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Halladay - WOW!!!

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Postby JTWood » Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:09 am

Krunk City King$ wrote:Halladay, Smoltz in danger


June 7, 2005
David Gonos
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Complete games mean bonus points in most head-to-head leagues, so Roy Halladay's majors-leading four CGs mean that much more since few pitchers can go the distance. Through Monday, only 11 pitchers in the majors have more than one CG. And Halladay and Willis are the only starters with more than two.

Halladay's shoulder tendinitis from a season ago is sleeping at the moment, but don't fool yourself into thinking he is in mint condition. While his incredible stats two months into the season are enjoyable to say the least, realize that he is on pace to throw 260-plus innings -- as many as he had in his 2003 Cy Young season. That is too much wear and tear on his shoulder.

Every party loves a pooper that's why we invited you.

j/k

Good post ;-D
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Postby DGroundhog » Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:24 am

Then again he has only thrown more than 120 pitches once this year.

I would say Halladay's previous arm problems were probably more due to his semi-frequent use on 3 days rest. There was even talk of doing it once earlier this season too, I believe.

I don't see how 110 pitches in 7 or 8 innings versus 110 in 9 innings is going to make much of a difference as far as wear on the arm is concerned.

The Marlins CG run early in the season was the same type of deal. The pitch counts weren't high, so why take the guy out just because he has gone 7 or 8 innings?
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Postby beltrans_boy » Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:27 am

Halladay is easily a top-5 pitcher when he's healthy, I'm upset that I underestimated his draft position in my main league. I thought I could get him in the 6th round...

:-o
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Postby Krunk City King$ » Wed Jun 08, 2005 3:23 am

Madison wrote:
Why is Smoltz in trouble? :-?



Halladay, Smoltz in danger

June 7, 2005
David Gonos
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell David your opinion

The phrase, "Thinking outside of the box" is overused.

Jude Law, who was in 19 movies last year, is overused.

My wife's credit card is overused.

The question is: Are starting pitchers who regularly throw over 100 pitches each game overused?

Pitch counts and the owners who mind them -- this week on Sally Gonos Raphael.

It seems like each season there are a number of pitchers that throw an extraordinary amount of pitches -- either in a game, or over the course of the season -- that scare their Fantasy owners.

But is the question a reasonable one to ask? In this day and age with middle relievers, setup men, closers and the five-man rotation in full effect, should pitchers that throw 115-plus pitches per outing be considered overworked? Or is there more to the equation?

Livan Hernandez threw an impressive 150 pitches in nine innings against his the Marlins on Friday -- and he didn't even factor into the decision!


Roy Halladay is on pace this year for 260 innings.
Hernandez has been by far the biggest workhorse and has already thrown 1,514 pitches in 13 starts. That's almost 120 pitches more than any other pitcher in the majors. Does that mean he is destined for either a long stint on the DL or possibly a career-threatening injury? When you consider he has been accumulating high pitch counts for the past few seasons, you have to assume that he is just built differently. There have been times this season when his velocity has been stronger in the ninth inning than it was in the first. He led the league in 2004 with 3,926 pitches thrown and was top five in 2003 with 3,582. As a matter of fact, Hernandez has been in the top five among pitchers in total pitches thrown in four of the past five seasons (in 2002, he was ranked 14th).

There are numerous hard throwers throughout history that have performed well into their later years with minimal problems. Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens are two that come to mind.

The fact that Hernandez throws so many pitches is not enough alone to condemn him to a future on the DL. His mechanics and injury history have to be taken into account. And nothing suggests he, or his Fantasy owners, are doomed for DL time.

Most pitches this season
Player #Pit K/9
1 L. Hernandez, WAS 1,514 5.52
2 Doug Davis, MIL 1,395 7.04
3 John Smoltz, ATL 1,313 6.80
4 C. Zambrano, CHC 1,296 8.47
5 Brandon Webb, ARI 1,281 7.33
6 Barry Zito, OAK 1,277 5.83
7 Mark Buehrle, CHW 1,272 5.42
8 R. Johnson, NYY 1,267 7.82
9 Chris Capuano, MIL 1,260 7.14
10 Freddy Garcia, CHW 1,257 6.26
11 Matt Clement, BOS 1,256 6.81
12 John Lackey, LAA 1,256 7.85
13 Kip Wells, PIT 1,255 7.05
14 Bartolo Colon, LAA 1,253 7.19
15 Roy Halladay, TOR 1,250 6.36

Which other high-count pitchers are in danger of injury?

Mark Buehrle, Barry Zito and Carlos Zambrano are candidates on the high-pitch count list this season.

Buehrle is another workhorse that doesn't look like he is slowing down any and Fantasy owners should feel comfortable with his presence on their team despite the 1,272 pitches he has already thrown. Zito and Zambrano, however, have already dealt with either poor pitching (Zito) or injuries (Zambrano) to this point. Their Fantasy future is not quite as bright as Buehrle's.

Brandon Webb's presence in the top 10 here is new. Last year, he threw 3,442 pitches (12th overall) and his 7.10 K/9 was impressive. This season, he ranks fifth in total pitches (1,281) and 19th in K/9 (7.33), although he still walks a few too many batters. His sinker remains one of the best in the majors, but his unorthodox delivery could give him trouble in the future.

Dontrelle Willis' high leg kick is reason enough to think he is a DL candidate waiting to happen. He's an efficient pitcher for the most part and his 1,107 pitches this season don't even place him among the top 50 -- despite three complete games. Seventy-one pitchers have higher pitches per plate appearance than Willis' 3.57. But remember, he has always been a fast starter. An injury or a losing slide is definitely a stronger possibility at this point than him continuing to dominate the National League. We'll see how that plays out.

Starter-turned-closer-turned-starter John Smoltz is third in the league with 1,313 pitches thrown already this season. That's scary for a pitcher at his age with Tommy John surgery already on his medical chart.

The quest for complete games
Many pitchers who are looking good in the seventh and eighth innings will be given extra length on their leash for the possibility of throwing a complete game. That's music to the ears of head-to-head league owners. But complete games are slowly being phased out of baseball as team's use specialists for each inning.

Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson each pieced together 12 or more complete games in different seasons in the late '90s. But outside of those three players -- and a scattered handful of others -- the majors has not seen innings eaters like the league once had 15 or 20 years ago.

Complete games mean bonus points in most head-to-head leagues, so Roy Halladay's majors-leading four CGs mean that much more since few pitchers can go the distance. Through Monday, only 11 pitchers in the majors have more than one CG. And Halladay and Willis are the only starters with more than two.

Halladay's shoulder tendinitis from a season ago is sleeping at the moment, but don't fool yourself into thinking he is in mint condition. While his incredible stats two months into the season are enjoyable to say the least, realize that he is on pace to throw 260-plus innings -- as many as he had in his 2003 Cy Young season. That is too much wear and tear on his shoulder.

Before the Big Three in Oakland ...
Back when Billy Beane was still Moneyball-ing his way through the minors in the early '80s, way before Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito arrived in Oakland, the A's staff was accomplishing feats that many Fantasy owners would kill for.

In 1980, Oakland had five different starters post at least 10 complete games. Steve McCatty threw 11 complete games alone -- good enough to lead the majors in eight of the past 11 seasons.

And he was their fourth starter!

Eleven complete games in 31 starts are amazing by today's standards, but back then, he was below average on his own team. Fellow starters Matt Keough posted 20 complete games in 32 starts, Mike Norris had 24 in 33 and staff ace Rick Langford led the team with an absolutely mind-boggling 28 CGs in 33 starts. The team's fifth starter, Brian Kingman, even notched double-digits in complete games with 10. All five starters finished the season with 200-pus innings.

In a standard Head-to-Head scoring system, a complete game could be worth as few as five and as many as 10 points. Langford's 28 complete games meant an additional 140 to 280 points for his Fantasy owner. He only had two shutouts that season however.

In an interview published in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, McCatty explained that hard-driving manager Billy Martin was the reason for their high pitch counts. McCatty estimated that he threw between 135 and 145 pitches for complete game. And once, in a 14-inning game against Seattle, he threw 207 pitches -- and lost. "I wanted to keep going because Norris, Langford and Keough the year before had gone 14 innings and won," he said.

Admittedly so, these pitchers did not have the longest shelf life in baseball. By 1983, almost all five pitchers were essentially done.

I will revisit the high-pitch count pitcher's list later in the year, but at this point, it's difficult to pin down any one reason for overuse. But it's safe to say that a red flag should go up for anyone owning Halladay, Smoltz or Willis.

The word "overuse," which has been used seven times in this piece, is overused.
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Postby nikku88 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 3:32 am

I wouldn't trust fantasy writers for what pitchers are in trouble. There's no research, just looking at innings.
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Postby thehat » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:04 am

nikku88 wrote:I wouldn't trust fantasy writers for what pitchers are in trouble. There's no research, just looking at innings.


I'm with you, nikku. I stopped reading what these guys are writing years ago. I'm pretty sure I know more than they do for the most part. And I'm not the only one here that can say that with confidence.
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Postby Twinskies » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:25 am

thehat wrote:
nikku88 wrote:I wouldn't trust fantasy writers for what pitchers are in trouble. There's no research, just looking at innings.


I'm with you, nikku. I stopped reading what these guys are writing years ago. I'm pretty sure I know more than they do for the most part. And I'm not the only one here that can say that with confidence.



Come of these fantasy writers are ridiculous. Using this rationale, Miguel Tejada would be considered an injury risk...not likely. Like i said ealrier, this is pure speculation. It usually takes more than just an extended amount of innings for a pitcher to develop an injury.
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Postby RC » Wed Jun 08, 2005 9:21 am

Krunk City King$ wrote:Halladay, Smoltz in danger


June 7, 2005
David Gonos
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell David your opinion


Complete games mean bonus points in most head-to-head leagues, so Roy Halladay's majors-leading four CGs mean that much more since few pitchers can go the distance. Through Monday, only 11 pitchers in the majors have more than one CG. And Halladay and Willis are the only starters with more than two.

Halladay's shoulder tendinitis from a season ago is sleeping at the moment, but don't fool yourself into thinking he is in mint condition. While his incredible stats two months into the season are enjoyable to say the least, realize that he is on pace to throw 260-plus innings -- as many as he had in his 2003 Cy Young season. That is too much wear and tear on his shoulder.


If the Jays are going to ride him as hard as they have over the past 2 months, you have to believe that his shoulder is healthy.

Funny how everyone was raving last year about this new PNF technique the trainers have been using to strengthen the pitcher's arms and then Halladay went done last year and Lilly went down this year. I only mention that because there's a precedent for the Jays to overwork their pitchers in the off season. As a trainer, I also disagree with this PNF technique, if I understand it correctly (which I very well may not).

I don't completely trust the Jays training staff with our guys' arms, so there's always a chance of him being overworked. Gibbons was a catcher though and he has excellent instincts when it comes to pitchers, so I trust him. ;-D
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Postby proninja » Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:55 am

I traded halladay a month ago :~(

Halladay and B. Roberts for Teix and C. Guillen. . .I'm really not so sure how I feel about it now.
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Postby jskidder » Wed Jun 08, 2005 3:58 pm

# of pitches thrown in halladay's 4 cg's:

97, 99, 115, 117

i don't see any reason for concern.
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