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Bobby Abreu - Jason Bay - Miguel Cabrera

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Postby bigken117 » Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:01 am

without reading everyone's arguements since I'm lazy...

Cabs - F* the "lack of lineup protection" he's the truth and his upside ranks him above

Abreu - Coors East gives him the nod over
Bay - who I like, but he's no Cabrera. If he got traded for Abreu and got to hit in Philly, I would switch these spots.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:08 am

bigken117 wrote:without reading everyone's arguements since I'm lazy...

Cabs - F* the "lack of lineup protection" he's the truth and his upside ranks him above

Abreu - Coors East gives him the nod over
Bay - who I like, but he's no Cabrera. If he got traded for Abreu and got to hit in Philly, I would switch these spots.


Of course, because the ballpark switch would be factor that would increase Bay's value and decrease Abreu's.

But since all we're really trying to do is decide whether these guys will do better or worse than they did last year (and from that, conclude which of them is better), it doesn't really make sense to take the park into account if it's something that's staying constant. In other words, Abreu hit 24 HR in Philly last year and Bay hit 32 in Pittsburgh. It's true that Abreu hits in the better park. But since he hit in that park last year, then it's already taken into account by looking at last year's stats.
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Postby ayebatter » Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:52 am

Mcab
Abreu



Bay
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Postby RynMan » Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:13 am

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:But since all we're really trying to do is decide whether these guys will do better or worse than they did last year (and from that, conclude which of them is better), it doesn't really make sense to take the park into account if it's something that's staying constant. In other words, Abreu hit 24 HR in Philly last year and Bay hit 32 in Pittsburgh. It's true that Abreu hits in the better park. But since he hit in that park last year, then it's already taken into account by looking at last year's stats.


Exactly, and I doubt he hits with more power next year either.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:19 am

MCab will probably have a lower batting average this next season due to a few things:

- His BABIP was abnormally high given the fact that he's not a fact runner.

- He's not exactly a patient hitter, so with no protection around him (meaning less quality pitches to see) he'll end up chasing a lot. Granted his production numbers may not suffer (since he'll be swinging often), but his average will.

I could see a .290-35-110-110-X line this next season. X would obviously be a low number.
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Postby RynMan » Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:27 am

davidmarver wrote:- His BABIP was abnormally high given the fact that he's not a fact runner.


How high?
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:45 am

RynMan wrote:
davidmarver wrote:- His BABIP was abnormally high given the fact that he's not a fact runner.


How high?

.363. For comparison, David Wright had a higher LD% (line-drives are hits around 75% of the time), popped up less, and is a much faster (and better) baserunner, yet his BABIP was only .343. The league average for BABIP in the NL hovers just above .300.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:40 am

RynMan wrote:I looked into this a little more based on my belief that Abreu is in decline.

Look at his stats for May:

AVG .396
OBP .535
SLG .792
11 HR. 8-o

He may retain solid roto value, particularly in OBP leagues, but proved a waste of a first-rounder down the stretch in my H2H last summer.

Look at his stats post-All Star break:

AVG .260
OBP .376
SLG .411
HR 6 (73 games) 8-o

I'll go MCab, Bay, Abreu ... but they're not wildly far apart on my sheet.
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Re: interesting

Postby BronXBombers51 » Fri Jan 06, 2006 6:53 am

Snakes Gould wrote:i did not see you say this is the first round correct? im assuming cabrera and abreu will go in the first round and bay, even though he is hyped up this year, he should not go in the first. i would think bay would go at the end of 2nd, beginning of the 3rd, while the other two will go in the first...you may be able to swing 2 out of 3. my list is cabrera, bay, abreu....cabrera will have little protection indeed, but the marlins will find a way to get at least 75 wins, which isnt terrible. his 3b increases his value and he should hit .325-.330 this year.


I'd like to join a league where I can get Bay 3rd round. :-°
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