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Lastings Milledge

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Postby J35J » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:56 pm

IllinoisBandit wrote:I think he's about 80% hype; future solid 3rd-4th outfielder in most fantasy leagues.

.800 OPS
20 SB, if not then he'll be waiver wire material

a year.



I agree with this. I think he will be fairly valueable for a "real life" team but for fantasy I think you can do better ;-D

I think this is where alot of overhyped players for fantasy come into play because the ones that are overhyped is because they aren't hyped for fantasy purposes, they're hyped for what they can do in real life and alot of fantasy players think that translates into fantasy when thats not the case in some instances (like this one). Scrappy player, good speed, good defense, has solid all around "baseball" skills........ in this case equals mediocore fantasy player but a guy you would love to have on your real life team.

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Postby sockeye » Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:54 pm

I just did a little research on Milledge and saw that his upside was compared to Marquie Grissom's peak. Nice a player as Grissom was, that doesn't excite me too much.

Anyone else feel his ceiling is very likely to be higher?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:56 am

sockeye wrote:I just did a little research on Milledge and saw that his upside was compared to Marquie Grissom's peak. Nice a player as Grissom was, that doesn't excite me too much.

Anyone else feel his ceiling is very likely to be higher?


I don't. He has crappy plate discipline, poor base running skills and spotty defense. While some of that can develop you'd hope for more at this point. He's still toolsy but I think Grissom is a good comp as far as upside goes.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:19 am

Milledge's base running and defense certainly need refinement but bad plate discipline is an old knock against Milledge. I don't think "crappy plate discipline" is a fair assessment. Perhaps based solely on the 166 AB with the Mets but he posted a .380+ OBP at AA and AAA over the last two seasons. The things that worry me most about Milledge are intangible: maturity and work ethic.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:42 am

Amazinz wrote:Milledge's base running and defense certainly need refinement but bad plate discipline is an old knock against Milledge. I don't think "crappy plate discipline" is a fair assessment. Perhaps based solely on the 166 AB with the Mets but he posted a .380+ OBP at AA and AAA over the last two seasons. The things that worry me most about Milledge are intangible: maturity and work ethic.


He had a good stretch the year and a half of AA/AAA in 2005-2006 when it comes to plate discipline but he definitely struggled with that both early in his professional career as well as in the 166 AB's with the Mets this year. If he'd been good all the way through the minors and struggled with it in the majors I'd be more willing to write it off as adjustment to the majors. Given the intangibles you brought up though I'm worried that it may be a regression to old habits...something that may be harder to overcome than simple big-league jitters.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:55 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:He had a good stretch the year and a half of AA/AAA in 2005-2006 when it comes to plate discipline but he definitely struggled with that both early in his professional career as well as in the 166 AB's with the Mets this year.

But the period where he struggled early in his career is actually less total time than the good stretch.

<pre>
'03 R .323 AB 26
'04 A .399 AB 261
'04 A+ .319 AB 81
'05 A .392 AB 193
'05 A+ .385 AB 232
'05 AA .392 AB 192
'06 AAA .388 AB 307
'06 ML .310 AB 166
</pre>
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Postby George_Foreman » Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:06 pm

Ramirez is looking like he'll be a good ML OF. He's got the defense and enough of a bat to do well as a starter or, at worst, a 4th OF.

That said, I wouldn't be too excited about him in fantasy. He could put up some 20/20 seasons, which would be very nice, and in that lineup, he should have decent periferals, but it's by no means a lock.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:15 pm

Amazinz wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:He had a good stretch the year and a half of AA/AAA in 2005-2006 when it comes to plate discipline but he definitely struggled with that both early in his professional career as well as in the 166 AB's with the Mets this year.

But the period where he struggled early in his career is actually less total time than the good stretch.

<pre>
'03 R .323 AB 26
'04 A .399 AB 261
'04 A+ .319 AB 81
'05 A .392 AB 193
'05 A+ .385 AB 232
'05 AA .392 AB 192
'06 AAA .388 AB 307
'06 ML .310 AB 166
</pre>


OBP doesn't tell the entire story. I'm more interested in his 280k/119bb/1293ab ratio in the minors and his 39k/12bb/166ab in the majors. The only bright spot in those numbers is 2006 67k/43bb/307ab - still not great but a heck of a lot better than what he'd normally been posting (numbers similar to his ML numbers last year). His high minor league obp comes almost entirely thanks to a career minor league BABIP of .372. Not even Ichiro could sustain that in the majors and Milledge strikes me as a .310-.320 guy in that regard tops so he'll have to greatly improve his plate discipline to sustain an acceptable obp in the majors.

Against weaker competition in the minors his 34hr/280k/119bb/1293ab line would give a batting average of .269 and an obp of .330 if he put up a .320 BABIP to go along with it. His best minor league season (last year) with its 7hr/67k/43bb/307ab would give a batting average of .266 and an obp of .356 with the same BABIP. Keep in mind these aren't Major League Equivalencies - these are just what his numbers would be with a very good major league BABIP. The MLE's would be a good bit lower than these.

Is Milledge an exciting player? Definitely! Is he young for the level? Absolutely. But has he done anything to this point that is interesting from a fantasy perspective if you ignore the age at which he did it? Not in my opinion. With hard work and dedication Milledge has the chance to be something special due to his age and tools. But up to this point he's given very little indication that his potential will ever be anything more than just that - potential. And wasted potential at that.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:26 pm

You cannot use minor league BABIP numbers the same way you would major league numbers. There are large talent gaps at the minor league level and we should expect to see BABIP that are abnormal from a major league perspective.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
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Postby Yoda » Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:30 pm

While I do think that Milledge is a bit overrated, he is still very young. Everywhere he has been, he was a bit younger than the competition so his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. See: Jose Reyes.
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