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B. Molina may sit out 2006.

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Postby Havok1517 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:06 am

Zaun is 35. Molina is 31. If they can sign Molina for a disounted price to a multi-year deal. It would be a great signing. Oh and Molina is a lot better offensive option than Zaun (besides OBP%) also saves runs and wins more games with his defense. But I do think adding a bullpen arm is a good idea. Maybe if/when they move Hinske they wuld have enough money to do both. Let's see...who needs a young 3B...Phillies (Bell has seemed to lose favor, came on late last year though)...Twins (Batista come on, nice money signing though)...SD (everybody knows Castilla is done). Also, MWeir what would be ur view on keeping Hinske and moving Lil' Cat and letting Johnson/Hilldabrand play the OF? Moving Rios to 2nd in order might spark some growth everyone seems to think he has, me included.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:32 am

Havok, you dismiss on-base percentage as if it's a relatively minor offensive statistic. However, it's principly the amount of times a batter doesn't get out each time he comes to the plate. In fact, a team comprised of hitters with a 1.000 OBP would win every game over a team whose players hit .999 and every hit was a homerun.

Zaun's career OPS+ is higher than Molina's. Zaun's career RC/27 is also higher than Molina's.

And after looking at the statistics, Molina doesn't even look that much better with the glove. He threw out 31% of baserunners last season, compared to Zaun's 23%. When Molina caught, his pitchers ERA was 3.53% better. When Zaun caught, his pitchers ERA was 6.65% better.

Besides all this, the age differential isn't much of a factor. Molina has seen just as much action as Zaun...catcher progression/regression is probably closer correlated to wear and tear (playing time) than age.
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Postby Havok1517 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:02 am

I think OBP% is overated if 1 catcher is hitting .251 and the other close to .300 while outproducing him in every other stat. Plus, Molina's team wins/won and has caught more vet pitchers. In turn, Toronto has younger pitchers who have gotten better. So there is a larger margin for improvment and will improve even more so with the much more solid Molina if signed. Also, you're not paying attention to past fielding stats of the journeyman catcher, 1 year of marginal success isn't enough for me or JP evidently. Molina over his career is by far the better player. Also, you fail to look at Halladay & Lilly's stats over the last few years. Though some of this may be because of injury they have regressed or become stagnant in the last 2 years (the two years Z-Nobody has been there). Let them be the judge. BTW If OBP% was everything Oak would win the WS every year and they don't.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:28 am

Havok1517 wrote:I think OBP% is overated if 1 catcher is hitting .251 and the other close to .300 while outproducing him in every other stat.

Greg Zaun scored 16 more runs than Molina last season...that might be the result of being on base 40 times more than Molina this past season.
Plus, Molina's team wins/won and has caught more vet pitchers. In turn, Toronto has younger pitchers who have gotten better. So there is a larger margin for improvment and will improve even more so with the much more solid Molina if signed.

I'm not sure what you're aiming at here. If you're trying to explain the reason why the team ERA when Zaun caught was better than when he didn't catch last season, it has nothing to do with the age of the pitchers. And since Zaun has a better margin of ERA increase than Molina, he's a better fit for the young pitchers.
Also, you're not paying attention to past fielding stats of the journeyman catcher, 1 year of marginal success isn't enough for me or JP evidently. Molina over his career is by far the better player.

I just showed you that Zaun's career OPS+ and RC/27 are better than Molina's. Zaun also has an OBP% that is over 3% better than Molina's. Zaun, in nearly the same amount of at bats, has also grounded into 50 fewer double plays than Molina.
Let them be the judge. BTW If OBP% was everything Oak would win the WS every year and they don't.

I'll bet you money that on-base percentage is closer correlated to World Series wins than batting average.
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Postby Havok1517 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:59 am

Moneyball huh? How in the world would Molina not have the same effect on a young pitching staff? He's better through and through. Your comparing pitchers Colon (CY Young!!!), Washburn (WS Pitcher), Lackey (Dominate last year), Santana (the only comprable player to the Tor youngsters) to Halladay (wait he couldn't pitch and his numbers are down ever since Zaun took over @ C), Lilly and his 5.56 era!!!, Chacin huge margin to improve, & Towers huge margin, & Bush. It's hilarious that you think OBP% is more important than all the other offensive numbers that Molina has put up year after to year than the horrible Zaun. You failed to address any of the past defensive numbers Z-Nobody had compared to Molina. Even in his career year (2005) his numbers still weren't as good Molina's. Well, I think JP knows a lot more than you do and I agree with him. You think maybe that the major pitching successes of the Angels over the last few year could be because of Molina??? How since he's caught for them he's won a WS, been to the All-Star game, WON GOLD GLOVES, helped lead Colon to the CY YOUNG, help Lackey find the strikezone. How on earth could Z-horrible compete? What has Zaun done? He's been a marginal journeyman catcher for his entire career. Spending time in Bal, Fla, Hou, Tex, KC, and now Toronto. That's because he can't hit and can't field when compared to a player like Molina. He maybe more patient but he sure isn't better and when/if he gets signed Z-Crappy takes a long seat on the bench. Molina = Winner, Zaun= Never was. Funny stuff.
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Postby mweir145 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 2:00 am

Havok1517 wrote: Also, MWeir what would be ur view on keeping Hinske and moving Lil' Cat and letting Johnson/Hilldabrand play the OF? Moving Rios to 2nd in order might spark some growth everyone seems to think he has, me included.

Well considering Rios' OBP last year hovered around .300, he's simply not a very good option in the #2 hole.

Trading Catalanatto, arguably the Jays' best hitter last season, wouldn't be the greatest of ideas either.

Right now, the plan looks to be a platoon LF (Hinske/Johnson), and a platoon RF (Catalanatto/ Rios). Hillenbrand slots in as a fulltime DH this season, with Hinske/Glaus replacing him on some days.
The Jays really have no choice but to keep Hinske. He's shown himself to be a productive hitter agaisnt righties though, hopefully he will continue to be so this season.
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Postby mweir145 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 2:11 am

Havok, I've seen you write twice that Halladay's numbers were down due to Zaun catching for him. Do you understand how ludicrous that sounds? Halladay basically pitched injured for the entire 2004 season, and missed about 1/3 of it throughout different intervals. To say his numbers that season were due to Zaun, well that simply makes no sense.

You want evidence? Well how about his 2005 season, where he went for a 2.41 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over the first half? Those are career bests for him (by a large margin as well), and yes, Zaun was catching for him. It seems to me that Zaun's catching skills, and his ability to call a great game reasons caused Halladay to improve not "regress." It can work both ways right?
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Postby Havok1517 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 2:17 am

If you noticed I put maybe result of injury in () or may be not.
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Postby mweir145 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 2:27 am

Havok1517 wrote:He maybe more patient but he sure isn't better and when/if he gets signed Z-Crappy takes a long seat on the bench. Molina = Winner, Zaun= Never was. Funny stuff.

I've already thoroughly explained that this won't be the case, and you've had many people explain to you, that yes, these two catchers do compare fairly closely offensively and defensively.

I'm not really sure what else I can really do to tell you that Zaun will still get a fair number of starts even if Molina gets signed on this team. You seem to have it set in your mind that it's going to be this way. All I can say is you'll find out soon enough once Molina decides to sign here (that is, if he does).

The Jays were the first team to actually give Zaun a chance at starting, and he's worked out very well for them. I really don't expect Gibbons to just throw away everything he's done for this team these last 2 years as if it never happened.

BTW, haven't you ever heard of the 1997 Florida Marlins? Zaun was a very productive part of that team at catcher, so to say that he "never was" is incorrect as well. Despite being only a backup catcher throughout his career, he's still found a way in his career to make a difference in a World Series win.
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Postby mweir145 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 2:30 am

Havok1517 wrote:If you noticed I put maybe result of injury in () or may be not.

You said, and I quote "his numbers are down ever since Zaun took over @ C."

That just isn't true.
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