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List of streaky hitters?

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 10, 2007 2:59 pm

[quote="Trojan PonyYeah, I kinda feel the same way, and I hope there's some data out there (that SI article is a good start). I still think trying to identify streaky hitters by consensus is better than nothing at all. Point well taken though, I agree.[/quote]


I looked at the SI article, but felt the opposite. It was mostly a bunch of random speculations without any evidence for its claims. Not a good start at all, IMO.

The way to do this would be to look at hitters data on a monthly or weekly basis, and calculate a measure of variance in player performance. Players with the greatest variance would be those having the greatest month to month or week to week variation in their performance. In other words, a guy who batted the exact same week after week or month after month would have a variance of 0.
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Re: List of streaky hitters?

Postby AdvRider » Sat Mar 10, 2007 4:48 pm

Trojan Pony wrote:I'm wondering if anyone out there compiled a list of streaky hitters for this year based on real data.


Good list. Add Bill Hall and Eric Byrnes. The real data behind Byrnes is that anytime he gets hot and I pick him up, he suddenly gets colder than a penguin ... :-?
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Postby tms298 » Sat Mar 10, 2007 4:55 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I looked at the SI article, but felt the opposite. It was mostly a bunch of random speculations without any evidence for its claims. Not a good start at all, IMO.

The way to do this would be to look at hitters data on a monthly or weekly basis, and calculate a measure of variance in player performance. Players with the greatest variance would be those having the greatest month to month or week to week variation in their performance. In other words, a guy who batted the exact same week after week or month after month would have a variance of 0.


This is absolutely correct. They didn't look for consistency on a week in and week out basis. They looked for outperformance against a benchmark for most weeks. Looking at the players that were on the list for being "consistent", they were all top tier players who you would expect to be better than average on a given week.

The correct way to look at this would be to compare a player's stats for each week to his own stats at the end of the year. This would measure consistency and the statistics would be normalized to the players performance over the whole year.
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Postby Trojan Pony » Sat Mar 10, 2007 5:57 pm

tms298 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I looked at the SI article, but felt the opposite. It was mostly a bunch of random speculations without any evidence for its claims. Not a good start at all, IMO.

The way to do this would be to look at hitters data on a monthly or weekly basis, and calculate a measure of variance in player performance. Players with the greatest variance would be those having the greatest month to month or week to week variation in their performance. In other words, a guy who batted the exact same week after week or month after month would have a variance of 0.


This is absolutely correct. They didn't look for consistency on a week in and week out basis. They looked for outperformance against a benchmark for most weeks. Looking at the players that were on the list for being "consistent", they were all top tier players who you would expect to be better than average on a given week.

The correct way to look at this would be to compare a player's stats for each week to his own stats at the end of the year. This would measure consistency and the statistics would be normalized to the players performance over the whole year.

You know what, when you put it that way, that makes sense. I guess I assumed SI was using the player's own statistics to calculate the "Average" or whatever, not the statistics of all hitters in the league, which makes it less useful. However, it stands to reason that a guy who hits above the league average for 7 weeks and then below the average the other 19 or whatever weeks is still somewhat of a streaky hitter since he's putting up the bulk of his production over a mere third of the season. It's not a great measure, and certainly not as good as I thought, but it's also not totally useless...
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Postby Trojan Pony » Sat Mar 10, 2007 6:01 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The way to do this would be to look at hitters data on a monthly or weekly basis, and calculate a measure of variance in player performance. Players with the greatest variance would be those having the greatest month to month or week to week variation in their performance. In other words, a guy who batted the exact same week after week or month after month would have a variance of 0.

Exactly. That's what I was hoping to find somewhere out there... If someone here with enough statistical skill were to do that, they would definitely entrer the pantheon of fantasy baseball in my book.... O:-)
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Postby fbc_fan » Sat Mar 10, 2007 11:12 pm

i'd add jason bay to the list. last year he put up almost 1/3 of his HR/RBI in may. he also had his highest HR total (9) from 05 in may. this could just be a coincidence though.
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Postby thedude » Sun Mar 11, 2007 12:11 am

Chris Shelton.
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Postby Trojan Pony » Sun Mar 11, 2007 3:02 am

LOL, does Shelton even qualify? His entire history of major league production was one big streak and aside from that he's done virtually nothing.
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Postby Ender » Sun Mar 11, 2007 9:54 am

You would need at least 4 years of data to really convince me someone is streaky and its not just a fluke. Also keep in mind every single player in baseball is streaky, every one of them. What you would be looking for are players who are abnormally streaky.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 11, 2007 2:56 pm

Ender wrote:You would need at least 4 years of data to really convince me someone is streaky and its not just a fluke. Also keep in mind every single player in baseball is streaky, every one of them. What you would be looking for are players who are abnormally streaky.


I'm with you, Ender. IMO, everyone goes through these streaks, and it would take a lot of data to identify the streakiest. Furthermore, I'm not sure what use it would be. I suppose you might want to avoid steakier guys, but I'm not sure that's a good strategy. Even if you could identify streakier players, that does not mean you can predict who will go on a hot streak and when, so you can't time pick-ups or trades.

I think, in the end, it would be a lot of work for little payoff.
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