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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:23 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And more, a sabermetric view on Bagwell, behind the numbers:

Plate discipline/contact ability: as players start to lose it, it shows up in an expanding strike zone, leading to fewer walks and more Ks. Here's Bagwell's BB/K since its peak in 1998: 1.21, 1.17, 0.92, 0.79, 0.78, 0.74, 0.73.

Power: as players age, their ability to drive the ball drops. Homers become doubles and warning track fly balls. Doubles become singles and lazy cans of corn. One of the best focused measures of power is Isolated Power, invented by Branch Rickey. Here's Bagwell's isolated power since its peak in 1997: 306, 254, 286, 305, 280, 228, 246, 199

Note that these tend to be leading indicators. Somebody looking at his numbers 1997-2000 would have recognized that Bagwell was a 1.000 OPS guy then, but was headed into the 900s. Anybody looking at his 2001-2002 numbers clearly sees a guy with a 900 OPS headed for the 800s.

And anybody looking at the 2003-04 sees a guy with an 800 OPS headed for the 700s.



For a nice graphical view of Bagwell's performance, check out this chart:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=4551

That picture tells the tale.
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Postby wrveres » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:40 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And more, a sabermetric view on Bagwell, behind the numbers:

Plate discipline/contact ability: as players start to lose it, it shows up in an expanding strike zone, leading to fewer walks and more Ks. Here's Bagwell's BB/K since its peak in 1998: 1.21, 1.17, 0.92, 0.79, 0.78, 0.74, 0.73.

Power: as players age, their ability to drive the ball drops. Homers become doubles and warning track fly balls. Doubles become singles and lazy cans of corn. One of the best focused measures of power is Isolated Power, invented by Branch Rickey. Here's Bagwell's isolated power since its peak in 1997: 306, 254, 286, 305, 280, 228, 246, 199

Note that these tend to be leading indicators. Somebody looking at his numbers 1997-2000 would have recognized that Bagwell was a 1.000 OPS guy then, but was headed into the 900s. Anybody looking at his 2001-2002 numbers clearly sees a guy with a 900 OPS headed for the 800s.

And anybody looking at the 2003-04 sees a guy with an 800 OPS headed for the 700s.



For a nice graphical view of Bagwell's performance, check out this chart:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=4551

That picture tells the tale.


Look GTWMA . ;-) .. I will gladly agree with you that Bagwell is not what he once was, and even carries an injury risk into the 2006 season.
But according to your chart here, in 2003 Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell produced (wins above replacement) at the same level as Berkman did this year. In 2004, he played hurt and in 2005 he sat out. ..

so I will say it again.

If Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell is sitting out their late in my draft, and is looking healthy, I will be taking a chance on him. Its a low risk, nice reward situation. Heck I grabbed him off the wire this year in September, and stuck him on my bench. I can keep him for 5.00 and I just might now .....

Out of respect!
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:47 am

WR.......I miss the other avatar. :-)
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Postby wrveres » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:00 am

Lofunzo wrote:WR.......I miss the other avatar. :-)


which one ... There have been so many ...

You mean the 'ol blinking golden trophy one? I haven't used that in years O:-)
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 am

wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:WR.......I miss the other avatar. :-)


which one ... There have been so many ...

You mean the 'ol blinking golden trophy one? I haven't used that in years O:-)


No. The fat guy with the bat. I got so used to it that it was embedded into my brain. :-)
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:14 am

wrveres wrote:Look GTWMA . ;-) .. I will gladly agree with you that Bagwell is not what he once was, and even carries an injury risk into the 2006 season.
But according to your chart here, in 2003 Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell produced (wins above replacement) at the same level as Berkman did this year. In 2004, he played hurt and in 2005 he sat out. ..

so I will say it again.

If Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell is sitting out their late in my draft, and is looking healthy, I will be taking a chance on him. Its a low risk, nice reward situation. Heck I grabbed him off the wire this year in September, and stuck him on my bench. I can keep him for 5.00 and I just might now .....

Out of respect!


Edgar Martinez outhit both Bagwell and Berkman in 2003...which shows how relevant 2003 is.

I'd take that $5.00 and pick up 5 rookies at a $1 each. The chances of that strategy succeeding exceeds the chance of a major rebound by Bagwell by the distance of Pujols game 5 HR.
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Postby wrveres » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:16 am

Lofunzo wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:WR.......I miss the other avatar. :-)


which one ... There have been so many ...

You mean the 'ol blinking golden trophy one? I haven't used that in years O:-)


No. The fat guy with the bat. I got so used to it that it was embedded into my brain. :-)


ahhh the "Swinging Friar", He isn't gone and will be back. He didn't have a very good season so he is going to sit for a while ... and I'll try something different ...

I guess it depends upon my mood.

Say Hello to Jake. ;-D
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Postby wrveres » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:21 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
wrveres wrote:Look GTWMA . ;-) .. I will gladly agree with you that Bagwell is not what he once was, and even carries an injury risk into the 2006 season.
But according to your chart here, in 2003 Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell produced (wins above replacement) at the same level as Berkman did this year. In 2004, he played hurt and in 2005 he sat out. ..

so I will say it again.

If Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell is sitting out their late in my draft, and is looking healthy, I will be taking a chance on him. Its a low risk, nice reward situation. Heck I grabbed him off the wire this year in September, and stuck him on my bench. I can keep him for 5.00 and I just might now .....

Out of respect!


Edgar Martinez outhit both Bagwell and Berkman in 2003...which shows how relevant 2003 is.

I'd take that $5.00 and pick up 5 rookies at a $1 each. The chances of that strategy succeeding exceeds the chance of a major rebound by Bagwell by the distance of Pujols game 5 HR.


you would also have to use 5 roster spots with about the same risk/reward as my one roster spot. And if Edgar was still playing, I'd take a chance on him too. He was always the perfect end-game draft pick anyways.
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:03 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
wrveres wrote:Look GTWMA . ;-) .. I will gladly agree with you that Bagwell is not what he once was, and even carries an injury risk into the 2006 season.
But according to your chart here, in 2003 Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell produced (wins above replacement) at the same level as Berkman did this year. In 2004, he played hurt and in 2005 he sat out. ..

so I will say it again.

If Jeff "Sucky" Bagwell is sitting out their late in my draft, and is looking healthy, I will be taking a chance on him. Its a low risk, nice reward situation. Heck I grabbed him off the wire this year in September, and stuck him on my bench. I can keep him for 5.00 and I just might now .....

Out of respect!


Edgar Martinez outhit both Bagwell and Berkman in 2003...which shows how relevant 2003 is.

I'd take that $5.00 and pick up 5 rookies at a $1 each. The chances of that strategy succeeding exceeds the chance of a major rebound by Bagwell by the distance of Pujols game 5 HR.


How did Griffey do in 2003 compared to 2005?? ;-7 It's all relevant. WR is talking about taking a really late round flier on him (20+ round). While some people might want to gamble on a perrenial bust like Armas, Jr., he is taking a shot on him. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Worst case is that he can drop him like most people do with picks that late. Now, if he was touting him as Comback Player of the Year and wanted to use a 10th rounder on him, I would be all over him. :-°
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:30 pm

Lofunzo wrote:How did Griffey do in 2003 compared to 2005?? ;-7 It's all relevant. WR is talking about taking a really late round flier on him (20+ round). While some people might want to gamble on a perrenial bust like Armas, Jr., he is taking a shot on him. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Worst case is that he can drop him like most people do with picks that late. Now, if he was touting him as Comback Player of the Year and wanted to use a 10th rounder on him, I would be all over him. :-°


Apples and oranges. Bagwell will be two years older in 2006 than Griffey was in 2005. I know that sounds like very little, but if you understand age adjustment that alone reduces a projection for Bagwell compared to Griffey by 10%.

Griffey's three year OPS trend prior to 2005 was 784, 936, 864 for a Marcel projection prior to age adjustment of 874

Bagwell's three year trend prior to 2006 is 897, 842, 738, for a Marcel projection prior to the larger age adjustment of 799.

IOW, Griffey's 2005, while unusual, was well within reason of even a simple projection, exceeding the projected value by a little less than 8%.

Bagwell's by comparison, might have a 10% chance or so of getting up to an OPS of 850, but his chance of posting what Griffey did is less than 1 percent. Given the trend, he's much more likely to pull a Sosa, than a Griffey.

I don't disagree with taking flyers in those late rounds. But, you get much better flyer value grabbing a young kid or a reasonable rebound candidate in his early 30s. For example, my late round flyers last year were Tracy, Barmes, and Cliff Floyd.

The worst case IS that you drop him and have to get whatever is left on waivers, while somebody like me has three or four guys producing like that. It's a huge hurdle to overcome.
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