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Adam Loewen - thoughts?

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Adam Loewen - thoughts?

Postby captoats85 » Sat Apr 21, 2007 9:14 pm

In 5.2 innings tonight, he walked 7 guys. On the year, he's walked 19 guys in 19.1 IP while allowing 18 hits, generating a rather disgusting WHIP near 2.000. He's fanned 13, but the bottom line is he has been horrendous and is lucky his ERA is 3.72. That luck can't last.

Where is the guy from ST? 22 IP, 14 H, 9 BB, 23 K, 1.64 ERA... can a guy do a more complete 180 than that? Granted it was spring training, but it looks like he's given back any progress he's made. Several people, including Goldstein at BP, were gushing about him:

".... I am EXTREMELY BULLISH on Adam Loewen -- big big sleeper and I think he'll have a very good season." - 3/21/07 - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/ ... chatId=272

It's April, so there's time to turn things around, but with absolutely no command... the chances are slim to none.
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Postby jbones733 » Sat Apr 21, 2007 9:22 pm

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=loewen

walks wayyyyy to many people, & my league counts walks against for pitchers, so he's useless to me,
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Postby High Heater » Sat Apr 21, 2007 9:46 pm

reminds me ALOT of DCab in every sense of the word...

who knows if either will develop command but there cieling is extremely high if they ever do.
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Postby captoats85 » Sat Apr 21, 2007 9:52 pm

Should have taken Igawa, Gorzelanny among a few others before I took Loewen. :-t
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Postby jswede » Sat Apr 21, 2007 10:08 pm

I like Loewen - he had some great stuff for a few batters at a time. Of the 7 BBs, 3 were in the 6th - he looked like he'd just finished a marathon in that inning. Exhausted. Completely different motion, the follow-thru was 2/3 of what it had been in the first 4 innings. He was practically still standing up straight after throwing, and that resulted in less power and floating balls well above the strike zone. He lacks stamina, far as I can tell.
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Postby smoovethug » Sat Apr 21, 2007 10:18 pm

High Heater wrote:reminds me ALOT of DCab in every sense of the word...

who knows if either will develop command but there cieling is extremely high if they ever do.


Really? I think of DCab as a strikeout pitcher who's wild. I don't really think of Loewen as a strikeout pitcher. I had him for his first 3 starts but those walks were just too much for me to handle.
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Postby MotorCityKitties » Sun Apr 22, 2007 12:29 am

I liked him heading out of spring training, but I have changed my mind. I would be excited if I were an Orioles fan for the future, but he is too unstable for any of my fantasy teams.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Apr 22, 2007 6:57 am

smoovethug wrote:
High Heater wrote:reminds me ALOT of DCab in every sense of the word...

who knows if either will develop command but there cieling is extremely high if they ever do.


Really? I think of DCab as a strikeout pitcher who's wild. I don't really think of Loewen as a strikeout pitcher. I had him for his first 3 starts but those walks were just too much for me to handle.


Loewen averaged more than a strikeout an inning in the minors. So far, he's averaged 7.85 K/9 compared to Cabrera's 7.68 in the majors. And Loewen's performed better than Cabrera at every point in his career at a younger age to boot.

Loewen's ceiling is about 10 stories higher than Cabrera's, though Cabrera may be a little better this year.
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Postby godallahstar » Sun Apr 22, 2007 7:32 am

why do you think Loewens ceiling is much higher than Cabreras?

If cabrera could harness his stuff, he would be fantastic.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:15 am

godallahstar wrote:why do you think Loewens ceiling is much higher than Cabreras?

If cabrera could harness his stuff, he would be fantastic.


1. The facts show Loewen's better. At every level Loewen's performed better than Cabrera, even though he was younger.

At age 20 Cabrera was pitching in short season rookie ball. He had a 5.53 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 7.97K/9 and 8.63 BB/9
At age 20, Loewen was playing A ball, 3 levels greater difficulty than Cabrera. He had a 4.11 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 9.64 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9

At age 21 Cabrera was at full season rookie ball again. He had a 3.28 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.29 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9. It's a good showing, but he's playing mostly against guys fresh our of high school and college.
At age 21, Loewen is again three levels higher than Cabrera, plaing A+ ball against guys who have 1-2 years more professional experience than he does. He has a 4.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9.25 K/9 and 5.45 BB/9. On the raw numbers, Cabrera might look better, but any reasonable level od difficulty adjustment for leagues completely reverses that.

Finally, at age 22, Cabrera plays A ball (a level Loewen did well at as a 20 year old). He posts a 4.24 ERA, witha 1.46 WHIP, 8.62 K/9 and 5.60 BB/9. In other words, despite being 2 years older, Cabrera pitches worse than Loewen in his first try at A ball.

At age 22, Loewen pitches in AA, AAA, and MLB, 3-5 levels of difficulty greater than Cabrera was at that age. He puts together a 4.17 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.54 K/9 and 4.46 BB/9.

2. If every great thrower could harness his stuff, there would be a lot of great pitchers. But, there's difference between a pitcher and a thrower. Loewen's a pitcher. He strikes out as many or more batters than Cabrera and gives up fewer walks.

There will be a year or two that Cabrera may be better than Loewen, because he's 3 years older and closer to his peak and has already seen major league hitters for 450 IP. But, if you are looking for long-term value, Loewen's the one you want. He's proven it all through the minors and it's only a matter of time until he shows it in the majors.
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