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Under the radar guy, Chad Tracy?

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:08 pm
by Subversive
I was just digging through stats to see some available players in my dynasty league and I see Chad Tracy had nearly 300TB last year. You guys think he's a good bet to do it again or improve?

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:15 pm
by Havok1517
He's gonna be big next year, count on it. Plus, multiple position eligible. I luv to dude. Major sleeper for me, he reminds me of Huff when he was happy and produced.

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:49 pm
by GotowarMissAgnes
In terms of under the radar, I think you are a year too late on Tracy. On the strength of BaseballProspectus last year, I made him a late round pick in my 2005 draft and was VERY happy with his performance. I don't think he'll be available in round 22 in 2006--that's where I got him.

This year, I'd expect more of the same to a slight decline. This was towards the top end of what I think he was capable of doing. Here's what Baseball Primer's projecting for 2006:

Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Tracy* 3b .294 .349 .460 148 530 69 156 31 3 17 70 43 64 2 2

I think that's a little on the low side.

I'd expect something like: .300/.350/.500 for BA/OBP/SLG with 75 R and RBIs and 23 HRs.

One concern may be the the D'backs have some excellent prospects, so Tracy could be traded or could lose PT if he slumps.

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:53 pm
by RynMan
Very high on Tracy, particularly if the D-Backs stop experimenting with him in the OF. I'd be happy to see them move Glaus and have him play 3B. Like GTWMA said, the D-Backs are shopping him so be aware he may not be playing in a nice hitters park for long...

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:59 pm
by Jivedude
What are the chances he ends up in Boston playing 1B? :-?

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:02 pm
by Havok1517
Who? Tracy = None, Glaus = Maybe, Orioles want him for 1B, why not Boston?

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:16 pm
by Yoda
I think Tracy overachieved in 05. He may hit for a high average but I don't see his power returning to 25+ HR level. I'd expect something like .290-.300, 15-20 HR type season.

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:00 pm
by Pedantic
Yoda wrote:I think Tracy overachieved in 05. He may hit for a high average but I don't see his power returning to 25+ HR level. I'd expect something like .290-.300, 15-20 HR type season.


I agree on the part about his power, but I think he'll hit for a higher average than that.

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:06 pm
by hybrid
Pedantic wrote:
Yoda wrote:I think Tracy overachieved in 05. He may hit for a high average but I don't see his power returning to 25+ HR level. I'd expect something like .290-.300, 15-20 HR type season.


I agree on the part about his power, but I think he'll hit for a higher average than that.


Def. agree about his power, never known for power and I wouldn't be suprised is that is his career year power wise. On his AVG. he is pretty good hitter so I think he will for the most part always be puttng up an AVG. around .300.

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:24 pm
by GotowarMissAgnes
People focus WAY too much on HRs in the minor leagues as a predictor of a player's power potential in the majors. Tracy had only 8 HRs in 2002. But he had 39 doubles and 5 triples and a slugging percentage of .486. Only 10 HRs the next year, but 35 2B and 3B. Only 8 HRs his first year in the bigs, but again 32 other extra base hits in just 481 ABs.

"Power remains the one ability that's eluded him, but he's amassed enough doubles to give one hope." BP 2005.

Tracy's a legit .475 to .550 slugger. Look for HRs in the low 20s, if he gets a full season of ABs.