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Lowe, Perez, Schmidt?

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Lowe, Perez, Schmidt?

Postby Guest » Tue Jun 17, 2003 10:58 am

On Thurs. Lowe is @ CWS and Perez and Schmidt face off against each other in SF.

Who should be started?
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:09 am

Schmidt, Schmidt, Schmidt, Schmidt, Schmidt
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Postby Madison » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:21 am

All 3. The Sox are still struggling. Perez and Schmidt in Pac Bell should be a pitcher's duel.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Jun 17, 2003 3:14 pm

I'd start all 3 too.
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Postby jdh » Tue Jun 17, 2003 3:28 pm

Definitely start Perez and Schmidt, they are top 20 pitchers that you should pretty much use every time out except in Coors. Lowe is a little more risky since he has yet to have a good road start against a decent team. His only two road starts where he didn't get lit up where in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee.

Lowe is a career 0-1, 4.44 ERA at Comiskey/US Cellular.
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Postby Guest » Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:27 pm

I'm looking for wins here and am on pace for +80 over the innings limit. I'd prefer not to start both Perez and Schmidt. Should I just start Schmidt and not Perez? Perez's last few starts haven't been good.

And would Lowe not be worth the risk either? I really need to start benching more starting pitchers, as I've been starting almost ever one so far.
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Postby jdh » Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:33 pm

Basically, even with an innings limit, you should start all your pitchers that have favorable matchups. You may as well get as many favorable matchups as possible, because you never know what may happen with injuries later in the season. Plus, it's no big deal if you hit the innings limit because then you can trade your pitchers to stock up on offense for the rest of the season.

I would start Perez and Schmidt but bench Lowe, given his road woes so far this year. Dodger Stadium is a favorable park and neither the Giants or the Dodgers have great offenses so it will be a low scoring game. If you try to start only one of them, without a doubt I have always found you choose the wrong one and still don't get the win. Start them both to give yourself an 80% chance of a win. That's as economical a use of innings as you'll get anyway.
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Postby Guest » Thu Jun 19, 2003 10:45 am

Hedging my bets for a win would be a good idea. I didn't do that on one occasion and picked wrong, as you stated.

:-b

I just find it difficult to decide which matchups aren't favorable enough to start. It's probably because I've benched a couple of winning pitchers in the past. What factors should be looked at and be important in such a decision?

:-?
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Postby jdh » Thu Jun 19, 2003 11:52 am

Well, you can look at matchups, and look at the probability that your pitcher's team will beat the opposing team. IE, if you have Brian Lawrence, you pretty much know the chances of SD giving him any run support are pretty low. You can also use Yahoo's stat splits to look at the pitchers career record vs that team, at that stadium and vs individual hitters. When it all comes down to it, basically there is no sure fired way to choose starts. I think if you have solid starting pitchers the best thing is to just use them pretty much everywhere other than Coors. If you use up all your innnings, you can always trade your pitchers for other things.

Granted, you may want to hold of starting some of your more marginal pitchers against strong offenses (Atlanta, St. Louis, Toronto, Boston, Yankees), but Perez and Schmidt are both guys you want to start each time.
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Postby Guest » Thu Jun 19, 2003 12:53 pm

After looking at Lowe's stats I'm still uncertain as to whether to start him. He's going for a fifth straight win, is 4-0 with a 2.99 ERA over his last six starts.

Hmmm, the funny thing is that I'm going to end up regreting my decision, whatever it is (because it'll be the wrong one).

:-P
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