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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:05 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:How did I concede your point? We are talking about whether a lack of batting average is more detrimental than a lack in any other category, not whether I would draft or play them.

I would never draft or play a guy who bats below .200 because players who bat that low usually do not put up numbers elsewhere. A low batting average directly effects a player's total performance, while not stealing bases does not.

The point is that the lack of steals or a lack of average is directly proportional to the league. A low league BA makes a low BA player more valuable. A high steals league makes lack of steals more detrimental.


If you're playing a standard, 12 team 5X5 roto mixed league, there isn't any such thing as a high steals or low average league. 99% of the players in those kinds of league are the same from league to league.
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Postby Fade2White12 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:13 pm

Of course they have most of the same players, I'm talking about average on teams.

If one team has all the high average hitters, the rest of the league's BA average is much lower. If all the best hitters are spread out, BA is higher for all teams and distance between BA differences in the 1st place vs. the last place team is much closer, making Dunn's average more damaging. The same with SBs...
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Postby cordscords » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:30 pm

The only problem with combining the likes of an Ichiro/Dunn to give you the good average, is the risk of injury and a player busting.

Lets just say you draft Hideki Matsui and Adam Dunn. Matsui goes down and your screwed.

You draft Aramis Ramirez and Dunn, A-Ram busts and your screwed.

"But cordscords, Matsui and A-Ram were projected to just hit right around .300, not a billion points over like Ichiro like is hitting."

I myself did project Ichiro to hit around .335 this year, but last year he "just" hit .303, by far the worst AVG he has hit for in his career. Baseball is a crazy game, maybe Ichiro for the rest of his career would be a guy who just barely hits .300

Since BA is the category that fluctuates the most, lets just say for fun Ichiro matches his stats from last year, and Dunn keeps his current pace up.

'05 Ichiro- 206/679
'06 Dunn (projected)- 125/558

Combined BA- 331/1237= .267

That is why I generally try to avoid average killers. While I do myself own several average killers in many leagues (thanks a ton Pierre, A-Ram, Giles!!!!) it obviously wasnt intentional. That's just more proof that BA does fluctuate and can plummet. So by the same token Dunn could very well be hitting .275 right now. Even knowing that BA can really mess with a fantasy owners head, if you stack up on enough good BA guys who have a long history of posting a good AVG, you can eliminate some of that risk. But by doing that along with drafting Dunn, you may be offsetting other categories while attempting to offset the risk. That's why you should always just draft for balance, and avoid Dunn in the first place ;-)
Last edited by cordscords on Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Fade2White12 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:56 pm

And by the same token, SB players can get hurt as well or fail to get steals. Same with any other stat, or they can hit over their heads.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:27 pm

cordscords wrote:The only problem with combining the likes of an Ichiro/Dunn to give you the good average, is the risk of injury and a player busting.

Lets just say you draft Hideki Matsui and Adam Dunn. Matsui goes down and your screwed.

You draft Aramis Ramirez and Ichiro, A-Ram busts and your screwed.

"But cordscords, Matsui and A-Ram were projected to just hit right around .300, not a billion points over like Ichiro like is hitting."

I myself did project Ichiro to hit around .335 this year, but last year he "just" hit .303, by far the worst AVG he has hit for in his career. Baseball is a crazy game, maybe Ichiro for the rest of his career would be a guy who just barely hits .300

Since BA is the category that fluctuates the most, lets just say for fun Ichiro matches his stats from last year, and Dunn keeps his current pace up.

'05 Ichiro- 206/679
'06 Dunn (projected)- 125/558

Combined BA- 331/1237= .267

That is why I generally try to avoid average killers. While I do myself own several average killers in many leagues (thanks a ton Pierre, A-Ram, Giles!!!!) it obviously wasnt intentional. That's just more proof that BA does fluctuate and can plummet. So by the same token Dunn could very well be hitting .275 right now. Even knowing that BA can really mess with a fantasy owners head, if you stack up on enough good BA guys who have a long history of posting a good AVG, you can eliminate some of that risk. But by doing that along with drafting Dunn, you may be offsetting other categories while attempting to offset the risk. That's why you should always just draft for balance, and avoid Dunn in the first place ;-)


Good post...it definitely explains the risks associated with Dunn very well. One thing to remember about Dunn too is that his average is going to have a fairly small variance. Over 40% of Dunn's official at bats have their results determined at home plate. He either hits it out or misses it entirely. For the purposes of our discussion the walks don't matter here...they help his value but not his average other than that they lower the total number of at bats making his home runs more meaningful to the average. That means the 'luck' part of baseball only comes into play for Dunn 60% of the time. Ichiro on the other hand has about 11.3% of his ab's determined at home plate and over 88% determined in the field of play. That gives quite a bit more margin for luck to affect his average.

You've hit on the result of those facts as well. You can project Ichiro for .330...he could hit .303 or .372 and have it not be a surprise. You project Dunn for .246 and he's most likely going to end up within 20 points...probably closer than that. So I guess what I'm saying is that Dunn's average is pretty predictable so you know what you need to make up for it...but the high average guys don't have predictable average so you may want to assume they end up toward the bottom 3rd of their possible range of outcomes.
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Postby DevilDriver » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:38 pm

Geek wrote:
DevilDriver wrote:vlad is a top 5 keeper

not sure why everyone has him so low :-?


Well, he's past thirty, which means he's due for a decline in his #'s within a couple of years.

More to the point, it's hard to argue with Soriano, Beltran, and Santana being top five guys.

Soriano (if traded to a good team), Beltran, and Santana are all top 10 at best, not top 5.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:48 pm

DevilDriver wrote:
Geek wrote:
DevilDriver wrote:vlad is a top 5 keeper

not sure why everyone has him so low :-?


Well, he's past thirty, which means he's due for a decline in his #'s within a couple of years.

More to the point, it's hard to argue with Soriano, Beltran, and Santana being top five guys.

Soriano (if traded to a good team), Beltran, and Santana are all top 10 at best, not top 5.


If soriano gets traded to a good team he'd be a top 3 pick. Santana, i just dont like taking pitchers in the first 5 picks. Beltran could be on the fringe, and if he keeps up this season hes in there at 4 or 5.
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Postby Nails86 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:54 pm

If people are going to mention the likes of Papelbon and Gagne, I think it is fair to throw BJ Ryan's name into the mix. Ryan is first of all mroe proven than Papelbon becauyse of last year and he is going to be a closer for sure where as Papelbon may start.
36 Saves with 100 K's last year, and now this year arguably the best closer in the league (yes better than Papelbon) 45K's in 38 innings .474 ERA .658 WHIP 21 saves, the #'s speak for themselves.
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Postby jdsun1 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:08 pm

jhofingers wrote:1 Albert Pujols
2 Johan Santana
3 David Wright
4 Alex Rodriguez
5 Miguel Cabrera
6 Alfonso Soriano
7 Carlos Beltran
8 Carl Crawford
9 Mark Teixeira
10 Jason Bay
11 Matt Holliday
12 Mark Teixeira
13 Ryan Howard
14 Travis Hafner
15 Grady Sizemore


Tex listed twice? Hes not even worth listing once.
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Postby TB13 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:28 pm

Beltran is making a strong case for top-5. If he swipes at least 25, it will be hard to keep him from there.
I would also argue that Holliday should be ranked higher than Bay. Holliday is batting close to 70 points higher and has a .06 higher in OPS (a telling statistic, IMO). Bay only has 5 more homers and 3 more RBI's, while Holliday has scored 7 more runs. What most people tend to forget is that Holliday is actually 2 years younger than Bay.
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