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Novice to BABIP analysis. Basic question

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Novice to BABIP analysis. Basic question

Postby brock middlebrook » Tue Apr 24, 2007 9:50 am

Why should we expect BABIP to regress to a mean of about .290?


If a guy is hittong the ball hard, shouldn't his BABIP be higher than the mean?



Go ahead and flame me.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Apr 24, 2007 9:59 am

BABIP doesn't measure how hard a guy hits it, it measures WHERE he hits it. If you rip the cover off of it right at a guy, you are just as out as if you hit a grounder. By the same token, somebody w/ a 'touch' for bunting or blooping it in, can get H off of essentially 'weak' hitting. Baseball Forecaster also considers this an element of luck, in that a guy w/ a high BABIP is considered 'lucky' and likely due to regress (in terms of his BA, which is dependent on BABIP).
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:05 am

.290 BABIP is used for pitchers. A BABIP above or below the mark will give you an indication of how much defense and luck played a part in the pitcher's outings. .290 doesn't translate to hitters. Many hitters can consistently maintain a much higher BABIP. You need to look at the career numbers for hitters.
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Postby masterpinky0509 » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:09 am

On average, hitters and pitchers should obviously have the same BABIP (otherwise where would the extra hits be coming from?).

But good hitters have better BABIP's than bad hitters, b/c they consistently hit the ball harder. There's a stat that measures this, called line drive percentage, but it's hard to find on the web (sometimes fantasy columnists mention it). The basic idea there is that weak hitters hit ground balls, and a lower percentage of ground balls turn into hits b/c you have more defenders and less space on the infield (duh). On the other hand, anything out in the outfield has a much lower chance of getting caught.

BABIP also changes for speedy people vs. slow people. Generally, speedy people will be at .320 or above in BABIP b/c their ability to beat out infield hits increases (you really only need 4-5 of those a year to raise BABIP significantly).
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:24 am

Amazinz wrote:.290 BABIP is used for pitchers. A BABIP above or below the mark will give you an indication of how much defense and luck played a part in the pitcher's outings. .290 doesn't translate to hitters. Many hitters can consistently maintain a much higher BABIP. You need to look at the career numbers for hitters.

I thought it was the other way around. I thought the hitter's BABIP of .250 was pretty much the gold standard for all but the best 5% of hitters, but the .290 mark for pitchers was more susceptible to individual variations.

I'll research and return.

ps - BABIP works for hitters because the theory is that most batters actually can't control where their ground balls go (note that BABIP only applies to ground balls). Since players can't control the location of their ground balls, luck is a major factor regarding whether or not they end up with a hit (generally, a single). It turns out that almost all batters are subject to this "rule," and the mean of ground balls that end up as hits tends to hover right around 25% (or .250).
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Postby brock middlebrook » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:24 am

masterpinky0509 wrote:On average, hitters and pitchers should obviously have the same BABIP (otherwise where would the extra hits be coming from?).

But good hitters have better BABIP's than bad hitters, b/c they consistently hit the ball harder. There's a stat that measures this, called line drive percentage, but it's hard to find on the web (sometimes fantasy columnists mention it). The basic idea there is that weak hitters hit ground balls, and a lower percentage of ground balls turn into hits b/c you have more defenders and less space on the infield (duh). On the other hand, anything out in the outfield has a much lower chance of getting caught.

BABIP also changes for speedy people vs. slow people. Generally, speedy people will be at .320 or above in BABIP b/c their ability to beat out infield hits increases (you really only need 4-5 of those a year to raise BABIP significantly).


I agree with this analysis.

Why do I see people reversing this and saying that a guy with high BABIP is expected to regress.
People say that a low BABIP guy is "unlucky" where I might say he's just not getting good wood on the ball.




The same with a pitchers. If a guy is hard to hit then I would expect a goood pitcher to have a lower BABIP than the norm.
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Postby Ender » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:24 am

BABIP tends to regress to your career normals, .290 is just something you use for players who don't have enough of a track record.

Personally I think singles rate is a better stat but its not as easily available just yet.
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:25 am

masterpinky0509 wrote:But good hitters have better BABIP's than bad hitters, b/c they consistently hit the ball harder. There's a stat that measures this, called line drive percentage, but it's hard to find on the web (sometimes fantasy columnists mention it).

Not hard to find at all. Just go to FanGraphs.com - the greatest non-Cafe site on the Internet.

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Postby Ender » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:27 am

StlSluggers wrote:
masterpinky0509 wrote:But good hitters have better BABIP's than bad hitters, b/c they consistently hit the ball harder. There's a stat that measures this, called line drive percentage, but it's hard to find on the web (sometimes fantasy columnists mention it).

Not hard to find at all. Just go to FanGraphs.com - the greatest non-Cafe site on the Internet.

;-D


Problem with line drive rate is it doesn't show a strong correlation from year to year.
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:29 am

Ender wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:
masterpinky0509 wrote:But good hitters have better BABIP's than bad hitters, b/c they consistently hit the ball harder. There's a stat that measures this, called line drive percentage, but it's hard to find on the web (sometimes fantasy columnists mention it).

Not hard to find at all. Just go to FanGraphs.com - the greatest non-Cafe site on the Internet.

;-D


Problem with line drive rate is it doesn't show a strong correlation from year to year.

I use the GB/LD/FB percentages to verify if the stats we're seeing from a hitter mix well with the type of hits he's getting. If a guy has a FB% of only 5% but has 20 HRs by the All-Star Break, I'd bet he's not going to replicate those numbers afterwards (extreme example for emphasis).

Anyway, he just said the data was hard to come by. It's not.
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