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Stretegery question

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Stretegery question

Postby great gretzky » Thu Aug 28, 2003 10:18 pm

Ok I really need to scrapte together as many roto points as possible. In second place, behind by 5.5, I suspect that the leader can get two more -- unlikely but possible. How likely am I to make up one point is saves?

I currently have beck, kim and guradardo. And I just submitted a waiver claim for riske, and stand a good chance of getting him. My save total is 68, the next guy has 83. I figure fifteen is semi modest, my guys las tmonth got seventeen. My opponent has mike williams, mesa, carter, speier. Do I have a chance? Should I also make a play for reitsma since he has SP eligibility I could throw a bunch of guys at the problem. But then again and astute manager dumped him so I am suspicious. Any advice?
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Postby Madison » Thu Aug 28, 2003 10:48 pm

It all depends on who you would be letting go to get them. If it's a worthless middle reliever, then go for it. If it's a decent hitter, it gets a little dicey. In a standard 5x5 roto, middle relievers don't impact your era/whip by enough to bother with them if they don't get saves. Even more so if you have an inning limit.
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Postby jdh » Thu Aug 28, 2003 11:22 pm

Well, here is how many saves I would guess those guys would pick up over the last 4.5 weeks of the season.

Beck: 2 (at most, Hoffman is back on Tuesday and they will split the job)
Kim: 6
Guardado: 7
Riske: 4
Total: 19

Williams/Mesa combined: 6
Carter: 3
Speier: 4

Total: 13

Therefore, you have really no chance of catching up to him in saves. Even if you get Rietsma, he will have 4 saves at most so you have no chance of making up that difference. You should focus on other categories.

How far back is the guy that's behind you in saves? If you are slotted in and he has next to no chance to catch you, you should try to trade or somehow get a few of your closers on the roster of another team that is close enough to a guy you're competing with in the saves category so that other team can hopefully knock a point off your main competitors.

I am in first in my main league, a few points ahead of one other team, but am slotted into first in the saves category, with a lead of about 20. The 8th place team is only 3 saves behind the 2nd place team that's chasing me, so if he can make up that difference, it knocks the 2nd place team down a point. So, I traded Worrell to him for Webb, hoping that he can catch up and give me more breathing room. You should try to pull off a similar trade, even if you can't get full value for your closer, if you can help impede your competition, it's worth it.
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Postby Madison » Thu Aug 28, 2003 11:27 pm

jdh wrote:So, I traded Worrell to him for Webb,


Nice job. ;-D Awful close to robbery. :-D
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:05 am

well, I should add that I picked up hoffman as insurance. I disagree that middle relivers are "worthless" as my closers up until now were kim, baez and beck. Kim and baez could be played as SP, so that freed up rioster space to play, donnelly, mota and cormier. Thombined effect was pretty cool, as Iw as getting the same effect on era that schilling did for me (actually a bit better as the IP was actually mroe than schilling) while still gettign saves and the occasional win that closers wont get for you. that being said, Ia gree with madison that at this point they are worthless.

I can definitely cur donnelly and cormier to get riske and reitsma. The onyl other realistic cut candidates are lecroy, loduca, brad penny/sabathia/dontrelle. And I ahve oswalt coming back as well.

If I were to get both riske and reitsma, and given that I have beck, hoffman, kim, guradardo and would be adding the former, do I have a shot?

Well, If I had knwon smoltz was going down, I coulda avoided thsi whole scenario. The next plateau of saves is the margin I need to make up. then there are three teams in that vicinity. the guy behind me stupidly traded FOR smoltz last friday (gave up kent), sayOk I really need to scrapte together as many roto points as possible. In second place, behind by 5.5, I suspect that the leader can get two more -- unlikely but possible. How likely am I to make up one point is saves?

I currently have beck, kim and guradardo. And I just submitted a waiver claim for riske, and stand a good chance of getting him. My save total is 68, the next guy has 83. I figure fifteen is semi modest, my guys las tmonth got seventeen. My opponent has mike williams, mesa, carter, speier. Do I have a chance? Should I also make a play for reitsma since he has SP eligibility I could throw a bunch of guys at the problem. But then again and astute manager dumped him so I am suspicious. Any advice?lan on making a big move in saves) well that was dumb, but put a monkey wrench in my plans. I figured I could stand pat as he only had gordon and percival -- I had hoffman, beck and kim. But then he got smoltz and I looked like I was losing a key point, so traded to get guardardo to defend. so now that I have him, I may as well investigate getting another point.

Also (sorry for the long post). One of my main competitors followed my lead of exploiting the SP/RP eligibility of certain relievers (we have an inning limit) reitsma has this quirk, riske does not. his current closers are gagne, borowksi, mantei, lopez. So, I am inclined to think he wouldn't go after riske -- he picked up baez even though I jsut dropped him for this reason. I can definitely beat everyone on ONe claim. shoudl I try and finesse and go for reitsma first even though he is the worse of the pair, as he has this quirk. and then try and finesse in riske? or jsut take riske first and try to catch up with that?
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:08 am

I should ad that the trade deadline passed, and had been hoping to pull a "kncokdown, rather than gain type of trade" but the guy who leads and fears me did it to me with saves, I did it to him in steals. But, at the same time didn;t want to concede two whole points, figured I shoudl gamble and try and fend him off, even it might be futile...
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Postby jdh » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:14 am

I would take Riske before Rietsma. Both seem likely to keep the closer's job for the rest of the year, but Cleveland seems to actually have an offense that exists, while the Reds have no good hitters whatsoever, since they have traded half their team away and the other half is on the DL, meaning few save chances for Rietsma.

Frankly, I don't think that you have any real chance of making up a 15 saves difference with only 4 weeks left to go. As soon as the Phillies start winning again, the combo of Mesa and Williams will get at least 6 saves, probably more, Carter seems to be the sole closer again, so he will get around 4 saves, Speier should get 3 or 4. That means that instead of having to get 16 saves from your closers to make up the gap, you have to get 30+ saves. That is highly unlikely to happen, so you are wasting your time and waiver priority. Instead, you should look at trading some of your current closers away to get upgrades for other categories where you still have a chance of picking up points. You can't realistically pick up any points in saves.
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Postby jdh » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:22 am

Just saw the part with the deadline passing. In that case, the only point of picking up Rietsma and Riske would be to prevent someone else from getting them. Instead, you should be looking at picking up free agents that can help you get whatever other category you actually have a chance at moving up in, plus you should make sure you can maintain your position in the other categories.

On a side point, people go overboard on the value of middle relievers, and I can guarantee you that in a league that doesn't count holds, they are close to useless. Over the rest of the year, a middle reliever will throw at most 10 more innings. That is not enough to make any kind of a dent in your ERA/WHIP, and since they aren't providing any saves or wins in general, it's a waste of a roster spot. Not only that, but if your middle reliever goes out and gets shellacked, not only do you waste a roster spot but you also potentially hurt yourself more than you help.
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Postby jdh » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:24 am

great gretzky wrote:I should ad that the trade deadline passed, and had been hoping to pull a "kncokdown, rather than gain type of trade" but the guy who leads and fears me did it to me with saves, I did it to him in steals. But, at the same time didn;t want to concede two whole points, figured I shoudl gamble and try and fend him off, even it might be futile...


Yeah, catching up in saves is futile, because as I mentioned you need 30+ saves the last 3 weeks to make it happen. If you have 17 saves last month, it's unlikely that adding two crappy closers will double your output. More likely, you could end up torching your ERA and WHIP and costing you points.
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:29 am

thanks, that is very helpful. I am kinda stuck. about 10 wins woudl move me up three points. but it is a three way tie (right now for second -- currently even, the other two guys jsut went one up on me). so I think two points there is realisitc. the leader uin wins will run out of innings soon and has mulder ont he dl, so that is good. the rest of her team is tomo ohka, jerome williams, woody williams,, escobar. So I think cathing up to her with some luck may be possible? I am also a hnudred k's from makiing up 2.5 points. should I chase k's instead or go after era (hard to do -- .07 behind of gaining a point.)

my rotation is
schilling, nomo, willis, hampton, penny, sabathia, oswalt.

I can also play all att eh same time:
beck, kim, cormier, donnelly, guradardo.

Is using my reliver spots to jsut hold off the guy behind me (three save lead for me, he jsut lost smoltz, only has gordon and percival)
and using roster spots to try and accumulate wins and k's better. the one thing I could do is hold onto two of my closers and try to cut one hoping that an opponent picks him up and thus knocks down and opponent( crazy, I know, but trade deadline ahs passed)

This is my first year, appreciate all the advice. would rather come in fourth or third than second -- provided I tried everything Ic oudl to win. Is there a viable strategy I should try? Innings are not a concern am even right now.
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