Return to Baseball Leftovers

Strategy of "selling high versus low"

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Strategy of "selling high versus low"

Postby great gretzky » Sat Apr 30, 2005 1:10 pm

A lot of talkt his year (and any other year) of "selling high" "buying low"

But with lyon and roberts performing way above predictions, I thought I would comment.

I normally agree with moving hto players for more established value where applicable. Yet, more people than ever are wise to this strategy.

But, I think lyon and roberts present a problem here.

Most drafted roberts and picked up lyon very late relative to their production, and I think it is a mistake to move them, and thus would advise against "selling high" here.

I think most, like myself drafted roberts thinking "2b is shallow, I want to focus elsewhere and get someone who can hold the fort, not hurt avg and get steals" Roberts did not have that much value going into this year. Yet a lot of draft strategies centered around getting him and his 30 steals. people would be happy with .275-.280 and his 30 steals. Is there any doubt he will get them? I think he is pretty much a lock at this point.

So why sell high here? probably you counted on those steals for your general stragey, and steals can be hard to replace, especially at a position like 2b. But he is knocking the tar out of the ball as well. Why divest yourself of this bonus? I would doubt that in any comepetitive league, you would get top 3 round value for him anyway. But is it likely he could get 4th or 5th round value just by staying on your team? Yes. And even if he doesn't, will he still get the stats you drafted him for? Yes. I just don't see the point in getting rid of him to be honest.

Unless of course, you take 60-70 percent of the value you originally drafted him for, THEN trade him for his new, perceived value. If you take say 20 sb's from him, take his hot start, then are able to move him, then you would only take a hit of 10sb's or so. then it would be worth it IMO, not before. May as well see what he does, as there is no risk to keeping him, as you already counted on moderate stats in the first place.

I feel that Lyon is similar. He had 0 expectations, yet played himself into the closer's role and has basically run with it. His manger has faith, and the options behind him are pretty unproven and nothing special at the moment anyway.

why would you trade what is essnetially a "free" closer who could conservatively end up with 30 or so saves that cost you nothing in investment.

I think if you have these players, the real "sell high move" may be to trade a different player on your team who would command more in perceived value. since most have gotten a slew of saves that you never counted on anyway, why not trade a more "established" closer, and get more than you would get for lyon. It is a gamble, sure, but I think it may be the wiser course here.

I have mota and lyon -- and aside from mota's recent issue, Mota probably would net you more because of his name, but in reality might not exceed lyon anyway? I think the same idea could be applied to roberts.

It might be better to "sell low" on a somewhat more established name, selling him on his name -- and letting the other team think they are "buying low" and getting a more advantageous deal.

I think using perceptions against people is a good way to get things done, even if there is slight risk to yourself.
great gretzky
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3762
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 3 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Postby jbones733 » Sat Apr 30, 2005 1:45 pm

it doesent always work , last year im sure some sold high on Beltre, Konerko & they produced all year . & 2 years ago bought low on Burrell & Konerko & they sucked all year, in general guys always produce to what their career #'s are, so i would think buying a guy like Thome or Chavez low is good, cause they will most likely comeout w the #'s they always have. Selling guys l;ike Chacin & Barmes high is probably a good idea cause rooks generally dont keep up a torrid pace all season.

i dont have B Rob on any team but i would not sell him high, no reason he cant put up M Giles #'s & you probably got him 9 rounds or so later & Lyon as a waiver wire pickup should save a nice amount of ball games. so ya gotta be picky & theirs still risks in buying low & selling high
jbones733
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 4026
(Past Year: -6)
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: @ home in my galaxie

Postby intense » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:01 pm

Lately I have been making alot of trades with the buy low sell high type strategies. I would have to disagree with what you are saying as far as holding onto the guys you got late that are preforming above expectations. I picked up Lyon off waivers after the draft. Sure hes been doing great and all with 10 saves now, but if someone gets the chance to deal him for a proven closer, I don't see why they shouldn't jump on that? Many owners in my league saw Lyons numbers as the leading closer thus far this year and made offers and expressed interest in him. Now heres will I say... How do I know if he will continue to preform like this all year...? Why not just deal him for a proven closer whose put together nice seasons. Im not losing anything by doing this... It doesnt matter that I picked Lyon up off waivers and am trading him for someones 6th-8th round closer pick. I guess the point im trying to make is, why not sell high even if the value you got them at was low, if you're able to get someone who was drafted earlier and will preform, go and and do it.
intense
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 952
Joined: 3 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby AznHisoka » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:07 pm

I see no problem will selling high as long as you get someone who is proven and will most likely give you a bigger boost in the standings than if you had stay put. So, trading Brian Roberts for someone like Justin Morneau is silly in my opinion, because both of them have not proven they can hit for long periods of time. However Roberts for Thome, or Chavez is great because you know there is a 90% chance Chavez/Thome will have better seasons than Roberts.

The problem with buying low is that it's not always a good idea. It's like buying tech stocks 'cause they're real low. Well the problem is, they might go even LOWER. Again, the key here is to buy low on proven studs who aren't injury proned. Thome, Chavez are names that pop up to mind. If someone bought low on Barry Zito last yr, well we all know how he turned out... So buying low isn't always a good idea.
AznHisoka
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 152
Joined: 5 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Strategy of "selling high versus low"

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:22 pm

great gretzky wrote:why would you trade what is essnetially a "free" closer who could conservatively end up with 30 or so saves that cost you nothing in investment.


I think that's exactly the point - he cost you nothing in investment. If you can trade a guy you picked up for 9th round value, then that means you've gotten good value for your investment, since you essentially now have two 9th-round players for the price of one (the other 9th-rounder is the one you drafted). Obviously, if you think Lyon will continue to perform at 9th-round value, then it's equally as useful to keep him as to trade him. But if you can get guaranteed value out of a risk, then I think it's generally a good idea.

One of your main points is that since people are aware of the strategy of selling high, you won't get that much value out of trading a guy like Brian Roberts anyway. Remember, though, that with trades, all that matters is how you expect the players involved to perform for the rest of the year. If I expect Roberts to finish with 15 HR and 30 SB, then that means he has 8 HR and 20 SB left in him. Of course, I also don't expect him to finish the season batting .385 - I'd expect more around .280. That means he'd actually have to hit below .280 for the rest of the season. As for runs and RBIs, I expect him to finish with about 110 and 60, respectively, which leaves 90 R and 37 RBI left.

Now, consider someone like Eric Chavez, who currently has 6-2-8-0-.193 (R-HR-RBI-SB-BA). I think Chavez can finish with 80 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 5 SB, and a .270 BA. For him to do that, he'd have to get 74 runs, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 5 SB, and a BA above .270.

So based on my estimates, these are what would be expected from each player for the rest of the season (R-HR-RBI-SB-BA):

Brian Roberts: 90-8-37-20-.270
Eric Chavez: 74-28-87-5-.280

Obviously, this is a pretty extreme example, since these are basically this season's textbook examples of a hot starter and a slow starter. But basically, this is the idea of buying high and selling low. It's basically just the law of averages, but the point is that you want a player with a bad start to be on your team when things start averaging out (i.e., he starts hitting well).

As you've pointed out, there are other considerations as well. If you need those extra 15 SB from Brian Roberts, then maybe he's worth holding onto (especially if you predict more around 40 SB, which means he still has 30 left in him). But in general, the main thing to remember is that it doesn't matter which player will end up with better stats - what you have to consider is how each player will perform for the remainder of the year.
JustAnotherYanksFan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1000
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby tomkatt » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:34 pm

I have NO plans to get rid of B-ROB. I plucked him off the free agent wire just before the season started to help with steals. I love the little fella so far! ;-D

__________________________

12 TM 5X5 ROTO:

C- Mike Piazza/Johnny Estrada
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Brian Roberts
3B- Chipper Jones
SS- Julio Lugo
OF- Pat Burrell, Andruw Jones, Milton Bradley, & Jason Lane
Util- Marcus Giles

SP- Tim Hudson, Josh Beckett, Jeremy Bonderman, & Bret Myers
RP- Chad Cordero, Miguel Batista, & Derrick Turnbow
tomkatt
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1392
(Past Year: -6)
Joined: 29 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby great gretzky » Sat Apr 30, 2005 4:08 pm

i guess I am not talking about obvious players like thome, helton, chavez etc.

If yuou can buy them low, then all means do so -- you will be rewarded.

And I would like to add, that I don't mean "never buy low, sell high"

I just meant that sometimes, riding it out is better -- as long as you remember your original strategy.

I hear so many people talk about selling roberts high, that it makes me wonder if they remembered their original strategy.

And I would add that my point really only applies to specialist things, which is why I brought up lyon and roberts. The player you bring back by "selling high" may not even be worth it in the long run. Holding onto them and trading the more established guy may be more to your advantage. Of course both will slow down -- not even arguing that.

I guess my point is that both of these guys are such gravy that in some instances, it is better to risk holidng onto the guy "playing out of his mind" then trading someone else. I guess it is all in how you allocated your stats in your mind. I think in a weird way their success almost devalues them. no one thinks they can keep it up, so now one will pay for their current performance. yet their floor is high enough -- GIVEN the intial investment and basic strategy, why not just ride it?

I think sometimes people get so worked up riding the market, that they ignore the low cost assets they have in the first place.

not a hard and fast rule, jsut wanted to point out that it may not be woeth it to trade them even if their value is at a peak.

Ig uess my point is that just because a guy is exceeding expectations doesn't mena you should always be looking to "sell high" especially when they are performers in the harder to fill categories.
great gretzky
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3762
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 3 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Re: Strategy of "selling high versus low"

Postby Laean » Sat Apr 30, 2005 5:41 pm

great gretzky wrote:
why would you trade what is essnetially a "free" closer who could conservatively end up with 30 or so saves that cost you nothing in investment.



because i traded:

miguel batista (who i got off FA for "free") + shawn green 4 hoffman + andruw jones
Laean
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2592
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 16 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Nemo » Sat Apr 30, 2005 6:17 pm

Gretzky,

Great post. Extreme cases may not work in a "sell high" scenario. Nearly every time people have posted "Trade Roberts for (insert player here)?" I have advised against it. The one that I can remeber saying to do it was for David Ortiz, I believe. I've said that I don't think you can get good value for Roberts most of the tme because so many people expect him to flounder. And since he was so cheap early (post draft WW pick-up for me) that it's realy no risk to hang onto him as a potential breakout candidate.

YanksFan,

Great point also about what they will do for the rest of the year and finding ultimately ending up around their career numbers. It's hard to break it down that way, but very valuable to do so. The problem is the breakout years that blow the latter out of the water. Roberts for example has enough evidence (the 27 thing, the 50 dbls last year thing, the no maore Hairston thing) that could allow you to believe he could be a breakouit candidate, who will outperform his career numbers as well as your original projections when you got him. Winning FFB is all about managing risks & rewards. Keeping Roberts is a good risk, because presumably you drafted power and over .300 ave elsewhere and were counting on him for runs & steals only. It could be that he's had his hot start and then may even if he drop his normal rate for the rest of the year and he'll be way ahead of his career numbers.

Obviously you take any no brainer trade, but my thoughts on Roberts in particular would be if you have to ask here, you shouldn't do the deal.
Nemo
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 673
Joined: 4 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rhode Island

Postby great gretzky » Sat Apr 30, 2005 7:31 pm

"miguel batista (who i got off FA for "free") + shawn green 4 hoffman + andruw jones"

well that is different and you know it. not to be snotty, but I was using roberts and lyon very specifically, as I see a ton of posts relating to them specifically.

You basically upgraded batista for hoffman, considering green and jones are kind of a wash -- independent of eligbility.


What I am talking about is slightly different, as what you can realistically expect abck by "selling high" really isn't worth it considering you drafted these guys based on a specific strategy and they are exceeding it. Trading them means you gain back less than their trend shows they will earn and you are messing with your initial strategy. no one will give roberts credit for what he is actually earning (another dong tonight), yet you drafted him for a reason.

obviosuly, someone sends you an offer of soriano, you take it. of someone sends youa giles and say a closer, you take it.

but there is no inherent reason, solely based on roberts "playing above his head" to trade him. It messes up both your initial strategy AND any potential value he would have, should he continue to play like this. Odds are he won't, but worst case scenario you have your inital projection anyway. best case scneario, you have an utter stud on your hands. trading him means you may get something in bettween at the expense of the ceiling. I don't get it.
great gretzky
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3762
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 3 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests

cron