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anyone heard any news about rivera?

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Postby RugbyD » Fri Apr 29, 2005 12:15 am

Turnip wrote:Pwnt basically means that your post was countered and proven completely wrong. He proved that K/9 rates are not declining. Rivera is a stud who is closing for the best team in baseball.


hm, well i said they were in decline over the last few years, not 8, and from what i can tell he proved my point for me......
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Postby agchris02 » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:44 am

How in the world do you see a decline over the past few years? Since 2002 its been almost identical, which is a large improvement over the first few years of his career (in which he was just a setup guy for wettland)

35 is not old in pitching, dont know where you get that, yeah he's not the lights out for sure closer he used to be, but lets not get spoiled by what gagne did -- that was record setting remember? He is still one of the top 5 closers in baseball, arguably top 2 or 3
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Postby Laean » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:55 am

rmeesig wrote:
RugbyD wrote:its not news per se, but he's a) old, and b) far from overpowering. he's had a scary decline in K-rate the last few years. he'll be good enough this year, but his great days are long gone unless he finds a new pitch


a) 35 is old? while he IS getting older, he's only 2 years older than the league avg for relief pitchers.
b) he's never been a power pitcher. he relies on movement of that cutter
c) "scary" decline of K/9?

1997 (68K) - 8.54 K/9
1998 (36K) - 5.28 K/9
1999 (52K) - 6.78 K/9
2000 (58K) - 6.9 K/9
2001 (83K) - 9.26 K/9
2002 (41K) - 8.02 K/9
2003 (63K) - 8.02 K/9
2004 (66K) - 7.55 K/9
career avg - 8.01 K/9

He lost less than 1/2 a K off his career avg last year, and that is a "scary" decline? He struck out more batters last year than ANY of his years as a closer except 2001 and 1997 (by 2K).

Don't let the facts get in the way though....


pwn'd.

man i'm getting sick of all these should i cut matsui? vmart you bust! thome is over the hill. trade johnson for clement and a can of diet coke? posts after 1/8 the season has passed.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri Apr 29, 2005 5:42 am

RugbyD wrote:
rmeesig wrote:
RugbyD wrote:its not news per se, but he's a) old, and b) far from overpowering. he's had a scary decline in K-rate the last few years. he'll be good enough this year, but his great days are long gone unless he finds a new pitch


a) 35 is old? while he IS getting older, he's only 2 years older than the league avg for relief pitchers.
b) he's never been a power pitcher. he relies on movement of that cutter
c) "scary" decline of K/9?

1997 (68K) - 8.54 K/9
1998 (36K) - 5.28 K/9
1999 (52K) - 6.78 K/9
2000 (58K) - 6.9 K/9
2001 (83K) - 9.26 K/9
2002 (41K) - 8.02 K/9
2003 (63K) - 8.02 K/9
2004 (66K) - 7.55 K/9
career avg - 8.01 K/9

He lost less than 1/2 a K off his career avg last year, and that is a "scary" decline? He struck out more batters last year than ANY of his years as a closer except 2001 and 1997 (by 2K).

Don't let the facts get in the way though....


it doesn't matter how many he struck out b/c that is mostly dependent on appearances, which he has no control over. K-rate is everything and losing almost 2 per 9 over the last 3 years and considering that 35 is well past peak for most and the fact that his K-rate is solely dependent on the effectiveness of his cutter, it tells you (or at least should) that the end of dominance is near. A declining cutter is bad news b/c a) the rate of contact will increase and b) the quality of contact will increase. It doesn't seem like much but when 1/2-inch is the difference between a fly ball and a home run, the margin of error is much less on a cutter than it is a curve or slider.

what the hell is pwn'd?


Don't even TRY to save your argument. You called it a "scary decline in K's"?! He's down 1.7 K/9 from the best year of his career... and only .5 K/9 from his career average. Plus, his most effective years were the late 90's... when he actually had a LOWER K/9 than right now.

He is getting older, and some teams have figured out how to get to him every now and then... but don't spew out garbage that you can't back up with stats.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby RugbyD » Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:49 am

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
RugbyD wrote:
rmeesig wrote:
RugbyD wrote:its not news per se, but he's a) old, and b) far from overpowering. he's had a scary decline in K-rate the last few years. he'll be good enough this year, but his great days are long gone unless he finds a new pitch


a) 35 is old? while he IS getting older, he's only 2 years older than the league avg for relief pitchers.
b) he's never been a power pitcher. he relies on movement of that cutter
c) "scary" decline of K/9?

1997 (68K) - 8.54 K/9
1998 (36K) - 5.28 K/9
1999 (52K) - 6.78 K/9
2000 (58K) - 6.9 K/9
2001 (83K) - 9.26 K/9
2002 (41K) - 8.02 K/9
2003 (63K) - 8.02 K/9
2004 (66K) - 7.55 K/9
career avg - 8.01 K/9

He lost less than 1/2 a K off his career avg last year, and that is a "scary" decline? He struck out more batters last year than ANY of his years as a closer except 2001 and 1997 (by 2K).

Don't let the facts get in the way though....


it doesn't matter how many he struck out b/c that is mostly dependent on appearances, which he has no control over. K-rate is everything and losing almost 2 per 9 over the last 3 years and considering that 35 is well past peak for most and the fact that his K-rate is solely dependent on the effectiveness of his cutter, it tells you (or at least should) that the end of dominance is near. A declining cutter is bad news b/c a) the rate of contact will increase and b) the quality of contact will increase. It doesn't seem like much but when 1/2-inch is the difference between a fly ball and a home run, the margin of error is much less on a cutter than it is a curve or slider.

what the hell is pwn'd?


Don't even TRY to save your argument. You called it a "scary decline in K's"?! He's down 1.7 K/9 from the best year of his career... and only .5 K/9 from his career average. Plus, his most effective years were the late 90's... when he actually had a LOWER K/9 than right now.

He is getting older, and some teams have figured out how to get to him every now and then... but don't spew out garbage that you can't back up with stats.


man, are you people literate? i never said he was bad, just not dominant. he's tier 2 on my list now.

don't let qualitative reasoning get in the way though......
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:17 am

2001: 9.26
2002: 8.02
2003: 9.02
2004: 7.55

That may not be a huge decline, but it's definately a decline. When you're already low to begin with, dropping another .5 K/9 while your BB/9 is getting higher is cause for concern. You can talk about career numbers and how he isn't far below them, but when you're looking at a declne you don't look at career numbers, you look at their recent career. 35 may not mean that he's going to be done soon, but it's certainly not peak age by any means, especially for a guy who essentially only throws a fastball. He's still very good, just not as good as he was before. Nobody was pwned.
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Postby RugbyD » Fri Apr 29, 2005 8:35 am

my faith in the cafe has been restored. ;-)

and for those not convinced, the BAA and OPSA trends aren't all peaches either. still a nice stable WHIP, but runners are getting closer to home now than before.
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Postby rmeesig » Fri Apr 29, 2005 12:48 pm

LBJackal wrote:2001: 9.26
2002: 8.02
2003: 9.02
2004: 7.55

That may not be a huge decline, but it's definately a decline. When you're already low to begin with, dropping another .5 K/9 while your BB/9 is getting higher is cause for concern. You can talk about career numbers and how he isn't far below them, but when you're looking at a declne you don't look at career numbers, you look at their recent career. 35 may not mean that he's going to be done soon, but it's certainly not peak age by any means, especially for a guy who essentially only throws a fastball. He's still very good, just not as good as he was before. Nobody was pwned.


2003 was actually 8.02

One could argue that 2001 was an aberration as he's never hit 9 for his K/9 in his career as a closer. A better comparison would be years vs career avg. Like I said before, his career avg is 8.01...the 2004 rate of 7.55 is less than 1/2 of one K/9!! How is that considered "scary decline"???

BTW - his BB/9 has always been right around 2. He actually bounces back and forth from 1.5ish to 2.25ish every alternating year. Hard to say which way he's going, but his 2.29 last year was lower than his career avg of 2.43

Not trying to show anyone up, but if you post garbage, I'm going to call you out on it.

The stats don't lie....

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Postby blankman » Fri Apr 29, 2005 1:39 pm

RugbyD wrote:
ocmusicjunkie wrote:
RugbyD wrote:
rmeesig wrote:
RugbyD wrote:its not news per se, but he's a) old, and b) far from overpowering. he's had a scary decline in K-rate the last few years. he'll be good enough this year, but his great days are long gone unless he finds a new pitch


a) 35 is old? while he IS getting older, he's only 2 years older than the league avg for relief pitchers.
b) he's never been a power pitcher. he relies on movement of that cutter
c) "scary" decline of K/9?

1997 (68K) - 8.54 K/9
1998 (36K) - 5.28 K/9
1999 (52K) - 6.78 K/9
2000 (58K) - 6.9 K/9
2001 (83K) - 9.26 K/9
2002 (41K) - 8.02 K/9
2003 (63K) - 8.02 K/9
2004 (66K) - 7.55 K/9
career avg - 8.01 K/9

He lost less than 1/2 a K off his career avg last year, and that is a "scary" decline? He struck out more batters last year than ANY of his years as a closer except 2001 and 1997 (by 2K).

Don't let the facts get in the way though....


it doesn't matter how many he struck out b/c that is mostly dependent on appearances, which he has no control over. K-rate is everything and losing almost 2 per 9 over the last 3 years and considering that 35 is well past peak for most and the fact that his K-rate is solely dependent on the effectiveness of his cutter, it tells you (or at least should) that the end of dominance is near. A declining cutter is bad news b/c a) the rate of contact will increase and b) the quality of contact will increase. It doesn't seem like much but when 1/2-inch is the difference between a fly ball and a home run, the margin of error is much less on a cutter than it is a curve or slider.

what the hell is pwn'd?


Don't even TRY to save your argument. You called it a "scary decline in K's"?! He's down 1.7 K/9 from the best year of his career... and only .5 K/9 from his career average. Plus, his most effective years were the late 90's... when he actually had a LOWER K/9 than right now.

He is getting older, and some teams have figured out how to get to him every now and then... but don't spew out garbage that you can't back up with stats.


man, are you people literate? i never said he was bad, just not dominant. he's tier 2 on my list now.

don't let qualitative reasoning get in the way though......


Rugby, your reasoning was quantitative, based on K rates. Don't try to go back on that and say you're arguing qualitatively, because that's a lie.
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Postby RugbyD » Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:23 pm

blankman wrote:Rugby, your reasoning was quantitative, based on K rates. Don't try to go back on that and say you're arguing qualitatively, because that's a lie.


The k/9 is definitely quantitative. The subsequent explanation, which was evidently necessary after-the-fact, regarding why k/9 matters so much for a cut pitcher like Rivera is definitely qualitative. Read the posts in full, in order, and it makes sense. It's not a lie.
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