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Projections based on ABs

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Projections based on ABs

Postby Broncmet724 » Tue Jan 10, 2006 9:04 pm

What would the average poster consider enough at bats to warrant projexting saying 450ABs for the AB shortened season? I generally try to keep it to a minimum of 150 ABs personally.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 10, 2006 11:01 pm

I'm not sure what you are asking. If you are asking how many ABs does it take to complete a reasonably reliable projection, a rough guide is that you need about 3 full years of data (about 1,500 ABs) to do a good projection. It doesn't really matter whether those are major or minor league ABs, as long as they are adjusted appropriately. You can certainly do projections with fewer, but the confidence intervals that you draw around them should be wider.
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Postby Broncmet724 » Wed Jan 11, 2006 5:46 pm

Say I am projecting Joe Rookie. He had 150 ABs in 2005 in a cup of coffee at the end of the year. I plan on projecting that out to 450 ABs for the season. What would be the minimum at bats someone would consider to make a projection for a season on?
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:47 pm

Broncmet724 wrote:Say I am projecting Joe Rookie. He had 150 ABs in 2005 in a cup of coffee at the end of the year. I plan on projecting that out to 450 ABs for the season. What would be the minimum at bats someone would consider to make a projection for a season on?


You mean like the average number of ABs per seaosn, for the average major leauge starter? That's a good question, one I don't have the answer to though. I'm sure somebody around here has some info that can help you though. ;-D
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:53 pm

I would never base a projection solely on ABs from the most recent season. 150 Abs is simply not enough for a good projection. Neither is 300 or even a single full season of at bats. To do a reasonably reliable projection you need about 1,500 ABs. The minimum that I would use is about 1,000.
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