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What is the better strategic gamble for me?

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What is the better strategic gamble for me?

Postby great gretzky » Thu Jun 30, 2005 1:54 pm

In my one league, I am in a rough spot with both steals and saves. I could theoretically move decently up in both, but I don't want to go for both and end up with none. Should I trade FOR steals or saves (asking for general advice here, not a specific trade)

11 teams:

in steals the order is: 88,83,79,77,65,63,59,56,49,47 (me),30

I have beltran, damon, patterson, freel

in saves the order is: 70,56,53,51,49 (me),48,45,41,32,25,18

I have wickman, dempster -- and lyon on the dl, mota.

the people in my general grouping all have the same number of closers.

my question is, do I use a tradeable asset like livan hernandez on a closer or a stealer? I am wavering on this. IF mota and lyon get their jobs back, I am set anyway. But steals offers the most potential reward.

The guy with 18 in saves can't catch up, and he has guardardo, foulke, brazoban. I finally convinced him he can't catch up, but now he is asking too much. so my fear is he trades the closer to a competitor.

any thoguhts?
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Postby MMoNeY24 » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:02 pm

I think I would go for saves in your case. If you tie in a bunch of saves together, even though they're a toss-up of when there will be save opps, you can cruise into 2nd place in saves. With the steals, I would think that they'd be both harder to acquire and use because it only takes 2 or 3 players to have a high score in steals, and I don't know who would want to move them in your league. I think you could go hard after top notch closers and still be good in steals. Beltran has been quoted in saying he's gonna steal more now that he's healthy, and you could be able to work a smaller deal for a cheap steals guy, or ones that aren't playing to potential hitting-wise like Pierre or Furcal. So my thought would be go harder for saves, and casually for steals (just to stay where you are and possibly improve, but not lose ground in SB).
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Postby great gretzky » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:10 pm

thanks a lot. the one mitigating thing that i need to mention is the top guy has c.cordero, nathan, walker, the next guy won't move any of them, he has five guys, krod, turnbow then a bunch of crud. it seems after that though, everyone has 2 closers, and the last guy has three, two of whom might be demoted/traded. and he wants a ransom for brazoban. he wanted livan hernandez and cory patterson.

I think the people with two are reluctant to trade them.
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Postby bdrotoronto » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:32 pm

Go for the saves, you are very far behind in steals and even if you punted you'd only lose one point from where you are right now. Whereas there are a lot of guys on your heels in saves, you can potentially lose several points if you don't stay strong there. There is also a better chance of you moving up two or three spots in that category too.

See if the top guy will trade Cordero or Nathan, he seems to have a fairly comfortable lead and might be willing to move someone.
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Postby great gretzky » Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:02 pm

thanks, for the advice. I overpaid, but I felt I had to because the guy was about to have a closer auction and I would have lost spots.
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