Return to Baseball Leftovers

Interleague = More K's?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Interleague = More K's?

Postby RynMan » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:50 am

Just an observation, but if I had time to go back and analyse the numbers, I think that I'd find that during interleague play, on average there are more strikeouts by average to above average guys. Here are a few from today's games that jump out:

Cain 10
Myers 11 (and yes, you can thank me for that, since I benched him)
Bonderman 12
Davis 9

Yesterday:

Glavine 6 (in 6)
Harang 9
Smoltz 8

Other guys were roughly a K per inning, but in general my impression has been that more pitchers have been getting K's in interleague play - which would make sense (since hitters aren't used to seeing them).

Any thoughts?
Image
RynMan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerAward-Winning Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 8664
(Past Year: -227)
Joined: 4 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Oztailia

Postby Tavish » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:57 am

It makes some sense that the K's would rise in the interleague games being played in NL parks. AL pitchers are getting a couple of shots against opposing pitchers, NL pitchers are getting shots at pitchers who don't normally get all that much plate time during practice. Plus common wisdom is that pitchers have the upper hand the first time seeing batters which, even in the free agency era, happens somewhat often in interleague play.
Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 10554
(Past Year: -510)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:59 am

I'd love to see somebody dig up figures on this, but sense would tell me that a spike in K's could be expected for the exact reason you said -- unfamiliarity. Those figures don't seem incredibly out of question for the pitchers you listed, though. Unit fanned 7 today, and Escobar had a very nice outing (with only 4 K's, however).

All I know about Interleague is Mike Piazza is teh Stud (yes, I spelt it teh on purpose) against the weak AL :-)
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24931
(Past Year: 376)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Postby Half Massed » Tue Jun 20, 2006 3:42 am

I'll buy that. It'd probably add up to a few more K's, or just more times that the batter is fooled, which will lead to more K's for many pitchers. I think that pitchers that have been in both leagues for a significant amount of time would be unaffected though.
Image
Half Massed
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 3978
(Past Year: -106)
Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Busting ghosts

Postby no1cowboysfan » Tue Jun 20, 2006 4:44 am

I'd keep Harang off that list ... he's been racking up Ks all season. He's quietly becoming a pretty solid mainstay on plenty of fantasy rosters this season.
Image

The lightside shall prevail...

Oh, and go Dodgers!
no1cowboysfan
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 36
(Past Year: -16)
Joined: 28 Sep 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby mrider » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:49 am

no1cowboysfan wrote:I'd keep Harang off that list ... he's been racking up Ks all season. He's quietly becoming a pretty solid mainstay on plenty of fantasy rosters this season.


I wouldn't say quietly he has been a beast in k's all year and his other cats have been solid.
Image
mrider
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2544
(Past Year: -18)
Joined: 1 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rogers Centre

Postby RynMan » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:03 am

no1cowboysfan wrote:I'd keep Harang off that list ... he's been racking up Ks all season. He's quietly becoming a pretty solid mainstay on plenty of fantasy rosters this season.


While we are on Harang, I just traded for the guy and am only going to use him on the road.

Check out his splits:

Home ERA: 6.00
Away ERA: 1.86

In almost identical number of innings.

8-o
Image
RynMan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerAward-Winning Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 8664
(Past Year: -227)
Joined: 4 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Oztailia

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:23 am

RynMan wrote:
no1cowboysfan wrote:I'd keep Harang off that list ... he's been racking up Ks all season. He's quietly becoming a pretty solid mainstay on plenty of fantasy rosters this season.


While we are on Harang, I just traded for the guy and am only going to use him on the road.

Check out his splits:

Home ERA: 6.00
Away ERA: 1.86

In almost identical number of innings.

8-o


Great American is a TERRIBLE park in which to pitch if you are a fly ball pitcher because it yields so many home runs. In fact according to Rotowire, "Cincinnati - Played as the best NL park in yielding homers in 2005". That's right...better than Colorado...better than Arizona. Great American - and not Coors Field - was the Coors Field of the NL in 2005. Now it is slightly run neutral (in fact it suppressed run scoring in 2003-2004 and only reversed that trend to go to slightly good for scoring runs in 2005) but the home runs come more easily there than in any other NL park.

So what about Harang? His last 3 years ground ball percentages are 42.2%, 39.1% and 38.6% so far this year. So basically Aaron Harang is a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher pitching in an extreme home run ball park. That's not a good combination.

His home/road splits tell the entire story when you examine the component numbers. At home he's posted a 10.13 k/9 and a 2.44 bb/9 - outstanding numbers! On the road he's posted an 8.38 k/9 and a 2.23 bb/9 - not quite as good but still outstanding. However...and this is where it becomes crystal clear what's going on here...he's posted a hr/9 of 1.69 at home versus 0.19 on the road!!! That's the entire difference for Aaron Harang. He doesn't let Great American Ballpark affect his pitching...in fact he's stepped it up to a new level at home this year. But the ballpark will not be denied and 9 of those long fly balls that fly ball pitchers are wont to give up have found the bleachers (or the river !+) ) when he's pitched at home. Only 1 has made it out on the road.

Harang would be an outstanding start in one of two situations:
1) He's starting in a home run neutral to home run suppressing park. I wouldn't just avoid home starts but also avoid Coors and Arizona for example.
2) He's facing a team that has very poor home run hitters in general (even at home). Obviously even Great American Ballpark isn't going to turn Kenny Lofton into a home run hitter. The Hardball Times has hr/f ratios on their player stats page...if the team Harang is facing sports most of their players in single digits for that statistic you can probably even start Harang at home. If you see a bunch of guys in the 14-15%+ range you may want to rethink even starting him on the road.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7525
(Past Year: 235)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests