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Baseball Forecaster 2006- No projections allowed

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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:30 am

+1 to the injury bits, I like the way that he uses the 'reliability' score to indicate both a propensity towards getting hurt (and then buttresses that w/ the separate section dealing w/ specific injuries of record AND the list of DL days for all players...) and other, non-specific factors (although, come to think of it, I wonder if he counted 20 days off for beating up fans for Milton Bradley... :-? :-D ) but kind of keeps them separate to reiterate that YOU have to make the final decision about each guy.

I guess that everybody does that to some degree but I am very pleased w/ Shandler's openness about his methodology. It is both 'hard' and 'soft' at the same time. I am not a big fan of having anything other than tenative projections as the key thing at the draft seems to be keeping up w/ what other dudes are doing as much as being familiar w/ the players.
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Postby baseball6791 » Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:42 am

I just ordered my copy off Shandler's website since it said that you can only get the excel files if you order it directly from him and I figured that was probably worth the extra couple of bucks come draft day, but did anyone order it from him and have any idea how fast it will come?
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:52 am

I got mine @ a local bookstore like 2 days after I ordered it. Our draft has been pushed forward to 030406 so I'm shooting to get some sort of crib sheet of my own put together and decided that getting his sheets 030106 probably would not really be worth it in terms of time to review the information.
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Postby Ender » Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:06 am

If Ben Sheets is healthy he is as likely as any other pitcher except Santana to be the best out there. Last year Sheets numbers weren't as good but you have to realize for 2 months he pitched without being able to throw a curve... which is his out pitch.

The truth is baseball stats are incredibly random, a .290 hitter hits .270 one year and .310 the next... thats a huge spread. You need to be pretty safe with your projections for them to be accurate.
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Postby xeifrank » Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:30 am

They wouldn't be projections if he started making wild guesses. They'd be just that, wild guesses. Projections can really only be based on previous data, then mixed with other factors like age, changes in the lineup (moving from bottom to top of the order for example) and changing to a new team (ie - score more runs in a better lineup, ballpark factors and manager style for SB). People criticizing projections makes me chuckle some times. Because these are usually people who have never published projections themselves and opened up themselves to the same scrutiny of those that have.
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Postby FortheloveofJesus » Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:01 am

Keep in mind also Shandler's projections are almost if not completely based on BPI's and not external factors (ballpark, lineup context, etc) therefore they have to be somewhat conservative. Especially in the RBi/RS dept. Hr is somewhat arbitrary too since as he states, the difference between a 2B and a HR is usually a few feet. The difference of say a total of 100 feet of distance over a few fly balls could be the difference between 20 and 30 HR. A big difference for a fantasy leaguer. Drafting a fantasy team is less tryign to figure out who will do what and more playing the percentages. With players havign completely inexplicable dropoffs (Carlos Beltran) to injuries (Ben Sheets, Aramis Ramirez) to guys coming seemingly out of nowhere (Jorge Cantu) all you can do is try to put the chance of success in your favor. No matter how well you prepare, draft, project whatever, we're all just one big flop season, or a few big injuries away from not winning a fantasy league.
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Postby chadlincoln » Tue Jan 10, 2006 11:33 am

I had a chance to look over his mock roto draft. He based it off of scarcity at the position. I won't list the whole thing for copyright purposes, but the picks that stand out to me are:

David Wright 4th overall
David Ortiz late 2nd round
Miguel Tejada early 3rd round
Jimmy Rollins in the first.

I didn't agree with any of that but he based it off of position scarcity. I'll take Ortiz over Rollins any day.
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