Return to Baseball Leftovers

As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:10 pm

I'd vote for Johan. If you look at the Hardball Times, they have a stat called PRC, which is essentially a Runs Created stat for pitchers (a run prevented is the same as a run scored...). In any case, it looks like this:

Code: Select all
Pitcher      IP     PRC
Johan      209.0    125
Sabathia   227.0    124
Bedard     182.0    114
Beckett    188.2    114


Johan has prevented more runs than any other pitcher in baseball. Bedard's numbers would be sick if he'd stayed healthy enough to pitch all season. Beckett actually has a similar ratio of PRC/IP as Johan but the 20+ IP difference hurts him IMO. CC is a decent choice as well, but the extra IP helps him a lot. In any case, if you're looking for the best pitcher over the course of the whole year, you should be looking at Johan IMO.
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13224
(Past Year: -486)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:42 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:I'd vote for Johan. If you look at the Hardball Times, they have a stat called PRC, which is essentially a Runs Created stat for pitchers (a run prevented is the same as a run scored...). In any case, it looks like this:

Code: Select all
Pitcher      IP     PRC
Johan      209.0    125
Sabathia   227.0    124
Bedard     182.0    114
Beckett    188.2    114


Johan has prevented more runs than any other pitcher in baseball. Bedard's numbers would be sick if he'd stayed healthy enough to pitch all season. Beckett actually has a similar ratio of PRC/IP as Johan but the 20+ IP difference hurts him IMO. CC is a decent choice as well, but the extra IP helps him a lot. In any case, if you're looking for the best pitcher over the course of the whole year, you should be looking at Johan IMO.



Don't you think it's a little narrow minded to point to one esoteric stat and say you decision is based on that? I mean, I'm all fine with using esoteric stats, sabermetrics, and such as I think it brings up interesting points, but to just pick one off a website and use it as a justification seems narrow to me. Does CC not get any bonus points for being the biggest horse of all of them? I mean on one hand you say Beckett is nearly on the same rate as Johan at PRC, but say his 20 less IP hurts him, but with CC you say his 20 extraIP hurts him, sounds like your trying to hard to come to a specific answer.

Do CC and Beckett get no bonus in that they were performing while they had something to play for, is there no added bonus for pitching under a certain level of pressure, esp. CC? I know a lot of people tend to like to throw wins out the window, which is fine by me, but shouldn't things that a little more intangible than stats be regarded as well. I'm not trying to say Johan shouldn't be the Cy Young, but rather shouldn't more than one stat or a few select stats be the measuring tool for the award.
Image
TheA'sFatLeadoffMan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1502
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Re:

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:48 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
daullaz wrote:Even if you'd consider this year sub-par, I'd still take Johan for my Cy Young vote in the AL.

There is very little basis for giving Santana the Cy Young this year. For the most part, the stats are pretty balanced between Santana, Beckett, and Sabathia this year. You can pick the ones you want to support your favorite choice, but ultimately it comes down to won-loss record this year. Yes, I know you are all getting ready to type a response talking about how wins don't matter and how meaningless they are, and I agree to a large extent, but there's something about examining stats in a vacuum that completely misses out on the essence of the game and completely ignores that a pitcher does have a big hand in deciding his won/loss fate.

Let's just look at how many of each pitcher's wins and losses were "earned" or "deserved" this year. Let's use 3 ER as a baseline and say that a pitcher "deserved" one of his losses if he gave up 3 or more ER in a game and "deserved" one of his wins if he gave up 3 ER or fewer. Then let's say that a pitcher deserved additional wins when he got a no-decision while giving up fewer than 3 ER, and deserved additional losses when he got a no-decision while giving up more than 3 ER. This will let us filter the actually achieved results through a "fairness filter":

Wins:
- Santana: Of his 15 wins, he got 3 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 12.
- Beckett: Of his 19 wins, he only got 1 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 18.
- Sabathia: Of his 17 wins, he got 2 when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he "earned" 15.

Losses:
- Santana: Of his 12 losses, 3 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 9 of them.
- Beckett: Of his 6 losses, 2 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 4 of them.
- Sabathia: Of his 7 losses, 3 came when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, so he deserved 4 of them.

No-Decisions:
- Santana: He got 2 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and no NDs when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he deserved 2 more wins.
- Beckett: He got 2 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and 1 ND when he gave up more than 3 ER, so he deserved 2 more wins and 1 more loss.
- Sabathia: He got 6 NDs when he gave up fewer than 3 ER, and 2 ND when he gave up more than 4 ER, so he deserved 6 more wins and 2 more losses.

Put it all together, and you could say that these are the following "earned" records:
- Santana: 14-9
- Beckett: 20-5
- Sabathia: 21-6.

Whether you agree with my methodology or not, I think it illiustrates that VERY few of Beckett's wins were "hollow" ones only gained by huge run support, that Sabathia got screwed way more than Santana and Beckett, and that Sabathia and Beckett are very much the two deserved front-runners in this race. If I get time, I'll run the other contenders through this filter to see where they fall.

Thoughts?


That's not Wins and Losses though, that's your own deviation of wins and losses, under your own guidelines/rules, you took a real stat and put your own framework around it. So at this point you aren't arguing the validity of W-L records, but what you believe constitutes a W or a L, and it's relevence.
Image
TheA'sFatLeadoffMan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1502
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:53 pm

TheA'sFatLeadoffMan wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:I'd vote for Johan. If you look at the Hardball Times, they have a stat called PRC, which is essentially a Runs Created stat for pitchers (a run prevented is the same as a run scored...). In any case, it looks like this:

Code: Select all
Pitcher      IP     PRC
Johan      209.0    125
Sabathia   227.0    124
Bedard     182.0    114
Beckett    188.2    114


Johan has prevented more runs than any other pitcher in baseball. Bedard's numbers would be sick if he'd stayed healthy enough to pitch all season. Beckett actually has a similar ratio of PRC/IP as Johan but the 20+ IP difference hurts him IMO. CC is a decent choice as well, but the extra IP helps him a lot. In any case, if you're looking for the best pitcher over the course of the whole year, you should be looking at Johan IMO.



Don't you think it's a little narrow minded to point to one esoteric stat and say you decision is based on that? I mean, I'm all fine with using esoteric stats, sabermetrics, and such as I think it brings up interesting points, but to just pick one off a website and use it as a justification seems narrow to me. Does CC not get any bonus points for being the biggest horse of all of them? I mean on one hand you say Beckett is nearly on the same rate as Johan at PRC, but say his 20 less IP hurts him, but with CC you say his 20 extraIP hurts him, sounds like your trying to hard to come to a specific answer.

Do CC and Beckett get no bonus in that they were performing while they had something to play for, is there no added bonus for pitching under a certain level of pressure, esp. CC? I know a lot of people tend to like to throw wins out the window, which is fine by me, but shouldn't things that a little more intangible than stats be regarded as well. I'm not trying to say Johan shouldn't be the Cy Young, but rather shouldn't more than one stat or a few select stats be the measuring tool for the award.


:-)

Ok, I did say that Beckett not pitching a full season hurts him. I think it does. And I never said that CC's IP hurt him, but rather the only reason he's close to Johan in PRC is because of the extra IP. It's not like Johan went on the DL or anything... In any case, you want to bring up other stats? Like how Johan beats all of them in K, ERA, and WHIP? The only place he's lacking is Wins. So I didn't really feel the need to justify the other numbers. I wasn't trying to point to Johan, all of the numbers (with the exception of the almighty win) point to Johan. The particular stat I chose just showed his dominance the best.

And as far as the Cy Young, I really don't see the need to bring unquantifiable "intangibles" into the mix. I can sort of see it for MVP (if you get into the whole "Can you really be valuable if your team stinks?" argument), but not a "best pitcher" award. I'm fine with voting CC second, but I still think Johan is the best pitcher in the AL, bar none.
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13224
(Past Year: -486)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:13 am

He is the best pitcher in the AL, but this year hasn't been his best. C.C. has 20 more IP nearly, that's significant and more than makes up for what is currently a very insignificant difference in ERA. He's posted 2 more QS, put less strain on his bullpen, and the WHIP is also a small difference, I mean when your giving a big edge to differences of less than a 1/10, your being a little obsessive. A pitcher should be determined by his ability to give his team a chance to win non-specific to the quality of his team, and CC has done that better than Johan, and not because he has more wins, but because he asks less of his bullpen, he posts more QS's, puts up nearly identical ERA and WHIP, certainly Johan's K's put less strain on the defense but how significant is that? When ERA and WHIP are so similar I fail to see how such a significant difference in IP and and the smaller difference in QS .
Image
TheA'sFatLeadoffMan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1502
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby RynMan » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:39 am

I find it amusing that we go to such lengths to argue a case for a pitcher for Cy Young, when in reality the voters will probably log on to ESPN, sort by wins....slide across to ERA and tick a box within minutes. !+)
Image
RynMan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerAward-Winning Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 8664
(Past Year: -227)
Joined: 4 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Oztailia

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby StlSluggers » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:34 am

RynMan wrote:I find it amusing that we go to such lengths to argue a case for a pitcher for Cy Young, when in reality the voters will probably log on to ESPN, sort by wins....slide across to ERA and tick a box within minutes. !+)

Reality makes me :~( :~( :~(
Image
Want an easy icon?
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=133
All you have to do is beat a few guys at picking Sunday's winners.[/url]
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14415
(Past Year: -301)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:39 pm

TheA'sFatLeadoffMan wrote:He is the best pitcher in the AL, but this year hasn't been his best. C.C. has 20 more IP nearly, that's significant and more than makes up for what is currently a very insignificant difference in ERA. He's posted 2 more QS, put less strain on his bullpen, and the WHIP is also a small difference, I mean when your giving a big edge to differences of less than a 1/10, your being a little obsessive. A pitcher should be determined by his ability to give his team a chance to win non-specific to the quality of his team, and CC has done that better than Johan, and not because he has more wins, but because he asks less of his bullpen, he posts more QS's, puts up nearly identical ERA and WHIP, certainly Johan's K's put less strain on the defense but how significant is that? When ERA and WHIP are so similar I fail to see how such a significant difference in IP and and the smaller difference in QS .


You just said that Johan deserves the Cy Young, the award for best pitcher in the AL. I mean yeah, you can say you'd vote for 2006 Johan over 2007 Johan, but those two are not competing. Just because he didn't put up numbers that matched previous years doesn't mean he should be penalized. Not in my book anyway.
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13224
(Past Year: -486)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:57 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
TheA'sFatLeadoffMan wrote:He is the best pitcher in the AL, but this year hasn't been his best. C.C. has 20 more IP nearly, that's significant and more than makes up for what is currently a very insignificant difference in ERA. He's posted 2 more QS, put less strain on his bullpen, and the WHIP is also a small difference, I mean when your giving a big edge to differences of less than a 1/10, your being a little obsessive. A pitcher should be determined by his ability to give his team a chance to win non-specific to the quality of his team, and CC has done that better than Johan, and not because he has more wins, but because he asks less of his bullpen, he posts more QS's, puts up nearly identical ERA and WHIP, certainly Johan's K's put less strain on the defense but how significant is that? When ERA and WHIP are so similar I fail to see how such a significant difference in IP and and the smaller difference in QS .


You just said that Johan deserves the Cy Young, the award for best pitcher in the AL. I mean yeah, you can say you'd vote for 2006 Johan over 2007 Johan, but those two are not competing. Just because he didn't put up numbers that matched previous years doesn't mean he should be penalized. Not in my book anyway.


No, the Cy Young is not the award for the best pitcher in the AL. It is the award for the pitcher who performed the best in the AL. The two are not necessarily synonymous. St. Louis wasn't the best team in baseball last year, but they performed the best (when it counted) and as such they won the World Series. If Santana was 10-20 with a 4.50 ERA right now, I'd still think he's the best pitcher in baseball, but obviously wouldn't deserve the Cy Young.
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
Bloody Sox
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2140
Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Fenway Park, RF Roof Deck

Re: As of today, which pitcher could win the Cy Young?

Postby nsulham » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:02 pm

CC sure did make a strong case for himself today, all but putting the final nail in Detroit's coffin.

I'm pretty sure these things are decided after the season but if they weren't, I'd almost rather CC win it because then I have a feeling Beckett would enter the postseason with a chip on his shoulder wanting to prove everyone wrong.

Either way though you can't go wrong with either of these guys. They are both deserving; obviously I'd like to see Beckett win it but if it's CC that's totally fine by me, he is most definitely deserving.
nsulham
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4845
(Past Year: -38)
Joined: 26 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Charlottesville

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron