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As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby davidmarver » Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:28 am

If Josh Beckett had made every start he was scheduled to make this season, the innings difference could be attributed to a difference in managerial philosophy and bullpen effectiveness. However, Beckett has less innings because of a finger injury he had in May that cost him a couple starts. If you factor in replacement-level stats for Beckett over the course of those starts (I think it was two?) then he's definitely been less valuable than Santana, Sabathia, and Bedard.
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby thedude » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:16 am

davidmarver wrote:If Josh Beckett had made every start he was scheduled to make this season, the innings difference could be attributed to a difference in managerial philosophy and bullpen effectiveness. However, Beckett has less innings because of a finger injury he had in May that cost him a couple starts. If you factor in replacement-level stats for Beckett over the course of those starts (I think it was two?) then he's definitely been less valuable than Santana, Sabathia, and Bedard.


Bedard is hurt and and out for the rest of the year.
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby 5 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:43 pm

CC deserves it.

So where are all those Johan fans now?
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:44 pm

5 wrote:So where are all those Johan fans now?

What do you mean?
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby Yoda » Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:54 pm

5 wrote:CC deserves it.

So where are all those Johan fans now?


Right here. He is still the best pitcher on the planet IMO. He is having a subpar Santana year so far which is still better than 99.9% of pitchers.
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:32 pm

Yoda wrote:
5 wrote:CC deserves it.

So where are all those Johan fans now?


Right here. He is still the best pitcher on the planet IMO. He is having a subpar Santana year so far which is still better than 99.9% of pitchers.

Exactly. He's like Pujols: You take him because even in his worst year, he's still better than 95% of the pack.
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Postby daullaz » Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:04 pm

Even if you'd consider this year sub-par, I'd still take Johan for my Cy Young vote in the AL.
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby RynMan » Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:36 pm

Santana would be my 2nd pick for Cy Young.
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Re:

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:44 pm

daullaz wrote:Even if you'd consider this year sub-par, I'd still take Johan for my Cy Young vote in the AL.

There is very little basis for giving Santana the Cy Young this year. For the most part, the stats are pretty balanced between Santana, Beckett, and Sabathia this year. You can pick the ones you want to support your favorite choice, but ultimately it comes down to won-loss record this year. Yes, I know you are all getting ready to type a response talking about how wins don't matter and how meaningless they are, and I agree to a large extent, but there's something about examining stats in a vacuum that completely misses out on the essence of the game and completely ignores that a pitcher does have a big hand in deciding his won/loss fate.

Let's just look at how many of each pitcher's wins and losses were "earned" or "deserved" this year. Let's use 3 ER as a baseline and say that a pitcher "deserved" one of his losses if he gave up 3 or more ER in a game and "deserved" one of his wins if he gave up 3 ER or fewer. Then let's say that a pitcher deserved additional wins when he got a no-decision while giving up fewer than 3 ER, and deserved additional losses when he got a no-decision while giving up more than 3 ER. This will let us filter the actually achieved results through a "fairness filter":

Wins:
- Santana: Of his 15 wins, he got 3 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 12.
- Beckett: Of his 19 wins, he only got 1 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 18.
- Sabathia: Of his 17 wins, he got 2 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 15.

Losses:
- Santana: Of his 12 losses, 3 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 9 of them.
- Beckett: Of his 6 losses, 2 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 4 of them.
- Sabathia: Of his 7 losses, 3 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 4 of them.

No-Decisions:
- Santana: He got 2 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and no NDs when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he deserved 2 more wins.
- Beckett: He got 2 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and 1 ND when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he deserved 2 more wins and 1 more loss.
- Sabathia: He got 6 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and 2 ND when he gave up more than 4 ER, so he deserved 6 more wins and 2 more losses.

Put it all together, and you could say that these are the following "earned" records:
- Santana: 14-9
- Beckett: 20-5
- Sabathia: 21-6.

Whether you agree with my methodology or not, I think it illiustrates that VERY few of Beckett's wins were "hollow" ones only gained by huge run support, that Sabathia got screwed way more than Santana and Beckett, and that Sabathia and Beckett are very much the two deserved front-runners in this race. If I get time, I'll run the other contenders through this filter to see where they fall.

Thoughts?
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Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby RynMan » Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:09 pm

I'm still not convinced that wins are anything but worthless. Sorry. :-/
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