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SP/RP relievers with good ratios

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Postby hot4tx » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:14 pm

It doesn't take a very specialized league for MRs to help you in ERA, WHIP, Ks and even Ws. Compare what their 80-90 innings do for your ratios, Ks and wins with the back-end SPs you could draft around the same time. These SP guys usually hurt your ERA and WHIP, and don't get that many more Ks or Wins in double the IPs.

Also factor in that many of the top MRs are the next in line to be good closers, when 30-40% of the closer jobs flip each year.



A MR guy with an upper 2s ERA does more to help your overall ERA in his 80 innings than a mid-tier SP with a high 3 ERA and can be drafted much later. Do the math, I wasn't a believer until 3 years ago.
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Postby Mortician » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:20 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
Mortician wrote:
Drunken Rhino wrote:
Mortician wrote:I would add Sowers to the list of starters for good ratios, and can be had cheap. Since his call-up, he's put up Glavine-esque numbers (I know I'm getting waay ahead of myself).

'06 = 88 IP 3.57 ERA 1.19 WHIP

'07 = 22IP 4.76 ERA 1.41 WHIP *
*(07 #'s tainted by one bad start against the yanks, which any regular fantasy player knows not to start a mid-level pitcher against the yanks)
'07 minus the Start against Yanks = 2.70 ERA 1.10 WHIP


Mort, you got the point of this thread wrong. It's mostly for RPs that qualify at SP and will post good ratios while doing so in the SP slot.

That being said, I want no part of Sowers in fantasy baseball. Think 2006 Wang w/ even LESS Ks.


Well, than whats the point of carrying middle relievers on a team that doesnt count holds??? Oh Wait, its for help in ratios! Sowers so far in his career has put up middle reliever type ratios with starters innings...I'll take that anyday. Remember, not everyone plays with small roster sizes where non-closing relievers and back end starters are useless. In a league that ounts k/9, I'm with you on Sowers. But in a league where most teams carry 12-14 SP's,and the best WW pitcher is Jae Seo, having a guy like Sowers allows you to carry a guy like Claudio Vargas, Ollie Perez, or James Shields and not get destroyed in ratios. If you take a guy like Zambrano as your #1 starter as opposed to say Halladay, you're going to have to make up for the WHIP differential somewhere in your rotation. RATIOS NEED SOME LOVIN TOO!


It's not like an 3.00 ERA from a MR is the same as from a SP, IP/weight of the ratio has to be considered. Therefore, a high K/9 from a RP relative to K/9s of SPs is about as valuable as good ratios, so what it really comes down to is the viability of using a roster spot for a low weight (IP) guy. Based on 12-team "stnd" play, Shields is the only MR with the consistency to use such a spot on in a draft, aside from closer potential. Deeper leagues will have more, but still few. It would take a pretty unique roster/league set up to make these SP/RP guys viable.


I understand your reasoning, but in a league like I mentioned, It is more valuable to have a guy throw 200 innings with an ERA below your league avg. than a guy who will throw 70 innings with an ERA below your leagues avg.. The only way your mathematical reasoning would collaborate with a league is if K/9 is a category, which I stated it isn't, and if there is a limit on innings pitched, which, based on my statement on avg SP/Team, I assumed you would obviously conclude there is no limit.

BTW: Shields was in reference to James Shields, the SP, not scot shields, the MR
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Postby roncool11 » Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:38 pm

Brett Myers he's supposed to be closer noe
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Postby hot4tx » Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:46 pm

Mortician wrote:I understand your reasoning, but in a league like I mentioned, It is more valuable to have a guy throw 200 innings with an ERA below your league avg. than a guy who will throw 70 innings with an ERA below your leagues avg.. The only way your mathematical reasoning would collaborate with a league is if K/9 is a category, which I stated it isn't, and if there is a limit on innings pitched, which, based on my statement on avg SP/Team, I assumed you would obviously conclude there is no limit.

BTW: Shields was in reference to James Shields, the SP, not scot shields, the MR


But you can get MRs with ERAs much, much, much lower than the league average.... here's some 2006 stats...

Joel Zumaya 1.94 ERA over 83.1 IP
Dan Wheeler 2.52 ERA over 71.1 IP
Jonathan Broxton 2.59 ERA over 76.1 IP
Cla Meredith 1.07 ERA over 50.2 IP
Pedro Feliciano 2.09 ERA over 60.1 IP

Hector Carrasco 3.41 ERA over 100.1 IP
Oscar Villarreal 3.61 ERA over 92.1 IP

All of these guys would help your ERA more than SPs that would be drafted around the same time... the Millwood, Garland Penny types who have ERAs in the low 4s.

Let's even say you can get a guy late with a solid mid-to-upper 3 ERA... we'll call him T Glavine. Well, maybe we'll call him Tommy G. If the average fantasy ERA is a 4 ERA then adding 200 IP of Tommy's 3.65 ERA to 1060 innings of 4.0 ERA gives you a 3.94 ERA for your team. Adding Pedro Feliciano's 2006 numbers to your same 1060 innings gives you a 3.90 ERA, even though he only pitched 60 innings. Broxton would have given you a 3.91 ERA, Meridith a 3.87, etc... and this is a special case in Glavine that we're talking about here.

So basically if you have room on your roster for 2 or 3 of these top MR pitchers they can combine to basically make a top ACE... Broxton, Zumaya and Carrasco would have combined for 17 wins, 266 Ks, 5 SVs, a 2.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 255 innings last year. And all could be drafted in the later rounds when people are drafting crappy SPs.
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Postby Mortician » Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:09 pm

hot4tx wrote:
Mortician wrote:I understand your reasoning, but in a league like I mentioned, It is more valuable to have a guy throw 200 innings with an ERA below your league avg. than a guy who will throw 70 innings with an ERA below your leagues avg.. The only way your mathematical reasoning would collaborate with a league is if K/9 is a category, which I stated it isn't, and if there is a limit on innings pitched, which, based on my statement on avg SP/Team, I assumed you would obviously conclude there is no limit.

BTW: Shields was in reference to James Shields, the SP, not scot shields, the MR


But you can get MRs with ERAs much, much, much lower than the league average.... here's some 2006 stats...

Joel Zumaya 1.94 ERA over 83.1 IP
Dan Wheeler 2.52 ERA over 71.1 IP
Jonathan Broxton 2.59 ERA over 76.1 IP
Cla Meredith 1.07 ERA over 50.2 IP
Pedro Feliciano 2.09 ERA over 60.1 IP

Hector Carrasco 3.41 ERA over 100.1 IP
Oscar Villarreal 3.61 ERA over 92.1 IP

All of these guys would help your ERA more than SPs that would be drafted around the same time... the Millwood, Garland Penny types who have ERAs in the low 4s.

Let's even say you can get a guy late with a solid mid-to-upper 3 ERA... we'll call him T Glavine. Well, maybe we'll call him Tommy G. If the average fantasy ERA is a 4 ERA then adding 200 IP of Tommy's 3.65 ERA to 1060 innings of 4.0 ERA gives you a 3.94 ERA for your team. Adding Pedro Feliciano's 2006 numbers to your same 1060 innings gives you a 3.90 ERA, even though he only pitched 60 innings. Broxton would have given you a 3.91 ERA, Meridith a 3.87, etc... and this is a special case in Glavine that we're talking about here.

So basically if you have room on your roster for 2 or 3 of these top MR pitchers they can combine to basically make a top ACE... Broxton, Zumaya and Carrasco would have combined for 17 wins, 266 Ks, 5 SVs, a 2.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 255 innings last year. And all could be drafted in the later rounds when people are drafting crappy SPs.


wow...this is getting blown way out of proportion...Al I ever said originally was that Sowers, a starter with very good career ratios of ERA and WHIP, albeit over a very short career, would be a decent player to have in a league where starters are overvalued and wins tough to come by. I agree with having good MR's on a team.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:09 pm

hot4tx wrote:
Mortician wrote:I understand your reasoning, but in a league like I mentioned, It is more valuable to have a guy throw 200 innings with an ERA below your league avg. than a guy who will throw 70 innings with an ERA below your leagues avg.. The only way your mathematical reasoning would collaborate with a league is if K/9 is a category, which I stated it isn't, and if there is a limit on innings pitched, which, based on my statement on avg SP/Team, I assumed you would obviously conclude there is no limit.

BTW: Shields was in reference to James Shields, the SP, not scot shields, the MR


But you can get MRs with ERAs much, much, much lower than the league average.... here's some 2006 stats...

Joel Zumaya 1.94 ERA over 83.1 IP
Dan Wheeler 2.52 ERA over 71.1 IP
Jonathan Broxton 2.59 ERA over 76.1 IP
Cla Meredith 1.07 ERA over 50.2 IP
Pedro Feliciano 2.09 ERA over 60.1 IP

Hector Carrasco 3.41 ERA over 100.1 IP
Oscar Villarreal 3.61 ERA over 92.1 IP

All of these guys would help your ERA more than SPs that would be drafted around the same time... the Millwood, Garland Penny types who have ERAs in the low 4s.

Let's even say you can get a guy late with a solid mid-to-upper 3 ERA... we'll call him T Glavine. Well, maybe we'll call him Tommy G. If the average fantasy ERA is a 4 ERA then adding 200 IP of Tommy's 3.65 ERA to 1060 innings of 4.0 ERA gives you a 3.94 ERA for your team. Adding Pedro Feliciano's 2006 numbers to your same 1060 innings gives you a 3.90 ERA, even though he only pitched 60 innings. Broxton would have given you a 3.91 ERA, Meridith a 3.87, etc... and this is a special case in Glavine that we're talking about here.

So basically if you have room on your roster for 2 or 3 of these top MR pitchers they can combine to basically make a top ACE... Broxton, Zumaya and Carrasco would have combined for 17 wins, 266 Ks, 5 SVs, a 2.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 255 innings last year. And all could be drafted in the later rounds when people are drafting crappy SPs.


You're monday morning quarterbacking it though. Look at all the potential of SPs who are drafted in late rounds to pan out. MRs are more variable than SP and have a lower payout. You're easily best off to invest time in predicting and betting on SPs.
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Postby hot4tx » Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:19 pm

Mortician wrote:I agree with having good MR's on a team.


Oh, I thought you were the guy that didn't believe in having MRs, except S Shields on a fantasy team. Sorry.

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:You're monday morning quarterbacking it though. Look at all the potential of SPs who are drafted in late rounds to pan out. MRs are more variable than SP and have a lower payout. You're easily best off to invest time in predicting and betting on SPs.


The problem is that very, very few of those SPs that are drafted in the late rounds "pan out" to anything but mediocre. There are several MRs that consistently put up low-3 and even sub-3 ERAs that can be had around the same time. Much less chance of them killing your ratios, and at the same time many of them would make very good closers should the current closer get injured or not get the job done. Therefore, I'd argue they've got almost as much total potential, but a greater chance to reach it than the late-round SPs. And even if they don't they still really help your team vulturing Ws and SVs and getting great ERA, WHIP and K/IP.

Like I said, until 3 years ago I never drafted MRs but I've come around and like to draft 2-3 of them in every non-points league (if I've got roster space).
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Postby LukeW9027 » Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:37 pm

Chad Gaudin has pitched well this year.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:05 pm

hot4tx wrote:
Mortician wrote:I agree with having good MR's on a team.


Oh, I thought you were the guy that didn't believe in having MRs, except S Shields on a fantasy team. Sorry.

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:You're monday morning quarterbacking it though. Look at all the potential of SPs who are drafted in late rounds to pan out. MRs are more variable than SP and have a lower payout. You're easily best off to invest time in predicting and betting on SPs.


The problem is that very, very few of those SPs that are drafted in the late rounds "pan out" to anything but mediocre. There are several MRs that consistently put up low-3 and even sub-3 ERAs that can be had around the same time. Much less chance of them killing your ratios, and at the same time many of them would make very good closers should the current closer get injured or not get the job done. Therefore, I'd argue they've got almost as much total potential, but a greater chance to reach it than the late-round SPs. And even if they don't they still really help your team vulturing Ws and SVs and getting great ERA, WHIP and K/IP.

Like I said, until 3 years ago I never drafted MRs but I've come around and like to draft 2-3 of them in every non-points league (if I've got roster space).


A small exercise using z-score based valuation methods and not using positional scarcity or dollar value adjustments:

These pitchers were not drafted in early to mid rounds last season and are not closers, with their overall rank listed.
<pre>Liriano 41
Mussina 45 (marginal, but came off two poor seasons)
Harang 59
Chris Young 62
Jered Weaver 65
John Lackey 67
Jermermy Bonderman 93
Dave Bush 98
Derek Lowe 100*
Josh Johnson 104
Ervin Santana 108
Verlander 109</pre>

... and there are still no MRs in sight. Shields finished 142, Zumaya 136.

Trust me, it takes a unique scenario to make anyone with a history and manager unlike Scot Shields has to make them draft worthy in "standard" 12-team yahoo. No one around here with credibility is going to flat-out appeal than fact unless it's for ishts and giggles.
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