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Waiver wire - easier to find hitters or pitchers?

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Postby JakeTrain72 » Mon Apr 24, 2006 7:49 pm

if you are talking about spot start pitchers and similarly temp-hitters (say to fill in for the 15 day DL stint from a starter) I'd say pitching since you can look at matchups.

But if you are talking about long term value, I think hitters are easier to predict and snatch up off the WW. Most of the time its the hitters who just need an opportunity to play that can make a nice impact. You pick them up knowing they are going to sit on your bench, hoping they get a chance. Once they do, you get a nice reward.
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Postby Gags Sports » Mon Apr 24, 2006 7:52 pm

Pitchers by a mile
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Postby great gretzky » Mon Apr 24, 2006 8:16 pm

pitchers with one proviso, and it is an important one.

A hitter will generally never do worse than 0-4. exceptions exist. But aside from average, the hitter won't move you backwards. The wire pitcher can REALLY blow up, and not only do poorly, but move you backwards.

But, I think every year there are pitchers who came off the wire, or were discounted enough to make the wire.

I think its pitchers, but I don't think that means you shouldn't draft them either.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Apr 24, 2006 8:48 pm

Gags Sports wrote:Pitchers by a mile

A country mile.
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Postby Matthias » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:13 pm

bellings wrote:I find it easier to pick up hitters. There will usually be some 20HR hitters sitting around with a descent average. However, there is rarely a pitcher sitting on the WW that doesn't kill your ratios. I think that because most leagues have more ratios for the pitchers than the hitters, it is more difficult to find pitchers that won't hurt you.


I think an apropos analogy is between RBs & WRs in fantasy football. A stud starting RB is fantasy gold but saints protect you if you're playing Kevin Faulk anywhere. But a goodly amount of the value lies in opportunity: if a stud goes down, the next guy won't do quite as well, but will do adequate.

WR's, on the other hand, are a dime a dozen. And there's always some low flier who busts out for a 180 yard, 2-TD game which creates the perception out there that you can find stud WRs sitting on the top of the dustbin. The difference, though, is that there's very little consistency in this type of WR. They may be having a breakout or they may just have found a soft pass coverage; happened to get a step on one long fly pattern; or what not.

But this a baseball site. I know, I know.

The analogy is that people take the existence of sporadic fantastic performances by low-profile pitchers as evidence that you can always find great starters just sitting there. The problem, though, is that since they only start every 5-6 days, by the time you notice them and trust them, their hot streak is already over. I have one guy in my league (of only 40 total pickups through the season) who has already this season picked up Dave Bush, dropped him, and now picked him up again. The number of blue-chippers who you can just stick in every week and forget about them, knowing that even if they have one or two bad outings, they'll make it up over the course of things, is very low. There's a big glut of mediocre talent. But very few guys sitting out there who you can pick up today and start with confidence the rest of the season. You may find a Randy Moss-level talent on any given day, but going to be really tough over the course of the season.

Hitters are more of a gradual dropoff. You're not going to find first-round talent sitting on the WW, but you can find someone who will be better than average. And you can start predicting with confidence about a month in as they get in a goodly sample size in different conditions. And if you can account for park effects much more. You're playing at Petco and want to sit him, you can go ahead. That's less than 0.7% of his games right there. A pitcher it's at least 3% of his starts every time you sit him at Coors, at Fenway, against the Cardinals, whatever.

So to answer your question: what should you do? I would try to trade good hitting (not super-stud / round 1 or round 2 hitting) for excellent pitching. And then keep your eyes open for someone who looks like they're coming into their own to restock your bats.

And that's my about seven and a half cents.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:45 pm

well... I think stop-gap pitchers are easier to find, especially considering the value that can be found in a good MR with good ratios and vulture wins (unpredictable I know)
You can find a hitter who was slumping, and he CAN produce for you for the rest of the year, but especially in deeper leagues, finding a quality hitter is a TON tougher.... and like someone else says, you can always do matchups with spot starting pitchers (and do quite well...) but not the same with hitters...
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