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Statistical argument to why Bonds deserves MVP

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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:12 pm

[quote=

As far as missing time, Pujols has missed 5 games, plus there were 9 others where he was limited to pinch hitting, which is basically 14 missed games to Bonds' 29, so only 15 more missed games. Considering that Bonds missed close to 2 weeks because his father died, that shouldn't be a major factor. It would be like saying that since Schmidt missed 2 starts when his mother died he should be excluded from Cy Young consideration.[/quote]

Pujols has 657 pa to Bonds 526, about 25% more pa.
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Postby jdh » Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:19 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Pujols has 657 pa to Bonds 526, about 25% more pa.


Another thing to factor into that though is that the Cardinals lineup is much more potent than the Giants lineup, and gets more hits per game, which means that they will go through the lineup more times per game than the Giants do, resulting in more plate appearances for Pujols over Bonds for that reason.

The Cards are 3rd in the majors with 1517 hits; the Giants are 24th with 1355 hits. That means, that just based on the potency of the lineup and number of times each hitter comes to the plate in the run of a game that Pujols should get 12% more PA than Bonds when they're playing. Also, Bonds has hit cleanup almost all year and Pujols has hit in the 3 hole, which also accounts for some of the extra plate appearances.
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Re: Statistical argument to why Bonds deserves MVP

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:28 pm

[quote=

Even with Bonds' time missed, he is still almost equal to Pujols in runs created then. With that small of a difference, intangibles like what player leads his team to the playoffs and his team can't win without him in the lineup will and should determine the winner.[/quote]

True its a small difference. Man i hate intangibles. The non intangible is that SF staff era is a run lower then St Louis. Since we already know Pujols has created more runs, however slight the margin, why then are we saying hes done less to get his team into the playoffs?
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Postby wrveres » Sun Sep 21, 2003 4:05 am

Madison wrote:With Bonds hitting a couple out this week, and Pujols bat being quiet, I still haven't decided who the NL MVP should be just yet. We've got another week to go, and it could make all the difference in the world.


LOL, someone is teetering. :-)

hey does anybody know if a player has ever been "Suspended" for fighting, and still won the MVP? :-)
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Postby Madison » Sun Sep 21, 2003 4:06 am

jdh wrote:Why would the voters take into consideration how close he stands to the plate or what kind of body armor he wears? Clearly, that is not against the rules and if MLB has a problem with it, they should change the rules. Since they have no rule against it, it's irrelevant to the MVP discussion.


Do you honestly believe that the baseball big wigs want to enforce the rules against Bonds? They are doing everything they can to get people to like baseball again and come to the games. Look at the dinky, poor excuse of a suspension that Sosa got for cheating (sorry DHC, but it's the truth). Bonds clearly stands past the line of the box toward the plate. That is against the rules and Mlb chooses not to enforce it because it's Bonds doing it. That's no different than corking a bat in my opinion. Just because Mlb lets him get away with it, it doesn't meant that he's following the rules.

I've been trying to end the Bonds vs. Pujols debate myself. It's the same thing every time...."Bonds has a lot of walks"..... "Bonds got the Giants to the playoffs".

For those who have used OPS, I salute you for bringing up something that can actually be used to help Bond's case for MVP. ;-D

Hootie, you have brought out some very good points for both sides as well. ;-D
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Postby Madison » Sun Sep 21, 2003 4:10 am

wrveres wrote:
Madison wrote:With Bonds hitting a couple out this week, and Pujols bat being quiet, I still haven't decided who the NL MVP should be just yet. We've got another week to go, and it could make all the difference in the world.


LOL, someone is teetering. :-)

hey does anybody know if a player has ever been "Suspended" for fighting, and still won the MVP? :-)


I've said all the way through each discussion that it is a close race and there are still games to be played. I've also given the edge to Pujols in each of them as well. Time will tell.
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Postby wrveres » Sun Sep 21, 2003 4:10 am

Madison wrote:Look at the dinky, poor excuse of a suspension that Sosa got for cheating (sorry DHC, but it's the truth).


Not a "Corker" fan ... anymore, but he got the same suspension as everyone else who "corked" :-)
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Postby Madison » Sun Sep 21, 2003 4:14 am

wrveres wrote:
Madison wrote:Look at the dinky, poor excuse of a suspension that Sosa got for cheating (sorry DHC, but it's the truth).


Not a "Corker" fan ... anymore, but he got the same suspension as everyone else who "corked" :-)


Any idea how long Albert Belle's suspension was? I'm well aware it was longer than Sammy's.
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Postby timkell » Sun Sep 21, 2003 12:48 pm

Jdh, I never once used Rbi numbers as a reason for Pujols to win. I don't think Barry should be given an advantage for all his walks either. Most of them he doesn't earn.


Madison, I don't care who you like for the MVP, but this statement is ridiculous.

There are many players who stand close to the plate. You ever watch Soriano? He's basically on top of the plate. Carl Everett? Same thing.

Do those guys get almost 200 walks a season? When someone comes and pitches inside to Soriano and Everett, they foul it off. When someone does that to Bonds, it's a home run. He can turn on an inside pitch better than any other hitter. And if you've watched a lot of Bonds' at bats and homers, you'd know that tons of his homers are on inside pitches. So most of the points you'vr been making don't hold up at all.

How does Bond not earn his walks? If a pitcher is terrified to give him one good pitch,and he walks, did he not earn it? If he's intentionally walked, did he not earn it?

If walks were so easy, everyone would get 200.

Most guys stand too close to the plate, so they can power the outside pitch. Unfortunately, when they do that, they get locked up on the inside pitch and can't handle it. Most pitchers don't have the guts to go inside anyway, though, so those pitchers that do, like Pedro, have a lot of success. Bonds, on the other hand, can stand close to the plate, power the outside pitch, and absolutely manhandle inside pitching. That's really what separate him from the pack. His swing is so efficient that he can get around, even on a pitch that's close to hitting him.

So standing close to the plate is not some unfair advantage that Bonds has. It's his ability that's really the unfair part.

Don't say anything about Bonds cheating or gaining unfair advantages or anything because it weakens your entire argument and shows you as biased. It's simply not true. Simply say that you think Pujols has done more for his team because that's true enough.
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Postby Madison » Sun Sep 21, 2003 3:28 pm

timkell wrote:
Jdh, I never once used Rbi numbers as a reason for Pujols to win. I don't think Barry should be given an advantage for all his walks either. Most of them he doesn't earn.


Madison, I don't care who you like for the MVP, but this statement is ridiculous.

How does Bond not earn his walks? If a pitcher is terrified to give him one good pitch,and he walks, did he not earn it? If he's intentionally walked, did he not earn it?

Don't say anything about Bonds cheating or gaining unfair advantages or anything because it weakens your entire argument and shows you as biased. It's simply not true. Simply say that you think Pujols has done more for his team because that's true enough.


Most of Barry's home runs are center of the plate. I've seen enough of them to know. Now why would a pitcher throw him a strike on the outside corner when both players know it's coming? They can't pitch inside to him without hitting him, so they have to throw middle out. Why take the chance? Give him 1B, it's no big deal. In my opinion that's not earning a walk.

As to the unfair advantage, that's kind of amusing to me. I've not said anything negative about Barry. Mlb lets him get away with some things. That's not Barry's fault, but I don't believe he should be rewarded for it either. I also believe that he's too good of a hitter to have to resort to such tactics. As to if he breaks the rules or not, watch an at bat with a top view. Barry is clearly over the line toward the plate. Mlb rules state that a batter must be IN the box and not across any lines. Just because Mlb doesn't enforce that rule (for many players) that doesn't mean that he's not breaking the rules. If you get on the highway and do 125 mph and not get caught, did you break the law? Yes, but you got away with it. Same goes for Barry (and others), except that Mlb is aware that he does it and chooses not to enforce it.

If I was biased against Barry, I have plenty of soap boxes I could get on and bash him. I've not done any of that, and with Barry, there is always something that can be said. I have zero bias for or against Barry. Just because I point out that he breaks a Mlb rule and stands past the line toward the plate, does not mean that I'm biased against him. Sammy corked a bat. Does that make me biased against him? No, I'm simply stating a fact. No different than Barry, and there is plenty of game footage that backs it up.

The MVP race is very close right now and can still go either way. I've said this many times as well. If I was biased against Barry winning, I wouldn't even consider him, I'd try to make a case for Gagne instead (and one can be made). Something else I've said repeatedly is that Barry will probably win the vote, but right now I believe it should go to Pujols. Please take the time to read my posts concerning Bonds/Pujols objectively, before accusing me of bias. Just because I point out facts that some people don't like, it doesn't make me biased. ;-)
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