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Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Secret Avatar » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:38 pm

Arod will absolutely go #1 next year in 99.99 percent of drafts. Hands-down, no question. I'd grab Pujols #2 but I suspect he'll fall into the mid-1st round in a lot of drafts last year, and be a steal.

I agree that most rankings have Howard going way too early. He'll hit a lot of HR, sure, but the BA is potentially a killer, he won't steal any bases, and he'll be light on runs too. I'd take Holliday or MCab over Howard in a second and then grab Ortiz, Tex, Fielder, etc. on the way back. Come to think of it, I'd take Fielder over Howard. Call me crazy, but Fielder has close to the same power, a better batting eye, power to all fields, and is 5 years younger.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby George_Foreman » Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:00 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:Any ranking that doesn't have Pujols/Arod in some order at 1/2 is faulty.

It's been true for like 4 or 5 years now. Yet people still keep doing other things. Weird.

Personally, I'll still go Pujols first. Maybe I'm just stuck in a rut (again, being taking Pujols #1 for like 4 or 5 years now. :-D), but I think he'll be back to 40-45 HRs next year.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Simulacrum » Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:15 pm

As long as you take either Pujols or A-Rod you'll be OK.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby cookman » Thu Aug 30, 2007 8:24 pm

Interesting question.

If I had to rank for next year right now:

I think any one of these first four guys could make a case for first pick next year, and I think you could implement a pretty good drafting strategy around all of those guys as your first pick.

1A) A. Rod - Overall top choice as long as he's a Yankee and at 3B, which is just a little shallower than 1B.

1B) Pujols - May slip in some drafts but he's still the best hitter in the bigs IMO; like A Rod this year, water eventually finds its level.

1C) Utley - The safest pick you can make in the draft to outperform at his position. This year, he's still top 5 among 2Bman in 4/5 roto categories, and that's after just missing a month with a broken hand. Last year, he was first among 2Bman in R, HR, RBI, and 3rd for average. If you like drafting for positioin scarcity, this is your guy.

1D) Hanley - Excellent production in 3/5 categories, and 20+ HR power won't leave you deficient there. Behind Utley because short is a little deeper than second and he hits in a much less productive lineup.

--------

5) Reyes - I generally don't like taking guys in the first round for one category, but he makes it so you can forget about steals well into the later rounds of your draft. Plus average and runs, but his deficiency in RBI and HR hurts for a first rounder. You'd definitely need to go after a big bat in round 2.

6) Wright - Excellent production in all categories. Legit 30/30 candidate, should easily go over 100 R and RBI's and hit well over .300.

7) Rollins - Never been a huge Rollins fan, don't know why. But his numbers are very similar to Wright's, and that's pretty good production out of your shortstop.

8) Sizemore - I generally don't take outfielders in the first round. I just think that there are so many available you can usually get good ones late in the draft or on the WW, so I like to focus on my IF first. Sizemore would be the exception though, a 5 category producer capable of putting up better numbers than either of the guys above.

9) M Cabrera - Still one of the best hitters in the game even in that lineup. One guy you don't have to worry about putting up stud numbers.

10) Ortiz - Same argument as above, but falls below Cabrera due to position eligibility and due to injury/aging concerns.

11) Holliday - Has put up sick numbers the last 2 years for a very good offensive team.

12) Vlad - Aging, but still puts up great numbers in a fairly productive lineup.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Simulacrum » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:50 am

It's interesting how these #1's flip-flop. I remember in 2006 A-Rod was also the consensus #1 pick, and he produced less than expected. Not far into the season Pujols started blowing up and the chorus was "anyone who picked A-Rod over Pujols is a tool. Pujols is the better hitter." So in 2007, everyone grabbed Pujols first- I saw A-Rod ranked as low as #6. Now Pujols is the sleeping giant, and everyone's drinking the A-Rod kool-aid.

That's why I say- as long as you take one or the other, you're in good shape with your #1 pick.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby djxskillz » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:55 pm

1. Arod
2. Pujols
3. Hanley
4. Utley
5. Reyes
6-12--up to you. Howard, Wright, Holliday, Ortiz, Mcab, maybe sizemore/fielder/crawford (sizemore/fielder/crawford should be the later picks)

vlad wont go first round--hrs, runs, and sbs are down this year and he was going early 2nd in this year's draft as it is. His draft position will be relatively the same or go down imo.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Ender » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:24 am

Pujols if they sign some players to play around him or if ARod moves to a new team.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Esen » Thu Sep 13, 2007 9:45 pm

bleach168 wrote:You guys forget Santana.

Santana (johan) was not forgotton :) He should not be even top 10.
He is end of first round, should be beginning of 2nd round
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby cookman » Thu Sep 13, 2007 9:58 pm

Esen wrote:
bleach168 wrote:You guys forget Santana.

Santana (johan) was not forgotton :) He should not be even top 10.
He is end of first round, should be beginning of 2nd round


Exactly. To be honest, wouldn't even take him that high. This year was a great example of why you don't spend high draft picks on pitching. Too unpredictable and there's too much value on the WW. You were screwed if you drafted half of the top 20 pitchers (Carpenter, Z, Oswalt, Felix, Halladay, Sheets, just off the top of my head).
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