Bloody Sox wrote:daullaz wrote:Even if you'd consider this year sub-par, I'd still take Johan for my Cy Young vote in the AL.

There is very little basis for giving Santana the Cy Young this year. For the most part, the stats are pretty balanced between Santana, Beckett, and Sabathia this year. You can pick the ones you want to support your favorite choice, but ultimately it comes down to won-loss record this year. Yes, I know you are all getting ready to type a response talking about how wins don't matter and how meaningless they are, and I agree to a large extent, but there's something about examining stats in a vacuum that completely misses out on the essence of the game and completely ignores that a pitcher does have a big hand in deciding his won/loss fate.

Let's just look at how many of each pitcher's wins and losses were "earned" or "deserved" this year. Let's use 3 ER as a baseline and say that a pitcher "deserved" one of his losses if he gave up 3 or more ER in a game and "deserved" one of his wins if he gave up 3 ER or fewer. Then let's say that a pitcher deserved additional wins when he got a no-decision while giving up fewer than 3 ER, and deserved additional losses when he got a no-decision while giving up more than 3 ER. This will let us filter the actually achieved results through a "fairness filter":

Wins:

- Santana: Of his 15 wins, he got 3 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 12.

- Beckett: Of his 19 wins, he

only got 1 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 18.

- Sabathia: Of his 17 wins, he got 2 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 15.

Losses:

- Santana: Of his 12 losses, 3 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 9 of them.

- Beckett: Of his 6 losses, 2 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 4 of them.

- Sabathia: Of his 7 losses, 3 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 4 of them.

No-Decisions:

- Santana: He got 2 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and no NDs when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he deserved 2 more wins.

- Beckett: He got 2 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and 1 ND when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he deserved 2 more wins and 1 more loss.

- Sabathia: He got

6 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and 2 ND when he gave up more than 4 ER, so he deserved 6 more wins and 2 more losses.

Put it all together, and you could say that these are the following "earned" records:

- Santana: 14-9

- Beckett: 20-5

- Sabathia: 21-6.

Whether you agree with my methodology or not, I think it illiustrates that VERY few of Beckett's wins were "hollow" ones only gained by huge run support, that Sabathia got screwed way more than Santana and Beckett, and that Sabathia and Beckett are very much the two deserved front-runners in this race. If I get time, I'll run the other contenders through this filter to see where they fall.

Thoughts?