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Impressed or Disappointed with Fielder's first season?

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Postby tuff_gong » Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:02 pm

Not everyone can be Ryan Howard, I am impressed that Prince is putting up a quality first season.
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Well that's just like, your opinion man.
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Postby Splendid61 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:35 pm

I don't believe he'll put together a very good season this year. The homers aren't going to be a problem, it's his average that's gonna get him.

Fielder started out the season batting .344 in April, that average has fallen to .287. He's crushed 7 homers in June, yet he only has 10 runs and 9 ribbies to show for it, mostly thanks to a .216 average for the month.

I remember a thread here a few months ago about what batting averages should be when luck is removed (Baseball Prospectus i think), and Fielder's was a lot lower than his actual average at the time April/May. So it wasn't necessarily that he was hitting great, since he was getting very lucky.

I'd be surprised if Fielder finishes the season batting over .275, I think he'll be like his father, lots of power and not much average.

He's currently at 39 runs, 16 HR, 42 RBI, and .287 average. I see him finishing with 74 runs, 33 HR, 80 RBI, and .265 average.

For a 1B, those aren't exactly good fantasy numbers. They could even get worse if Carlos Lee is traded and if Geoff Jenkins doesn't heat up in the 2nd half.


.
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Postby Danimal » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:07 pm

The season is young. I believe he could still pile up the rbi and dingers. He's a solid keeper in many if not all formats.
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Postby jdsun1 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:38 pm

I should have taken him in the first round instead of Mark Bustxera
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Postby Zito is God » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:52 pm

He's a solid keeper in many if not all formats.


You're kidding right? Hes a no questions asked keeper in every single format. Hes drafted top 6 in rookie drafts before the year.
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Postby cordscords » Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:02 pm

Zito is God wrote:
He's a solid keeper in many if not all formats.


You're kidding right? Hes a no questions asked keeper in every single format. Hes drafted top 6 in rookie drafts before the year.


Uh....isnt that kind of what he said?

Anyways I see Prince finishing with a .275-.280 average with 25-30 HR.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:41 am

I think he can actually kick the power up a notch and finish with 35 HR and 100 RBI. ;-D
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Postby Scooter1027 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:31 am

Splendid61 wrote:I don't believe he'll put together a very good season this year. The homers aren't going to be a problem, it's his average that's gonna get him.

Fielder started out the season batting .344 in April, that average has fallen to .287. He's crushed 7 homers in June, yet he only has 10 runs and 9 ribbies to show for it, mostly thanks to a .216 average for the month.

I remember a thread here a few months ago about what batting averages should be when luck is removed (Baseball Prospectus i think), and Fielder's was a lot lower than his actual average at the time April/May. So it wasn't necessarily that he was hitting great, since he was getting very lucky.

I'd be surprised if Fielder finishes the season batting over .275, I think he'll be like his father, lots of power and not much average.

He's currently at 39 runs, 16 HR, 42 RBI, and .287 average. I see him finishing with 74 runs, 33 HR, 80 RBI, and .265 average.

For a 1B, those aren't exactly good fantasy numbers. They could even get worse if Carlos Lee is traded and if Geoff Jenkins doesn't heat up in the 2nd half.


.


As someone who has watched/listened to/attended nearly every Brewer game this season, I strongly disagree with nearly all of this. Prince's hits are not lucky, he sprays them all over the field with authority. He is not a dead pull hitter like his pops, and as such should always be a respectable hitter for average. His minor league numbers verify this as well -- good averages at nearly every stop. In addition, he is a player that has traditionally adjusted to his level of competition extremely well at each level of his career and has gotten better, not worse as the season has gone on.

The only thing I'll give you is the possibility of Lee being traded affecting Prince. However, Melvin has said that if we are in the wild card hunt, he won't be dealing Carlos at the deadline. The team is presently 3.5 games out despite missing their starting SS, ace, and #4 starter. Both pitchers have begun rehab assignments and should be back shortly after the all-star break. I don't think Melvin will be able to consider the team "out of it"
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Postby johnsamo » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:10 am

Man, you expect a lot from a 22 year old slugger.... The key to me is, hes's got a 346 obp. Most young sluggers are all or nothing, but clearly, he can take a walk. That likely spells long term success. He's even got 5 fricking steals!

Every team in the league would love to have a 22 yar old putting up his #s.... It's just going to bet better. Nobody peaks at 22.
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Postby tomdoyle3 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:18 am

The reason for the low rbi's is that he is hitting just .235 with RISP compared to .295 with the bases empty. That should come up. ;-D

His average may be a little high, becuase his BABIP is .324, I expect it to come down to about .310 or so. A lot of that BABIP is luck, becuase he doesn't have much speed, and he isn't hitting a lot of line drives. (ld% of 17.9%, below average)
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