchers drafted in our league. Bold pitchers were in the American League last year.
R. Johnson 0.90
J. Santana 0.92
B. Sheets 0.98
C. Schilling 1.06
J. Schmidt 1.08
C. Carpenter 1.14
D. Wells 1.14
Od. Pérez 1.14
Ol. Pérez 1.15
B. Radke 1.16
R. Clemens 1.16
P. Martínez 1.17
A. Burnett 1.17
C. Pavano 1.17
G. Maddux 1.18
J. Peavy 1.20
F. García 1.22
C. Zambrano 1.22
J. Beckett 1.22
A. Pettitte 1.23
L. Hernández 1.24
R. Oswalt 1.24
T. Hudson 1.26
M. Buehrle 1.26
K. Wood 1.27


It's not just a coincidence.


It's not a coincidence. As has already been mentioned, being in the NL gives you an advantage because you don't have to face a DH. But to say that taking an AL pitcher as the top SP is unjustified is a sign of severe tunnel vision. RJ and Santana are in the AL, but would you rather have Peavy or Schmidt simply because they're in the NL? There are many, many factors such as ballpark, team defense, division strength, bullpen, etc etc. To look only at the being AL or NL and make a decision taht the top SP must be from the NL is pretty naive.

So yes, it's a trend, which should be accounted for. But even while having to face a DH, RJ is better than every SP in baseball.
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Postby dsspence3 » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:41 pm

true.

stats speak for themselves, a great pitcher is a great pitcher. It was fun while it lasted :*)
Last edited by dsspence3 on Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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