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Baseball Forecaster 2006- No projections allowed

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Baseball Forecaster 2006- No projections allowed

Postby chadlincoln » Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:05 pm

No projections since that got the last thread on this shut down.

I notice in his projections, most of them are really close to last year's numbers. I could do that, just add and drop a few numbers here or there, take away some RBI's, add a few runs, and call them projections. I was a little disappointed on the analysis in the book too. I've never read anything like this and see it as conservative rankings/projections instead of maybe reaching a little bit on guys he has feelings about. I didn't see any 'surprise' players. I only looked over it for about 15 minutes over lunch. Am I wrong here? How reliable is this thing?
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Postby thinkspin » Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:19 pm

As with most prognosticators, he does not go out on a limb.

For instance, Podsednik stole 70 something bases in 2004. Guys who publish projections are always looking to be correct, so it makes more sence for them to project 40 Bases in 2005 rahter than 75. If Pods stole 30 or 50 he would be within 10 and basically consider it a success. You tend to be more correct with an overall set of projections when you assume a player will regress to the mean.

David Luciani of BaseballNotebook writes about this type of stuff often.
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Postby dannahann » Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:39 pm

Exactly right, most guys won't stick their necks out because most people only want their projections to validate their own preconceived beliefs. Anything that's goes against the mainstream is put down as the source being unreliable (thus their sales suffer).
Truth be told tho, the best projectors are those who have the cajones to publish what their well founded models tell them to, not what everyone wants to hear. Every year members of the cafe will goes nuts ripping any projections they don't feel comfortable with. Yet the gap between the mainstream's perceived value and sound projections to the contrary. are exactly where dominant teams are built.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Jan 09, 2006 8:39 pm

I thought that it was pretty intriguing actually, I did find the projections conservative but the fact that he seems to pretty much stick to the numbers and say 'those numbers are likely to head in that direction because those other numbers were lucky' makes sense. I think that there will be players who will exceed what's called for there because of the conservatism but, for the most part, I agree w/ what's in it as 'suggestions' rather than 'predictions'. The methodology seems very reasonable and sound to me.

It might be interesting to check it by adding up all the HR though and see how it matches up to reality. Just for research purposes. I guess when the spreadsheets are released, that would be a piece of cake? Does anybody have them lying around from last year?

One thing I asked in the shutdown thread right as it got shut down was whether or not anyone has any opinions on how Baseball Forecaster compares w/ Baseball Prospectus? The methodology of BF seems to be spelled out more in the pages which seems 'better' to me but that may just be b/c I don't have BP yet. This is a bit of a concern as our draft has been pushed up to 030406 by outside events so I may have to cram BP if I do it at all and I'm not sure it'd be worth the effort.
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Postby FortheloveofJesus » Mon Jan 09, 2006 8:54 pm

I personally like them both. I find BF to be better for hitters and BP for pitchers for some reason. I agree that BF does give much better insight as to the logic behind the numbers, not just the elaborate formulas that most without knowledge of advanced mathematics and statistics cant understand the true basis for. I also like BF slightly better because it is geared more towards fantasy and less toward performance analysis. BP with things like VORP won't help you all that much in a draft. I like BF also for the PQS and MLE sections plus it provides you with fantasy cheat sheets too.

I just got my BF today, and am about to immerse myself in it tonight. I know I personally dont use his predictions that much, just his basic insight and methodology. I usually start with his predictions and change things based on my aplication of logic, intangibles, and differences in how I value certain players traits. Which is somethign Shandler encourages anyway.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Jan 09, 2006 9:48 pm

The p vs. hitters seems intriguing but I just went through the pitcher sections and kind of like the methodology although the overarching conclusion seems to be that projecting pitchers is a total crap shoot, LOL.

I have a counter theory, which I stuck in a thread which is not getting any action, is that THIS year, w/ the 5%-85% of players depending on whose accounts of speed in baseball you buy, being deprived of speed, SP are going to be more projectable and valuable. Particularly as the season goes on, as their performance will be closer to what was forecasted while many, if not all, hitters are going to struggle as the season drags on. I dunno though.
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Postby Thursday » Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:08 pm

I usually buy 3 reasonably priced baseball magazines prior to the season, and formulate my own projections. Fantasy writers are too scared to make wrong picks. I understand that more correct predictions = more sales next year, but it would be refreshing to see someone really act on gut feelings.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:22 pm

Before I tried BP last year, I had also done the 'buy a few mags' approach but, reading a couple of them compared w/ BP made me think that most of the mags are just less conservative perhaps to capitalize on the buzz you get going into drafts. The ones I read last year were WOEFUL in a lot of their suggestions and really kind of turned me off to them. It wasn't just that they got some picks wrong but it was that their wild stab predictions weren't really based on anything remotely rational.

Hanging out here is a much better solution and I'm kind of just into BP and BF for the seemingly higher level of analysis that seems to go into their predictions. Although BP seems to hold their cards a bit closer to their chests. I like having a publication of some sort to read through just to make sure that you are familiar enough w/ the whole market both during the draft and when the smack talkin' starts!! hee hee...
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Postby Thursday » Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:34 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:Hanging out here is a much better solution...


Yeah. Forgot to add that. I am a rabid Cafe-er right before the season and i'm always posting questions and answering in the Draft forum.
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Postby stevethumb » Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:05 am

one kinda edgy projection from shandler is the fact he has ben sheets as his #1 NL SP..also he has juan pierre top 8 in NL fantasy value which i am sure is higher than every other prognosticator out there..i think he does a credible job in factoring in probability of injuries into his projections
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