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Pujols = A-Rod + Teixeira + Bay

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Postby acsguitar » Thu May 18, 2006 1:07 pm

Can Arod please have an insane month for the next 5 months please
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
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Postby Geek » Thu May 18, 2006 1:33 pm

acsguitar wrote:Can Arod please have an insane month for the next 5 months please


As an A-Rod owner, I'd like nothing better.

But, you can safely predict A-Rod's season HR totals by multiplying his April + May stats by 3. He's not the type to struggle early and then go nuts late.

2001: 17HR in April-May, 52 HR for the year
2002: 17 HR in April-May, 57 HR for the year
2003: 15 HR in March-May, 47 HR for the year
2004: 12 HR in April-May, 36 HR for the year
2005: 17 HR in April-May, 48 HR for the year

Bottom line is that those expecting him to hit 40+ for the year are in for a big disappointment.
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Postby bigh0rt » Thu May 18, 2006 2:56 pm

Geek wrote:
acsguitar wrote:Can Arod please have an insane month for the next 5 months please


As an A-Rod owner, I'd like nothing better.

But, you can safely predict A-Rod's season HR totals by multiplying his April + May stats by 3. He's not the type to struggle early and then go nuts late.

2001: 17HR in April-May, 52 HR for the year
2002: 17 HR in April-May, 57 HR for the year
2003: 15 HR in March-May, 47 HR for the year
2004: 12 HR in April-May, 36 HR for the year
2005: 17 HR in April-May, 48 HR for the year

Bottom line is that those expecting him to hit 40+ for the year are in for a big disappointment.


How does 17 x 3 = 52, 57, and 48? :-? :-D

He is pretty consistent, though. However, we're not through May quite yet, so it remains to be seen how he'll do the rest of the way. Trust me, I'm Numero Uno on the boat of wanting him to fail. ;-)
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Postby Geek » Thu May 18, 2006 3:08 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Geek wrote:
acsguitar wrote:Can Arod please have an insane month for the next 5 months please


As an A-Rod owner, I'd like nothing better.

But, you can safely predict A-Rod's season HR totals by multiplying his April + May stats by 3. He's not the type to struggle early and then go nuts late.

2001: 17HR in April-May, 52 HR for the year
2002: 17 HR in April-May, 57 HR for the year
2003: 15 HR in March-May, 47 HR for the year
2004: 12 HR in April-May, 36 HR for the year
2005: 17 HR in April-May, 48 HR for the year

Bottom line is that those expecting him to hit 40+ for the year are in for a big disappointment.


How does 17 x 3 = 52, 57, and 48? :-? :-D

He is pretty consistent, though. However, we're not through May quite yet, so it remains to be seen how he'll do the rest of the way. Trust me, I'm Numero Uno on the boat of wanting him to fail. ;-)


17 * 3 = 51. Which is pretty close to 52 and 48. It's a bit off for the 57 HR season.

The important point is that using that multiplier gives you a pretty accurate understanding of where his numbers are going to end up--certainly much more accurate than people expecting him to achieve last year's numbers.

If you have A-Rod in a non-keeper league, it's probably a good idea to sell high on him after he hits a couple of homeruns--while people still think of him as 48 HR A-Rod rather than 35 HR Arod.

I have him in a keeper league and am only holding on to him because I think he'll be a lot better next year. This year he won't even be a top 10 player.
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Postby PinotResa » Thu May 18, 2006 4:39 pm

josebach wrote:
PinotResa wrote:A Pujols owner in one league I'm in just bet everyone 5$ he hits 80 HR, then tried to talk it down to 75 after everyone immediately accepted.


How old it this guy, 10?

I'd take the bet at 75. Hell, I'd take the bet at 60.

Pujols just had the best month of his career by hitting 14 home runs. Last year, the most he hit in any given month was 8. He's on pace to hit 8 this month. So lets just say he averages 8 each month for the rest of the year (This equates to about two per week). He'll end up with 54 home runs.

Assuming Pujols isn't changing his swing, this torrid home run pace has to drop off. He's a line-drive hitter with power. He's not a home run hitter. (his words)


29, career football manager trying baseball for the first time. :-b

I think there's a 10-15% chance Pujols hits 70.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Thu May 18, 2006 4:59 pm

Geek wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
Geek wrote:
daullaz wrote:I'm also going to go out on a limb and say by the end of the year that the trio of A-Rod, Bay and Tex has more HRs combined than Pujols.


Of course.

But there's a decent chance that Pujols outhomers either Bay and A-Rod or Bay and Tex.


Highly unlikely, as well. I know Pujols is on pace for 80+, but Teix/Bay combined last season for 75 ding dongs, and A-Rod/Bay combined for 80. Meanwhile, Pujols has never hit more than his 2004 total of 46 HR in a single season, so if you want to make some sort of bet, consider me willing.

This from a guy who owns Pujols, but not A-Rod, Bay, or Teixeira (though I'm trying to acquire Bay and/or Teix ;-) )


A-Rod will hit 35-40 HR's, and Bay will hit 23-28 HR's. 58-68 HR's is about where a lot of people are projecting Pujols.

Teix I think will still go 40+, because he's streakier than the other two.


ur crazy if u think bay will hit 23-28 homers lol.. hes pretty much a lock for 30.. hes got 7 right now.. that seems quite a bit low.. and a-rod will be around 35-40 like u said.. the only way pujols tops both is if he hits 65-70 range.. everyone needs to stop getting down on bay, he will heat up.. for instance the grand slam he hit today.,. ;-D
pujols great hitter but the most hrs he hits this year are 60..
tex will hit 40 hr arod 38 and bay 33 those are my projections
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Postby Geek » Thu May 18, 2006 5:06 pm

Those are reasonable projections.
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Postby PinotResa » Thu May 18, 2006 5:13 pm

Geek wrote:Those are reasonable projections.


They certainly are.

You guys over here in the baseball side just love to yell at each other on how you split hairs.


:-/

:-P

:-t
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Postby Geek » Sun May 21, 2006 3:23 pm

Pujols = 22

A-Rod (9) + Bay (9) + Tex (4) = 22.

What's the record for differential between # 1 and # 2 in HR's?
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Postby Strasil42 » Sun May 21, 2006 3:31 pm

Geek wrote:Pujols = 22

A-Rod (9) + Bay (9) + Tex (4) = 22.

What's the record for differential between # 1 and # 2 in HR's?


My guess would be one of the year's that Ruth started to hit a ton of homers.

Probably the year that he doubled the previous record.
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