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Jason Giambi - Hall a Fame? What say you!

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Re: Jason Giambi - Hall a Fame? What say you!

Postby Matthias » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:58 am

Bosy Billups wrote:Interesting question, especially w/ the steroid admission.

BUT, look at his career stats. They are definately HOF.

What say you?


I say he makes his high school's HOF.
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Postby beezer » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:06 am

No Way. He may be on something again but it ain't roids! Any player would be stupid to take them with the testing going on and the spotlight shining on steroids. Three words: HUMAN GROWTH HORMONES. The only way to detect them is by a blood test and the players' union would NEVER allow blood testing by MLB. I am willing to bet those players that were taking roids, have made the switch to HGH. Even if someone (grand jury, e.g.) asks if they are taking roids, they won't be lying when they say no! I can't believe this topic hasn't been talked about more. Seems like people are clearly over looking this.
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Postby moochman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:03 pm

Giambi is not like Bonds, who proved long before he ever fell under clouds of suspicion that he is a HOFer. Giambi is just a real good hitter who is hard to categorize because of his steroid useage and that he isn't a well rounded ball player. No HOF, says I.
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Postby Double Play Ball » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:17 pm

HAHA.. HOF, yea right :-b
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Postby Smee » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:21 pm

His defense is far too atrocious for him to HOF.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:25 pm

Please if Palmeiro or Mcgwire can and likely will get into the HOF while being blatant roid users that have never fessed up, Giambi can get in for being one that sort of admitted it in a "wink wink" manner. The question is whether the numbers warrant it. I think he needs to get to 500 Hrs to get in. Coming into this season he had 313 at age 35. I think he has a fair but not good shot at making it to 500 if he can play well for 3-4 more years. Probably less than a 50% chance he can stay healthy eenough, but he has a fair shot as he should have about 360-370 going into next year.
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Postby George_Foreman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:32 pm

I mean, he's got to at least get to 500 HRs. That doesn't seem impossible right now, but lets remember that the man is like 35. If he plays into his 40s at a high level, then sure, he'll get in. But if he hits a wall at like 38? I doubt it.

I figure he'll finish with like 450-480 HRs and won't get in. Oh, and steroids will have little to nothing to do with it.
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Postby DK » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:36 pm

Wow, I'm not a Giambi lover by any means but you guys are seriously underrating him.

Career .295, .413 OBP, .539 Slugging. 1150 RC career. 36th all-time in OPS+, ahead of Mike Schmidt, Ralph Kiner, Duke Snider, and tons of other HoFers. Never a good fielder (although - weird - he played a little third at the beginning of his career and was pretty good) but from 1999-2003 was probably the best hitter in the AL, or at least even with Manny Ramirez.

He's a not a very good hitter - he's a great hitter. Do I think he's a HoFer? I don't know - not yet, anyway. Give him a few years.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:41 pm

George_Foreman wrote:I mean, he's got to at least get to 500 HRs. That doesn't seem impossible right now, but lets remember that the man is like 35. If he plays into his 40s at a high level, then sure, he'll get in. But if he hits a wall at like 38? I doubt it.

I figure he'll finish with like 450-480 HRs and won't get in. Oh, and steroids will have little to nothing to do with it.



He will be 36 going into next season with somewhere around 360 HRs. Meaning he needs to have good years at ages 36, 37 and 38 realistically. If we assume a conservative avg of 35 HRs each of those 3 years and assuming he is healthy and doesn't break down, he would be at about 465. Meaning all he would really need to do is avg 18 hrs the next 2 yrs at ages 39 and 40 to make it. Or continue to hit another 35 at age 39.

He does not need to perform into his 40s like Bonds. He basically needs to perform at a fairly high level to around age 39. Certainly not impossible. I just think it is unlikely that he can stay healthy during that period. He really can't afford another serious injury. And his body will start to break down as he gets older, so he could fall off at age 37, 38 too.
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Postby Matthias » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:56 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:I mean, he's got to at least get to 500 HRs. That doesn't seem impossible right now, but lets remember that the man is like 35. If he plays into his 40s at a high level, then sure, he'll get in. But if he hits a wall at like 38? I doubt it.

I figure he'll finish with like 450-480 HRs and won't get in. Oh, and steroids will have little to nothing to do with it.



He will be 36 going into next season with somewhere around 360 HRs. Meaning he needs to have good years at ages 36, 37 and 38 realistically. If we assume a conservative avg of 35 HRs each of those 3 years and assuming he is healthy and doesn't break down, he would be at about 465. Meaning all he would really need to do is avg 18 hrs the next 2 yrs at ages 39 and 40 to make it. Or continue to hit another 35 at age 39.

He does not need to perform into his 40s like Bonds. He basically needs to perform at a fairly high level to around age 39. Certainly not impossible. I just think it is unlikely that he can stay healthy during that period. He really can't afford another serious injury. And his body will start to break down as he gets older, so he could fall off at age 37, 38 too.


I don't think Giambi hitting 105 HRs over the next three years is a conservative estimate. Hitters peak around 30 and then start falling off. As Giambi falls off, he'll also see fewer plate appearances giving fewer opportunities meaning fewer HRs.

You want a "conservative estimate" of Giambi's 2007-2009 HR totals? I'll say 55-60.
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