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David Luciani/Baseball Notebook Projections????

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Postby Ender » Wed Jan 11, 2006 9:13 pm

Go check previous seasons of Sickels projections and you'll find plenty of players that he was wrong about as well. If judging minor league talent were easy there would be a lot fewer players with short failed major league careers out there~
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Postby bigken117 » Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:39 pm

Check the all-time BA top 100 lists...they aren't gold either. I repsect what BA does, and what Luciani does. If people want to ridicule his work, don't bother reading him.!/baseballcafe

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Postby dannyolbb » Thu Jan 12, 2006 12:42 am

Combining this post: ... highlight=

with the one right above me I came up with the top 10 list from both Luciani and Baseball America from 1994.


#1 Carlos Delgado C TOR
#2 Chipper Jones SS ATL
#3 Javier Lopez C ATL
#4 Ryan Klesko 1B ATL
#5 Eddie Guardardo P MIN
#6 Rich Aude 1B PIT
#7 Billy Ashley OF LA
#8 Mike Hampton P HOU -
#9 Raul Mondesi OF LA
#10 Bob Hamelin 1B KC
#11 Carl Everett OF FLO -
#12 Dave Staton 1B SD -
#13 Tony Tarasco OF ATL -
#14 Steve Trachsel P CHC -
#15 Shane Reynolds P HOU -
#16 Kirk Rueter P MON -
#17 Omar Daal P LA -
#18 Jim Leyritz C NYY
#19 J.R. Phillips 1B SF -
#20 John Ruffin P CIN
#21 Turk Wendell P CHC -
#22 Xavier Hernandez P NYY
#23 Cliff Floyd 1B MON
#24 Jeromy Burnitz OF NYM -
#25 David Weathers P FLO -
#26 Brian Anderson P CAL
#27 Julian Tavarez P CLE -
#28 Scott Brosius OF OAK
#29 Alex Gonzalez SS TOR -
#30 Tony Womack SS PIT -
#31 Albie Lopez P CLE
#32 Dave Mlicki P CLE
#33 Dave Silvestri SS NYY
#34 Danny Bautista OF DET
#35 Jeffrey Hammonds OF BAL
#36 Salomon Torres P SF
#37 Willie Greene SS CIN
#38 Miguel Jimenez P OAK
#39 Rikkert Fanyete OF SF
#40 Tim Costo OF CIN
#41 Pedro Borbon P ATL
#42 Troy O'Leary OF MIL
#43 John DeSilva P LA
#44 Angel Miranda P MIL
#45 Henry Mercedes C OAK
#46 Sam Militello P NYY
#47 Kevin Roberson OF CHC
#48 Manny Alexander SS BAL
#49 Norberto Martin 2B CWS
#50 Chris Turner C CAL
#51 Curtis Pride OF MON
#52 ALlen Watson P STL
#53 Eddie Zambrano OF CHC
#54 Toby Borland P PHI
#55 Rich Becker OF MIN
#56 Luis Lopez 2B SD
#57 Danny Miceli P PIT
#58 Eric Wedge C COL
#59 Drew Denson 1B CWS
#60 Derek Parks C MIN
#61 Ramon Carabello 2B ATL
#62 Nate Minchey P BOS
#63 John Johnstone P FLO
#64 Roger Salkeld P SEA
#65 STeve Dixon P STL
#66 Jerry Goff C PIT
#67 Larry Luebbers P CHC
#68 P{hil LEftwich P CAL
#69 Ryan Thompson CF NYM
#70 Phil Clark 1B SD
#71 Sherman Obando OF BAL
#72 Domingo Jean P HOU
#73 Jack Voigt OF BAL
#74 Mike Butcher P CAL
#75 Greg Pirkl 1B SEA
#76 Denis Boucher P MON
#77 Keith Gordon OF CIN
#78 Nigel Wilson OF FLO
#79 Butch Huskey 3B NYM
#80 Steve Dreyer P TEX
#81 Domingo Martines 1B TOR
#82 Greg Blosser OF BOS
#83 Tito Navarro SS NYM
#84 Brad Brink P PHI
#85 Matt Mieske OF MIL


1. Cliff Floyd, 1b, Expos
2. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
3. Jeffrey Hammonds, of, Orioles
4. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Blue Jays
5. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays
6. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Mariners
7. Manny Ramirez, of, Indians
8. James Baldwin, rhp, White Sox
9. Rondell White, of, Expos
10. Jose Silva, rhp, Blue Jays
11. Darren Dreifort, rhp, Dodgers
12. Steve Karsay, rhp, Athletics
13. Trot Nixon, of, Red Sox
14. Chan Ho Park, rhp, Dodgers
15. Ryan Klesko, 1b-of, Braves
16. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
17. Javy Lopez, c, Braves
18. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
19. Jeff Granger, lhp, Royals
20. Charles Johnson, c, Marlins
21. Bill Pulsipher, lhp, Mets
22. Salomon Torres, rhp, Giants
23. Benji Gil, ss, Rangers
24. Phil Nevin, 3b, Astros
25. Michael Tucker, 2b, Royals
26. Russ Davis, 3b, Yankees
27. Todd Hollandsworth, of, Dodgers
28. Shawn Gree, of, Blue Jays
29. Terrell Wade, lhp, Braves
30. Brian Barber, rhp, Cardinals
31. Johnny Damon, of, Royals
32. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp, White Sox
33. Midre Cummings, of, Pirates
34. Makato Suzuki, rhp, Mariners
35. Marc Newfield, of, Mariners
36. Tyler Green, rhp, Phillies
37. Rich Becker, of, Twins
38. Roger Cedeno, of, Dodgers
39. Frank Rodriguez, rhp, Red Sox
40. Joey Eischen, lhp, Expos
41. Pokey Reese, ss, Reds
42. Alex Ochoa, of, Orioles
43. Preston Wilson, 3b, Mets
44. Brooks Kieschnick, of, Cubs
45. Rick Helling, rhp, Rangers
46. Orlando Miller, ss, Astros
47. Brian Hunter, of, Astros
48. Chad Mottola, of, Reds
49. John Burke, rhp, Rockies
50. Dmitri Young, 1b, Cardinals
51. Raul Mondesi, of, Dodgers
52. Carl Everett, of, Marlins
53. Johnny Ruffin, rhp, Reds
54. Tyrone Hill, lhp, Brewers
55. Ray McDavid, of, Padres
56. Brian Anderson, lhp, Angels
57. Joey Hamilton, rhp, Padres
58. Mike Kelly, of, Braves
59. Kirk Presley, rhp, Mets
60. Arquimedez Pozo, 2b, Mariners
61. Julian Tavarez, rhp, Indians
62. Kurt Miller, rhp, Marlins
63. Derek Lowe, rhp, Mariners
64. Glenn Williams, ss, Braves
65. Manny Alexander, ss, Orioles
66. D. J. Boston, 1b, Blue Jays
67. Brad Fullmer, 3b, Expos
68. Ricky Bottalico, rhp, Phillies
69. Melvin Nieves, of, Padres
70. Butch Huskey, 3b, Mets
71. Armando Benitez, rhp, Orioles
72. James Mouton, 2b, Astros
73. Todd Ritchie, rhp, Twins
74. Edgardo Alfonzo, ss, Mets
75. Rick Gorecki, rhp, Dodgers
76. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
77. Robert Ellis, rhp, White Sox
78. Billy Wagner, lhp, Astros
79. Justin Thompson, lhp, Tigers
80. Nigel Wilson, of, Marlins
81. Gabe White, lhp, Expos
82. Jim Pittsley, rhp, Royals
83. J. R. Phillips, 1b, Giants
84. Sterling Hitchcock, lhp, Yankees
85. Terrell Lowery, of, Rangers
86. Luis Ortiz, 3b, Red Sox
87. Robbie Beckett, lhp, Padres
88. Rod Henderson, rhp, Expos
89. Mark Thompson, rhp, Rockies
90. Danny Bautista, of, Tigers
91. Ron Villone, lhp, Mariners
92. LaTroy Hawkins, rhp, Twins
93. Albie Lopez, rhp, Indians
94. B. J. Wallace, lhp, Expos
95. Jeff D'Amico, rhp, Brewers
96. Wayne Gomes, rhp, Phillies
97. Jose Herrera, of, Athletics
98. Curtis Shaw, lhp, Athletics
99. Paul Spoljaric, lhp, Blue Jays
100. Roger Salkeld, rhp, Mariners

Clearly, both lists have some hits and misses. I like BA's a bit more, though, considering Luciani left off three of the biggest stars in the game completely: Derek Jeter, Arod, and Manny.
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Postby thedude » Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:54 am

I wasn't trying to say Luciani doesn't do great work with fantasy. I was simply trying to show that he is not the best source for minor league prospects. Yes I know it is not an exact science. And there is a lot of wiggle room on the rankings. As a person who has put a lot of energy and time into reading scouting reports and researching minor leaguers, i felt that Luciani had issues with his list that were not adquetly addressed.

As was noted above A-rod (a highly regarded prospect, drafted first overall in the previous year draft) was left off his list. OK, maybe he didn't include him because A-Rod had not yet played any games. But he was still considered a top prospect by others. (Think Justin Upton)

Or what about Manny? No excuse there. in 1993 He hit 340 in AA, (581 SLG%), 317 in AAA (690 SLG%). The only reason to leave off the top 100 was his poor preformene at the majors (in a mere 53 at bats he hit 170).

Praise Luciani all you want, but please consider the possibility that there are better sources for prospect info.
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