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Fantasy Moneyball...?

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Fantasy Moneyball...?

Postby RugbyD » Sat Mar 10, 2007 9:18 pm

has i gotten to thge point where SPs after the 2nd round are now undervalued? (Carp, Peavy, Z, Oz, Hallladay, etc). seems like there is a lot to be had and little to be lost here, but people just pick hitters b/c thats what in en vogue. thoughts?
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Postby DevilDriver » Sat Mar 10, 2007 10:08 pm

Alot of people (including me) don't like taking SPs early because they tend to be more volatile than hitters. I wouldn't pick one of the guys you mentioned until the 4th round at the earliest, but they usually end up going in the 3rd. There's not a huge dropoff between them and SPs that can be had later in rounds 5/6/7 (Sheets, Bonderman, Smoltz, Lackey, etc).
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Postby ayebatter » Sun Mar 11, 2007 12:55 am

It only takes 1 early pick (other than Santana), to start a run of SPs. I'd rather have middle tier OFs than middle tier SPs.
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Postby Ender » Sun Mar 11, 2007 1:49 am

Nope, pitchers are riskier than hitters and mid tier pitchers are better than mid tier hitters. Using Yahoo stats because they are handy which granted isn't great but its consistent year to year at least.

Top pitchers in 2005

Carpenter
Santana
Willis
Pedro
Pettitte
Clemens
Oswalt
Peavy
RJ
Colon
Zambrano
Smoltz
Myers
Buerhle
Beckett

Top 15 in 2006

Santana
Smoltz
Carpenter
Webb
Zambrano
Harang
Mussina
Oswalt
Arroyo
Halladay
Bonderman
Lackey
Sabathia
Johnson
Peavy

Only 7 players make both lists. I actually targetted 6 guys in 2006 that didn't make the 2005 list and its a big part of why I won my leagues. There is no reason to take a pitcher in the first 3 rounds unless one drops a full round farther than you expected.
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Postby ayebatter » Sun Mar 11, 2007 9:04 am

So, should i just use last yrs. stats, to draft with this yr. 8-o
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