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Test BRIAN ROBERTS right now...........

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Postby Phatferd » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:04 am

brewwcreww wrote:.


Is someone trying to build up there post count? :-?


BTW, Yoda I agree with you on this one! ;-D
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Postby matdemos » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:19 am

I know this isn't lost on anyone, but I am compelled to point it out anyhow: dude plays 2B! If an OF came out of (relative) obscurity with a fortnight like B-Rob's, it would be a fantasy development...but getting unexpected production like this from your endgame 2B pick?! That's just plain dirty.

As for homer projections, I'm inclined to think he hits 20-25 - no way he keeps up his current pace, but the odds of the 5 HRs he has already hit being completely anomalous are really low. If you predict 12 HRs for him, you are predicting that he hits them out at his '04 rate from tomorrow forward....and going purely on empirical evidence, that prediction is just as crazy as a 40/40 season. There are good indicators that at least some of this power spike isn't a fluke, and dude already has 5 in the bank - 15 more in his next 600 PAs isn't so crazy right?
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Postby Phatferd » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:26 am

Another thing, say he improved his power by a small fraction. I have no idea how to measure his physical increased ability, if you even can. Say he increased his power 5%. How many of his 50 doubles were hit off the wall or 1 hopped the wall? In that ballpark he doesn't need to be that insane of a power hitter to get a fair share.

Say, 20 of his doubles were hit 370ft to the power allys last year. Say he improved his bat speed by the slightest margin. Now those 370 power ally shots are being turned on a little faster and he hits them 10 ft closer to the lines at the same force. Those may be enough to leave the yard?

I have no idea, if you can even measure things like this or if its totally asinine, but its a theory.
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Postby GSes » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:29 am

Phatferd wrote:
GSes wrote:I have Brian Roberts on a couple of my teams, so saying i am jelous i watsed a pick on a top tier 2B makes no sense.

Next thing, 40/40 is so ABSURD its not even funny. When I projected him as a top 3 2B, I said that is AT BEST what he could do, but i don't think he will. He is not going to hit 20 Homers, he will be lucky if he hits 15 homers. He has had 2 great weeks, not month. 2 weeks. He won't steal more then 30 bases, he never has and the Orioles don't run that much to begin with, and once all the oriles mashers start hitting homers, Mazzeli wil be more inclined to have Roberts wait to be driven in rather steal every time he gets on base. This guy is a classic example of sell high, he will fall off, Roberts has done this before, i remember one month last season he had a huge hot streak and stole like 10+ bases in one month hitting over 350, then he had a stretch where he hit like 220. People who think he is just going to keep up this magic all year, are compltely crazy, i'm sorry to say.

He is not going to hit more then 15 homers or steal more then 30 bases or hit over 300 or hit 100 rbi.

100 runs? that is the only lock for brian roberts

100 runs
12 homers
60 rbi
30sb
285avg

is about what you should expect at the end of the year, trade him now to the people who think he is going to go 40/40 or 30/30, they are the ppl who end up at the bottom of the standings at the end of the season.


I never said he will hit 40HR, I said I think he hits 15 just like you, but I think you are high if you think he won't get more than 30sb? He had almost that last year and he is still 27, so it's not like hes losing speed. Most basestealers steal their career highs around this age.

You need to stop saying he wont, he wont, he wont. The dude can, he has the abiltiy and the talent to be a 300, 15, 60RBI (maybe more if he werent the leadoff hitter) and score 115 runs in that lineup.

What you keep missing out on, is he isn't doing this against scrubs, he is hitting very good pitchers. Another thing is he is walking at a good pace and not striking out. Yes it is early and those things can change, but his plate discipline has improved.



I'm high saying he will steal only 30 bases? I ask you this? Has he EVER stolen more then 30 in a season? NO. So how can I be high then? The guy stole like 7 after the break last year.

If we are going to say Roberts is going to steal 40+, then Lugo is going to steal 60. Roberts is a good base stealer, I don't deny that, but I don't see him stealing more then 30............35 at the most why? because he never has before. its simple really.

how can I be crazy when I project him to steal the same amount of bases he stole the last few years. thats fricking stupid.
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Postby Phatferd » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:41 am

You said he WONT steal more than 30, which implies that he can't.

I am saying you have to be high to think that he can't If he stole 29 last year in 712 Plate Appearances in 2004 (just looked at AB and BB, dunno about errors) and 23 in 506 Plate Appearances in 2003, you can't say that he won't he very well could. Wouldn't natural progression say he will be over 30 this year?

He has only played 2 full seasons and stole 23 in 03 in 200 less Plate Appearances. I really think he has 40sb potential and who knows why his SB dropped so much? Could it be that he had a tight Hamstring or bad foot? I dunno, but to say he won't steal 30 when he was 1 shy last year is asinine.

Also, SB usually peak around this age for base stealers.
Last edited by Phatferd on Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby tuff_gong » Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:11 am

i for one am enjoying the heck out of this b-rob tear. i am struggling to decide whether i want to sell him high or keep him for a bit.
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Well that's just like, your opinion man.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:50 am

I am in the same predicament but I think Ill keep him. I love the guy. I drafted him for his SB potential and that shouldnt leave. His power is just a huge plus. So i say keep BROB!!!
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Postby ramble2 » Sun Apr 17, 2005 3:12 am

I have mixed feelings over this whole thing. After drafting Hairston Jr. last year, I picked up B-Rob in spring training. He was a great 2B last year. I targeted him in this year's draft (I wanted the SB), but he got taken before I had a chance to get him - in the 10th round! I thought that was early ...

It's great to be validated on a sleeper pick, but it hurts a bit when I missed him in the draft! :~(
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Postby chinch sacs » Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:19 am

ramble2 wrote:I have mixed feelings over this whole thing. After drafting Hairston Jr. last year, I picked up B-Rob in spring training. He was a great 2B last year. I targeted him in this year's draft (I wanted the SB), but he got taken before I had a chance to get him - in the 10th round! I thought that was early ...

It's great to be validated on a sleeper pick, but it hurts a bit when I missed him in the draft! :~(


I hear you, I grabbed him in my 12 team league in round 12 (we use MI) I already had M. Giles and Furcal but I couldn't let him fall, I just had a feeling...

I payed alittle more than I wanted (was targeting 14 or 15 round) but I guess it was OK that I jumped...
Fantasy sports are ruled by the 50-50-90 rule...

Anytime you have a 50/50 choice between two players, 90% of the time, you'll get it wrong
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