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Is the K for a hitter over emphisized?

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Postby Big Blue » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:48 pm

I believe the high count does lend to more streaks and while it is great to ride to hot streak and I have done this many times it also lends itself to prolonged slumps very dangerous in H2H where everything goes week to week rather then season long.
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Postby Madison » Sun Jan 11, 2004 4:16 am

Wow, 2 pages and no one has mentioned the #1 reason why I'm not big on hitters who K a lot. Interesting.........

Plenty of good reasons out there, extended slumps, not much of a ceiling, contact leads to more possible hits, etc.

.250 average is a killer since your other hitters have to make up for his negative batting average. That would be like carrying a starter with a 4.90 era just because he gets wins. Your other pitchers would have to make up for that.

Anyway the #1 reason why I do not draft .250 hitters who k is very simple. Lost rbi opportunities. Man on 3rd, less than 2 outs, give me the guy that makes contact. Sacrifice fly or rbi groundout. You don't get an rbi for a k. Simple.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:27 am

Madison wrote:Anyway the #1 reason why I do not draft .250 hitters who k is very simple. Lost rbi opportunities. Man on 3rd, less than 2 outs, give me the guy that makes contact. Sacrifice fly or rbi groundout. You don't get an rbi for a k. Simple.


There's really not much to be gained if anything. One, sac flies account for only 1% of outs made, or roughly 1 sac fly every 2 games (54 outs). Two, sac flies account for about 6% of total rbis. And bad average guys get them about as much as contact guys. Lets compare a career 330 hitter Gwynn to a 250 hitter Burnitz. Both guys in career have averaged a sac fly every .0091 abs, or roughly 9 sac flies every 1,000 abs. I bet the difference you believe is there is only 1 or 2 rbis a year difference, if that. Hardly worth worrying about. Really, contact isn't what you want when you need a sac fly, it's a flyball. And guys with high g/f ratios like Gwynn, are about a much a given to get the sac fly, as Burnitz who doesn't make contact, but has a low g/f ratio, which means he hits a ton of flyballs, which explains his 30 hrs with few hits. Ichiro in his mvp year with nearly 700 abs, only had 4 sac flies. Burnitz had 4 that year in 130 fewer abs.

Strikeout totals don't matter as much as the so/w ratio. You can k 150 times if you walk 100. That's much prefable to a 60k 20 walk guy.

In real life, not striking out really isn't much of a advantage, over hitting a groundout or popout. In one certain situation it can be, but over a season it has little effect. It's really overblown. A study showed the difference between a guy who k's 50 times with 20 dps, only creates 2 more runs then a hitter with 150 k's and 10 dps. 2 runs created over a season isn't alot to get too excited about. Like GTWMA stated, hitting into a dp is worse then striking out. The bottom line is making outs is bad. In a certain situation, a k is worse.

The troubling thing on Burnitz is his walk rate has declined alot. He's down to a 300 oba guy. That kind of high out rate doesn't look good, even in Coors. He might hit 35 hrs, but his oba is so low, i don't see many runs.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:33 am

sooner711 wrote:Personally I look at BA rather than K's.


Looking at average only can lead you down the wrong road. A 300 average in LA, is far different then 300 in Coors. A big change in hit rate% can effect a average, say a 30% to 36% difference in seasons.
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Postby Madison » Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:25 am

HOOTIE wrote:
Madison wrote:Anyway the #1 reason why I do not draft .250 hitters who k is very simple. Lost rbi opportunities. Man on 3rd, less than 2 outs, give me the guy that makes contact. Sacrifice fly or rbi groundout. You don't get an rbi for a k. Simple.


There's really not much to be gained if anything. One, sac flies account for only 1% of outs made, or roughly 1 sac fly every 2 games (54 outs). Two, sac flies account for about 6% of total rbis. And bad average guys get them about as much as contact guys. Lets compare a career 330 hitter Gwynn to a 250 hitter Burnitz. Both guys in career have averaged a sac fly every .0091 abs, or roughly 9 sac flies every 1,000 abs. I bet the difference you believe is there is only 1 or 2 rbis a year difference, if that. Hardly worth worrying about. Really, contact isn't what you want when you need a sac fly, it's a flyball. And guys with high g/f ratios like Gwynn, are about a much a given to get the sac fly, as Burnitz who doesn't make contact, but has a low g/f ratio, which means he hits a ton of flyballs, which explains his 30 hrs with few hits. Ichiro in his mvp year with nearly 700 abs, only had 4 sac flies. Burnitz had 4 that year in 130 fewer abs.

Strikeout totals don't matter as much as the so/w ratio. You can k 150 times if you walk 100. That's much prefable to a 60k 20 walk guy.

In real life, not striking out really isn't much of a advantage, over hitting a groundout or popout. In one certain situation it can be, but over a season it has little effect. It's really overblown. A study showed the difference between a guy who k's 50 times with 20 dps, only creates 2 more runs then a hitter with 150 k's and 10 dps. 2 runs created over a season isn't alot to get too excited about. Like GTWMA stated, hitting into a dp is worse then striking out. The bottom line is making outs is bad. In a certain situation, a k is worse.

The troubling thing on Burnitz is his walk rate has declined alot. He's down to a 300 oba guy. That kind of high out rate doesn't look good, even in Coors. He might hit 35 hrs, but his oba is so low, i don't see many runs.


Ok that takes my sac fly out of play. Any idea how many rbi's they get on groundouts?

You probably will shoot that down too, but it's just a thing with me. I see it pretty often each year for some reason on my fantasy teams. A groundout rbi and/or a sac fly. Seems a lot more common to me than that. I can't disagree with the stats, but it just seems to happen a lot. I'm probably wrong, but that's my thinking. Plus, I really hate to see one of my guys strikeout with less than 2 outs and a man at 3B. Lol. :-D
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Postby KULCAT » Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:45 am

Striking out a lot can mean getting into prolonged slumps. besides i think is better to always put the ball in play. You dont drive a guy from third to home with a strikeout. You do with a pop out
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jan 11, 2004 7:31 am

KULCAT wrote:Striking out a lot can mean getting into prolonged slumps. besides i think is better to always put the ball in play. You dont drive a guy from third to home with a strikeout. You do with a pop out


True in a given SPECIFIC situation, putting the ball in play helps, but a sac fly happens so rarely, it only amounts to 1% of total outs. 1% of a given stat isn't significant. The downside to few k's is more dps.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jan 11, 2004 7:45 am

Madison wrote:Ok that takes my sac fly out of play. Any idea how many rbi's they get on groundouts?
You probably will shoot that down too, but it's just a thing with me. I see it pretty often each year for some reason on my fantasy teams. A groundout rbi and/or a sac fly. Seems a lot more common to me than that. I can't disagree with the stats, but it just seems to happen a lot. I'm probably wrong, but that's my thinking. Plus, I really hate to see one of my guys strikeout with less than 2 outs and a man at 3B. Lol. :-D


No idea, but it's not much i would think. Of course hitting the ball will in the end produce a rbi, and a k won't, but the real life effect is the extra dps, that likely increase with more contact. How many guys score on a groundout? Not alot in reality.

Think about this. With 2 outs, does it matter how the out came? No. You just eliminated 33.3% of every out in history. Does it matter if the leadoff guy of every inning k's or groundsout? No. The scenerios where a groundball or flyball help, aren't as often as some make it seem. Mcgwire got alot of rbis being a 260 low contact guy. Preston Wilson had 141 rbis striking out alot. It probably means a rbi here and there, but nothing i would worry about.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jan 11, 2004 7:57 am

I just want to be clear. Making contact over not making contact has a advantage, it's just not big. So that's why i think amount of k's is overblown. I have seen 1,300 k teams outscore 800 k teams.

The biggest advantage of making contact and not striking out, isn't rbis, or moving a runner. It's the possibility of a error. But like the study showed, the difference in 100 k's, with more dps, amounts to only about 2 runs a year. Times that by 9 in a lineup, and you are talking maybe 18 runs over a season, not alot. And that's if all 9 hitters go from 150 k to 50. Probably about 2% increase in total runs.
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Postby KULCAT » Sun Jan 11, 2004 8:35 am

HOOTIE wrote:
KULCAT wrote:Striking out a lot can mean getting into prolonged slumps. besides i think is better to always put the ball in play. You dont drive a guy from third to home with a strikeout. You do with a pop out


True in a given SPECIFIC situation, putting the ball in play helps, but a sac fly happens so rarely, it only amounts to 1% of total outs. 1% of a given stat isn't significant. The downside to few k's is more dps.


Also there´s there´s the chance of the fielders making some mistake, the runner beating the throw to first, getting the doubleplay but still advancing the guy in third. I dont know i just rather have the chance that something happens
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