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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:33 am

bellybrother wrote:
Ender wrote:If you want a guy who was hot for 2 months and stunk the rest of the season then Phillips is your guy! No thanks, he could hit 10 HR, 10 SB and be back in the minors as easily as the stats you posted.


While that's entirely possible, I would argue that he played well(hitting over .300) until Sept, at which time he got tired from wallowing in the minors, and played tuckered out the rest of the year.

He spent thye offseason following a regiment to increase his strength and stamina, so that late season dropoff is less likely this year IMO.

He'll be batting 3rd this year between Dunn and Griffey(when he's in the lineup, when he's hurt, Hamilton will take Jr's spot). So Narron thinks he's gonna produce. And I was watchung a game earlier this week where Dunn hit a monster to center, hitting about halfway up the batter's screen with the announcers proclaing it to be a monster shot to center with the wind blowing in. Phillips promptly followed that with a blast of his own to almost the same spot....except it almost went OVER the screen. Hit about 3 feet below the top.

I paid $10 in my NL only and that's less than half what he'll return.


It was his first full season so I don't worry about the second half fade. He was a top prospect in all of baseball for a reason and showed why last year. He's having a tremendous ST and I think he will have a fine season.
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Postby bellybrother » Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:01 am

Yoda wrote:
bellybrother wrote:
Ender wrote:If you want a guy who was hot for 2 months and stunk the rest of the season then Phillips is your guy! No thanks, he could hit 10 HR, 10 SB and be back in the minors as easily as the stats you posted.


While that's entirely possible, I would argue that he played well(hitting over .300) until Sept, at which time he got tired from wallowing in the minors, and played tuckered out the rest of the year.

He spent thye offseason following a regiment to increase his strength and stamina, so that late season dropoff is less likely this year IMO.

He'll be batting 3rd this year between Dunn and Griffey(when he's in the lineup, when he's hurt, Hamilton will take Jr's spot). So Narron thinks he's gonna produce. And I was watchung a game earlier this week where Dunn hit a monster to center, hitting about halfway up the batter's screen with the announcers proclaing it to be a monster shot to center with the wind blowing in. Phillips promptly followed that with a blast of his own to almost the same spot....except it almost went OVER the screen. Hit about 3 feet below the top.

I paid $10 in my NL only and that's less than half what he'll return.


It was his first full season so I don't worry about the second half fade. He was a top prospect in all of baseball for a reason and showed why last year. He's having a tremendous ST and I think he will have a fine season.


Yeah, yeah, that's what I meant....it just took me a coupla extra paragraphs. Well played.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:26 am

Kotchman is another guy on my watch list.
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Re: Sleepers...

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:40 am

My favorite sleeper every year is my top sleeper again: CC Sabathia.

Only 27 going into 07 with 6 seasons under his belt, he finally broke out in 06, posting:

3.22 ERA, 192.2 IP, 172 K, 44 BB, 8.03 K9, 2.06 BB9, 0.79 HR9, 1.17 WHIP

He really started to mix in his other pitches and took a few MPH off his fastball in favor of control and the results were fantastic. The biggest issue for him is his conditioning and as long as he doesn't pull a Bartolo Colon, I can see him competing for the Cy this year. He's got the tools and the mentality to be a top 10 starter in MLB.

Others I like:
Mike Piazza - should have converted to DH a long time ago Mikey. We should see 30+ HR this year
Conor Jackson - great eye and a great hitter. Power is the only thing missing and it should come very soon. .300, 20 HR...
Jeremy Hermida - chalk it up as an injury year. I can see him rebounding in a big way considering his talent
Felix Hernandez - his peripherals suggest his 06 season was a lot better than it looked on paper. Expect a big rebound. Not top 10 SP but top 30 SP for sure.
Hank Blalock - injuries sapped him of power. Expect 30 HRs.
Bobby Crosby - Sorry Harold, 2006 AL MVP he is not. But a healthy Crosby should be a top 5 SS in the AL
Brad Wilkerson - another injury victim, should benefit from adjustment and good health and good ball park
Kerry Wood - ok I avoided all CHC pitchers for years now. I think he can stay healthy and be dominant as a reliever. How many good-starters-turned-relievers don't excel in that role?

I'll try to come up with some deeper sleepers soon.



Some late round sleepers... (note I did not include any minor leaguers) Some of them might be a bit more obvious.

Kelly Johnson - Great minor league stats, missed most of 06 due to TJ surgery. Has decent pop, speed and OBP skills. Looks for 06 Kinsler-like numbers if he had played a full season while qualifying at 2B, OF and potentially leading off in a great lineup.
Billingsley - top notch talent, his great AAA season didn't exactly translated into the majors in 06. However, he looked pretty filthy in the last month especially in the playoffs.
Chris Burke - Finally has a full time job and ready to fulfill the promise.
Joel Zumaya - Love young, flame throwing relievers like him. He is one too many blown saves or a small injury to the aging Todd Jones to becoming a top 5 closer in the game.
Rafael Soriano - see Zumaya.
Hong Chih Kuo - absolutely filthy in the last three weeks of the season. Might be better in the pen but potentially a great starter.
Jose Lopez - young kid with great pop.
Corey Hart - great power/speed guy who is finally getting a chance to start.


Well, I nailed a few guys: CC, KJ, Billingsley, Hart, Soriano(?), Hermida(?)... Injuries killed these guys: Kuo, Zumaya, Blalock, Wilkerson... The rest just took a crap again this season. :-D
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Re: Sleepers...

Postby The Cow » Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:57 pm

Looking at your sleepers well I liked C.C. a lot this year, but I would hardly call him a sleeper. I drafted him I forget what round exactly, but right before josh Beckett, I think in round 8 of a 10 team league so about pick 77.

A look at the other guys:
Piazza- I thought he was done
Conor Jackson- I thought he lacked the power to be draft worthy at 1B
Hermida- I was burned last year I was not going to touch him.
King Felix- I thought he would be solid, but I thought he was a year or two away, his WHIP scared me off
Bobby Crosby- NO too brittle and has a low BA
Wilkerson- I have never understood people's infatuation with him
Kerry Wood- NO WAY, his arm problems were major league scary
Kelly Johnson- I like this guy as well, but I did not draft him I was able to land Kinsler and Phillips as bargains, would have liked to have Johnson, but you can't have everybody
Billingsley- He really wasn't on my radar, I thought him a bit over rated, but I was wrong here
Burke- Too many other options to consider this guy
Zumaya- would have been worth a late round flier, but someone snatched him up. MRs are only at best late round fliers. I thought Jones had a good handle on that job.
Kuo- I liked his numbers, but his arm was too risky
Jose Lopez- I liked Lopez, but again I liked Kinsler and Phillips more
Corey Hart- I thought of him as a guy to keep an eye on when he gets called up, but not a draftable type. He will be a high pick next year.

Thats what I was thinking on those sleepers,

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Re: Sleepers...

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:01 pm

[quote="The Cow"]Looking at your sleepers well I liked C.C. a lot this year, but I would hardly call him a sleeper. I drafted him I forget what round exactly, but right before josh Beckett, I think in round 8 of a 10 team league so about pick 77. /quote]

A guy drafted in the 8th round putting up 1st round numbers would be a sleeper in my book.
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Re: Sleepers...

Postby Oatsdad » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:28 am

Yoda wrote:
The Cow wrote:Looking at your sleepers well I liked C.C. a lot this year, but I would hardly call him a sleeper. I drafted him I forget what round exactly, but right before josh Beckett, I think in round 8 of a 10 team league so about pick 77.


A guy drafted in the 8th round putting up 1st round numbers would be a sleeper in my book.


Yeah, I'd agree. He's not a super sleeper like Tulo - who went undrafted in most leagues - but he was a great mid-late round pick-up.

Bedard is in the same category. He wasn't an unknown, but he performed much better than anticipated...
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Re: Sleepers...

Postby The Cow » Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:01 pm

I took a look at there C.C. was drafted and he was the 21st SP drafted in my 10 team league, behind guys like Schmidt and Dave Bush yeah Dave Bush. Anyways most teams drafted C.C. with high expectations to be their #2 SP at worst. The thing about fantasy drafts is that teams value hitters much more than pitchers on draft day to the point where quality pitchers are always going to be a good value on draft day. I don't really see C.C. as a sleeper especially when you consider that his numbers this year are almost identical to last year except that he has a few more wins.

The stats:

2006 CLE 28 28 12 11 0 6 2 192.2 182 83 69 17 44 172 3.22 1.17 .247
2007 CLE 32 32 17 7 0 4 1 227.0 225 89 81 19 35 198 3.21 1.15 .260

2006 12 wins
2007 17 wins

ERA and WHIP almost identical. K per IP about the same, he has pitched more innings this year but he also has 4 more starts this year than last. Its easy for me to see that if C.C. had 4 more starts last year he would have had about 14 wins last year compared to 17 this year. I guess I would say that C.C. was a relative draft bargain because of his low win total last year, which was very fluky and a result of the Indians inefficient offense last season. So in the future keep an eye on SPs that had bad luck the previous year as far as wins go, they can be draft day bargains. I think it is safe to say that if C.C. won 17 last year with his 2006 stats he would have been drafted much higher this year. So if a SP had some bad luck and you think that will change maybe the offense is improved then target those guys as bargains next year. Actually I think the bullpen cost C.C. a number of wins last year, the bullpen is improved this year thus more wins.

C.C. really pitched about the same this year as last. Sleeper not to me, but I am a Tribe fan.

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