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Ramon Hernandez in '06

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:40 am
by WittyC
I realize this has been discussed in some detail in other threads, but I think Ramon might deserve his own thread to discuss his fantasy potential in 2006. Here are my burning questions...

1) How many AB's do you see him getting? Will Javy steal AB's and keep Ramon around the 380-400 mark, or will Ramon get back to the 450-460 mark he reached earlier in his career?

2) How much will the change of parks affect him? PETCO was the worst hitter's park in '05, and Camden was just a little below average. Maybe the HR's could get back around 20, or possibly higher.

3) Is his increased batting average an abberation, or could he hit .290+ in '06?

4) Where do you rank him relative to his peers? Is he the same tier as Varitek, Posada, I-Rod and Lopez, or is he a peg below?

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 10:48 am
by stumpak
Frankly, I would not worry about any of those things with Hernandez. Javy will lnot steal ABs since the O's 1B and DH situation is fairly appallling. He was also a minor league batting champ, so a high average is not an aberration. It may be .280 instead of .290 but I do not think that you have to worry about .250.

What I think you do have to worry about is an injury history. This is what may limit him to 300-400 ABs. I am saying that this will happen, but it is my biggest concern with the guy.

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:04 pm
by KoopaTroopa211
Javy will DH a lot, so I don't see Hernandez's #'s taking an incedible dip. Besides, if Javy plays C, then Hernandez might be taking the DH for the day.

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:13 pm
by Iconoclastic
I am keeping him in a keeper league, for the lack of better options. What worries me most about him is having to move to a new league and the necessary adjustments it will take to be successful, as well as learning his Oriole pitchers and worrying about his defensive responsibilities. I just don't think he'll have time for his offense until after the All-Star break. I hope I'm wrong though.

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 1:24 pm
by stumpak
He was in the AL just two years ago, so I do not think the adjustment will be that considerable.

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 1:25 pm
by with_pleasure
He moved to a new league in '04 and hit 18 hrs in 384 ABs in the most extreme NL pitchers park. He's already spent four full seasons in the AL.

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:25 pm
by mtarail
I think Hernandez has a lot of upside. If he can stay healthy it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see him deliver Varitek-esque #'s at a much cheaper price.

1) I don't see Javy taking away his AB's. Hernandez is being viewed as an offensive contributor from the catcher position in Balt, which is why it was a no-brainer for them to move Javy to 1b/DH.

2) Camden Yards is SO MUCH better as a hitters park than Petco (and Oakland). He hit 21 in Oakland and managed 18 in cavernous Petco with only 384 AB's.) And he'll have more lineup protection in Baltimore than he had in SD. 20 jacks is a nice, conservative estimate for him, but I think he could easily hit 25.

3) I think .290 was probably an aberration. I'm expecting .275-.280.

4) I've got Ramon ranked like this:

V-Mart
Mauer
Javy
Varitek
Hernandez

(Irod and Posada will both probably be drafted before Hernandez).