Adam Loewen - thoughts?

Sleepers, updates, strategy, advice ... if it doesn't fit one of the more specialized categories, it goes right here! (Note: Please do NOT post trade, keeper or 'rate my team' questions - they have separate forums.)

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

captoats85
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:19 pm

Adam Loewen - thoughts?

Post by captoats85 »

In 5.2 innings tonight, he walked 7 guys. On the year, he's walked 19 guys in 19.1 IP while allowing 18 hits, generating a rather disgusting WHIP near 2.000. He's fanned 13, but the bottom line is he has been horrendous and is lucky his ERA is 3.72. That luck can't last.

Where is the guy from ST? 22 IP, 14 H, 9 BB, 23 K, 1.64 ERA... can a guy do a more complete 180 than that? Granted it was spring training, but it looks like he's given back any progress he's made. Several people, including Goldstein at BP, were gushing about him:

".... I am EXTREMELY BULLISH on Adam Loewen -- big big sleeper and I think he'll have a very good season." - 3/21/07 - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/ ... chatId=272

It's April, so there's time to turn things around, but with absolutely no command... the chances are slim to none.
jbones733
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2004 1:38 am
Roster Information: 12 team H2H league 9X9 (doubles, triples, holds, doubles, etc)

C Pudge
1B R Howard
2B R Weeks
SS J Lugo
3B A Ramirez
IF E Chavez
LF Markakis
CF Sizemore
Rf D Young
Of J Hamilton
UT Victorino
B A Gordon
B A Huff
B K Johnson
B B Butler


staff

SP Dice-K
SP Hamels
SP R Hill
SP Wainwright
SP D Cabrera

RP K Rod
RP A Reyes
P Merdith
P R Soriano


DL Dotel

14 team league (H2H) (10x10) lots of cat's

C M Barrett
1B A Pujols
2B H Kendrick
SS M Young
3B A Ramirez
LF A Lind
CF J Hamilton
RF D young
OF W Taveras
UT P Fielder
UT C Quentin
B A Gordon
B C Crisp
B A Huff

SP B Webb
SP M Cain
SP E Santana
SP J Maine
SP J Shields

RP Papelbon
RP B Myers
RP Meridith
RP Soria
RP Neshek

Dl Zumaya

Post by jbones733 »

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=loewen

walks wayyyyy to many people, & my league counts walks against for pitchers, so he's useless to me,
High Heater
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 4:11 pm
Beginner: No
Roster Information: 14 team Dynasty league * =bench

LINEUP
C: Ramon Hernandez
1b: Prince Fielder
2b: Kelly Johnson
3b: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Stephen Drew
IF: Joey Votto
OF: Corey Hart
OF: Alfonso Soriano
OF: Josh Hamilton
UTIL: Nate McLouth

BN: *Felipe Lopez
BN: *Jarrod Saltalamacchia
BN: *Jeremy Hermida
BN: *Joe Crede
BN: *Justin Upton
BN: *Elijah Dukes
BN: *Mike Moustakas
BN: *Travis Hafner

ROTATION
SP: Josh Beckett
SP: John Smoltz
SP: Justin Verlander
SP: Javier Vazquez
SP: Dustin McGowan
RP: Kerry Wood
RP: George Sherill

BN: *Rich Hill
BN: *Joel Zumaya
BN: *Carlos Marmol
BN: *Rick Porcello
BN: *Kevin Gregg
BN: *Jo-Jo Reyes

Post by High Heater »

reminds me ALOT of DCab in every sense of the word...

who knows if either will develop command but there cieling is extremely high if they ever do.
captoats85
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:19 pm

Post by captoats85 »

Should have taken Igawa, Gorzelanny among a few others before I took Loewen. :-t
jswede
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2006 8:18 pm
Roster Information: B. McCann C
T. Helton 1B
J. Vidro 2B
D. Wright 3B
F. Lopez SS
C. Crawford OF
K. Griffey OF
V. Guerrero OF
H. Matsui DH
Z. Duke SP
F. Hernandez SP
J. Patterson SP
D. Haren SP
J. Smoltz SP
J. Papelbon RP

9 team 5x5

Post by jswede »

I like Loewen - he had some great stuff for a few batters at a time. Of the 7 BBs, 3 were in the 6th - he looked like he'd just finished a marathon in that inning. Exhausted. Completely different motion, the follow-thru was 2/3 of what it had been in the first 4 innings. He was practically still standing up straight after throwing, and that resulted in less power and floating balls well above the strike zone. He lacks stamina, far as I can tell.
smoovethug
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 1:58 am
Beginner: No

Post by smoovethug »

High Heater wrote:reminds me ALOT of DCab in every sense of the word...

who knows if either will develop command but there cieling is extremely high if they ever do.


Really? I think of DCab as a strikeout pitcher who's wild. I don't really think of Loewen as a strikeout pitcher. I had him for his first 3 starts but those walks were just too much for me to handle.
MotorCityKitties
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2006 1:24 pm

Post by MotorCityKitties »

I liked him heading out of spring training, but I have changed my mind. I would be excited if I were an Orioles fan for the future, but he is too unstable for any of my fantasy teams.
GotowarMissAgnes
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:26 pm
Beginner: No
Roster Information: 16 Team 6x6 (Holds and OPS) 10 Keeper League
C Russell Martin
1B Albert Pujols
2B Kelly Johnson
3b David Wright
SS Alexei Ramirez
OF Corey Hart
OF Nate McLouth
OF Pat Burrell
Util Billy Butler
Util Mark Reynolds
BN
Luke Scott
Orlando Hudson
Fred Lewis
Todd Helton

SP
Roy Halladay
Josh Johnson
Javier Vazquez
Randy Johnson
Manny Parra
Tommy Hanson
RP
Frank Francisco
Brandon Lyon
J.J. Putz
Takashi Saito
Jason Motte

Post by GotowarMissAgnes »

smoovethug wrote:
High Heater wrote:reminds me ALOT of DCab in every sense of the word...

who knows if either will develop command but there cieling is extremely high if they ever do.


Really? I think of DCab as a strikeout pitcher who's wild. I don't really think of Loewen as a strikeout pitcher. I had him for his first 3 starts but those walks were just too much for me to handle.


Loewen averaged more than a strikeout an inning in the minors. So far, he's averaged 7.85 K/9 compared to Cabrera's 7.68 in the majors. And Loewen's performed better than Cabrera at every point in his career at a younger age to boot.

Loewen's ceiling is about 10 stories higher than Cabrera's, though Cabrera may be a little better this year.
godallahstar
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Sun May 09, 2004 8:08 pm
Beginner: No

Post by godallahstar »

why do you think Loewens ceiling is much higher than Cabreras?

If cabrera could harness his stuff, he would be fantastic.
GotowarMissAgnes
T-Ball Trainer
Posts: 0
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:26 pm
Beginner: No
Roster Information: 16 Team 6x6 (Holds and OPS) 10 Keeper League
C Russell Martin
1B Albert Pujols
2B Kelly Johnson
3b David Wright
SS Alexei Ramirez
OF Corey Hart
OF Nate McLouth
OF Pat Burrell
Util Billy Butler
Util Mark Reynolds
BN
Luke Scott
Orlando Hudson
Fred Lewis
Todd Helton

SP
Roy Halladay
Josh Johnson
Javier Vazquez
Randy Johnson
Manny Parra
Tommy Hanson
RP
Frank Francisco
Brandon Lyon
J.J. Putz
Takashi Saito
Jason Motte

Post by GotowarMissAgnes »

godallahstar wrote:why do you think Loewens ceiling is much higher than Cabreras?

If cabrera could harness his stuff, he would be fantastic.


1. The facts show Loewen's better. At every level Loewen's performed better than Cabrera, even though he was younger.

At age 20 Cabrera was pitching in short season rookie ball. He had a 5.53 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 7.97K/9 and 8.63 BB/9
At age 20, Loewen was playing A ball, 3 levels greater difficulty than Cabrera. He had a 4.11 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 9.64 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9

At age 21 Cabrera was at full season rookie ball again. He had a 3.28 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.29 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9. It's a good showing, but he's playing mostly against guys fresh our of high school and college.
At age 21, Loewen is again three levels higher than Cabrera, plaing A+ ball against guys who have 1-2 years more professional experience than he does. He has a 4.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9.25 K/9 and 5.45 BB/9. On the raw numbers, Cabrera might look better, but any reasonable level od difficulty adjustment for leagues completely reverses that.

Finally, at age 22, Cabrera plays A ball (a level Loewen did well at as a 20 year old). He posts a 4.24 ERA, witha 1.46 WHIP, 8.62 K/9 and 5.60 BB/9. In other words, despite being 2 years older, Cabrera pitches worse than Loewen in his first try at A ball.

At age 22, Loewen pitches in AA, AAA, and MLB, 3-5 levels of difficulty greater than Cabrera was at that age. He puts together a 4.17 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.54 K/9 and 4.46 BB/9.

2. If every great thrower could harness his stuff, there would be a lot of great pitchers. But, there's difference between a pitcher and a thrower. Loewen's a pitcher. He strikes out as many or more batters than Cabrera and gives up fewer walks.

There will be a year or two that Cabrera may be better than Loewen, because he's 3 years older and closer to his peak and has already seen major league hitters for 450 IP. But, if you are looking for long-term value, Loewen's the one you want. He's proven it all through the minors and it's only a matter of time until he shows it in the majors.
Post Reply

Return to “Baseball Leftovers”