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Put out to pasture in "06"

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Postby carter » Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:55 pm

this is a cool thread.. i'm gonna make my sleeper list out of this


thanks cafe ;-D ;-D ;-D
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:24 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:How did Griffey do in 2003 compared to 2005?? ;-7 It's all relevant. WR is talking about taking a really late round flier on him (20+ round). While some people might want to gamble on a perrenial bust like Armas, Jr., he is taking a shot on him. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Worst case is that he can drop him like most people do with picks that late. Now, if he was touting him as Comback Player of the Year and wanted to use a 10th rounder on him, I would be all over him. :-°


Apples and oranges. Bagwell will be two years older in 2006 than Griffey was in 2005. I know that sounds like very little, but if you understand age adjustment that alone reduces a projection for Bagwell compared to Griffey by 10%.

Griffey's three year OPS trend prior to 2005 was 784, 936, 864 for a Marcel projection prior to age adjustment of 874

Bagwell's three year trend prior to 2006 is 897, 842, 738, for a Marcel projection prior to the larger age adjustment of 799.

IOW, Griffey's 2005, while unusual, was well within reason of even a simple projection, exceeding the projected value by a little less than 8%.

Bagwell's by comparison, might have a 10% chance or so of getting up to an OPS of 850, but his chance of posting what Griffey did is less than 1 percent. Given the trend, he's much more likely to pull a Sosa, than a Griffey.

I don't disagree with taking flyers in those late rounds. But, you get much better flyer value grabbing a young kid or a reasonable rebound candidate in his early 30s. For example, my late round flyers last year were Tracy, Barmes, and Cliff Floyd.

The worst case IS that you drop him and have to get whatever is left on waivers, while somebody like me has three or four guys producing like that. It's a huge hurdle to overcome.


You missed the main point that I was trying to make. Everyone will forget about Bagwell next season. If WR wants to take a chance on him in the last or next to last round, I don't see a problem with it. I will guarantee you that there are better players floating on the WW that 95% of all managers will draft in those last few rounds so, if his gamble doesn't work out, he will definitely have options there.

I respect the fact that you have formulas and can possibly predict what he will do next season. I won't even draft him unless he somehow falls on my lap. I'm just saying that unless a few sleepers fall through the cracks in the last 2 rounds, more than likely, they will eventually be dropped for someone that pops up on the WW. That's why I don't mind mixing in a few gambles on draft day.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:42 am

Lofunzo wrote:You missed the main point that I was trying to make. Everyone will forget about Bagwell next season. If WR wants to take a chance on him in the last or next to last round, I don't see a problem with it. I will guarantee you that there are better players floating on the WW that 95% of all managers will draft in those last few rounds so, if his gamble doesn't work out, he will definitely have options there.

I respect the fact that you have formulas and can possibly predict what he will do next season. I won't even draft him unless he somehow falls on my lap. I'm just saying that unless a few sleepers fall through the cracks in the last 2 rounds, more than likely, they will eventually be dropped for someone that pops up on the WW. That's why I don't mind mixing in a few gambles on draft day.


I don't think I miss your point at all, Lofunzo. The question is whether you take a few gambles in those last few picks. The question is what are good gambles and what are not so good gambles. My point is that Bagwell is not a very good gamble. His upside is limited, in that he'll probably have a low chance of producing an OPS in the 850-875 range, which won't even crack the top 20 first basemen. The downside is a collapse, in which case you have to replace him with waiver material.

I also question, unless you are playing in a noncompetitive league, that you can outdo good managers late round gambles off the wiaver wire, especially when those same managers are trolling the same waiver wire. How many waiver wire players outdid Floyd or Tracy last year?

Finally, I also question, under the circumstances wrveres said he would pick Bagwell, that he would drop to the bottom. As he said, "if he is loking healthy..." If so, Bagwell's not going to be available in round 20-25. He'll go at the latest in round 15-18.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Nov 12, 2005 9:43 am

Baseball Primer posted their predictions for the Astros, so I thought I'd share it:

Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS

Bagwell 1b .239 .327 .405 138 486 72 116 22 1 19 73 60 115 5 4
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 07, 2006 5:21 pm

Those of you who participated in this thread on Bagwell, might be interested in this. Looks like there may be a good possibility that Bags puts himself out to pasture.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/01/l ... ros_b.html
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Postby kentx12 » Sat Jan 07, 2006 5:24 pm

revenge_of_the_cards wrote:Beltre, Sosa, Thome, C Patterson, K Matsui, Hinske just to name a few.



Wow, im suprised you are saying to avoid Thome. I have him as one of my biggest draft day must gets. I believe he can be had real late in most drafts and can easily get you 30 to 35 hr's and 100 rbi's.
There will come a day when Barry Bonds leaves baseball, and everything about the game will be the better for it.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Jan 07, 2006 6:07 pm

kentx12 wrote:
revenge_of_the_cards wrote:Beltre, Sosa, Thome, C Patterson, K Matsui, Hinske just to name a few.



Wow, im suprised you are saying to avoid Thome. I have him as one of my biggest draft day must gets. I believe he can be had real late in most drafts and can easily get you 30 to 35 hr's and 100 rbi's.


I'm actually down on him as well. I'm not convinced that he can stay healthy. :-/
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Postby stevethumb » Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:59 pm

this team belongs in a pasture somewhere...

C ivan rodriquez
1B jbagwell
2B mloretta
3B vcastilla
SS jvizcaino
OF ssosa
OF bwilliams
Of sfinley
UT rpalmeiro/twomack

SP Kbrown
SP ollie perez
SP Russ ortiz
SP jsmoltz
SP rfranklin

tworrell/tpercival
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Jan 08, 2006 12:31 pm

Good thread, very entertaining stuff, if a bit Bagwell heavy for a while. Thome is intriguing to me though, I think that he could be nicely productive for the Chisox and a decent fill in in a later round. I'm torn between grabbing an 'elite' 1B and punting it. Thome in the 12th round w/ 30 HR might be worth more, in a team sense, than say Teixeira in the late first or second round you know? I have to say I agree w/ just about every other guy on these lists. I am about 3/4 of the way through Baseball Forecaster and want to avoid geezers at all costs.

I also agree that IF anyone picks Sammy Sosa, people will be spraying beer out of their noses laughing at them...
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Postby BritSox » Sun Jan 08, 2006 12:35 pm

Is Sosa even going to have a team next year?
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