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Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Yoda » Thu Sep 13, 2007 10:31 pm

I still think Pujols is #1 for next year. I may take Arod but it's close. After them, I'd take Hanley, then Santana. #4 overall for Santana is a pretty sweet deal.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby RynMan » Fri Sep 14, 2007 2:23 am

Simulacrum wrote:It's interesting how these #1's flip-flop. I remember in 2006 A-Rod was also the consensus #1 pick, and he produced less than expected. Not far into the season Pujols started blowing up and the chorus was "anyone who picked A-Rod over Pujols is a tool. Pujols is the better hitter." So in 2007, everyone grabbed Pujols first- I saw A-Rod ranked as low as #6. Now Pujols is the sleeping giant, and everyone's drinking the A-Rod kool-aid.


It's due to the way people put so much stock into what a guy does the previous year. A-Rod has a great year = #1 the following year. Same with Pujols. When really, we need to basically ask ourselves who is primed to have the better year. In this case, I don't think that you can turn turn A-rod's power/speed/consistency combo. But I do think Pujols is still working into his prime.

I wouldn't take Reyes in the first half of the first round, mainly because I think you are setting yourself up for a fall by investing so much in a guy who's value is weighted so heavily on one category. You can afford to do this later on, but not in the first round IMO.

Hanley I like a little better, however the ballpark still scares me. It's a tough place to hit. On top of that, the guy came out of nowhere last year. Even though he has followed that with an even better campaign, I'd still just like to see it one more season to be sure. Not worth risking that 1st rounder for, I believe.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby RynMan » Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:30 am

Snakes Gould wrote:this will be the 2nd year hanley has produced and he was very highly regarded. he didnt really come out of nowhere. if that is your way of thought, you're going to miss out on a lot of good young players.


Maybe I will. Give me consistency with my first round pick any day....and young players are often far from that.

Snakes, have you seen Hanley's minor league numbers? Particularly his power? Is it really that far of a reach to be skeptical about a guy who hits in such a tough hitter's environment, and who showed absent HR power in the minors? Two seasons still isn't enough for me to take an early first round gamble. That's my opinion, and I won't jump on anyone's case for thinking otherwise.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby The Cow » Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:40 am

I think Hanley is a 1st rounder no question, definitely top 5. .320 30/50 guys don't grow on trees. As for Hanley's power he has the frame, 6'3". I would think the reason he showed little power in the minors is that he had not yet grown into his frame. Hanley's power if for real and it will only get better, eventually like all players his speed will fade. Maybe the HGH fairy payed a visit to Hanley's casa. Remember the old saying that power is the last to come. After next year Hanley could very well be the consensus #1 overall pick, if he continues to improve or heck even if he continues this ridiculous .320 30/50 thing. The only drawback I see from Hanley is his shoulder, which could eventually need surgery, this is the only reason to avoid Hanley in round 1 in my book.

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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby DevilDriver » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:13 am

Snakes Gould wrote:this will be the 2nd year hanley has produced and he was very highly regarded. he didnt really come out of nowhere. if that is your way of thought, you're going to miss out on a lot of good young players.


He was a highly regarded prospect, but his minor league numbers don't compare with what he's been able to do in the majors. Judging from that, he came out of nowhere in a sense. I don't think that's not a knock on him though, he's put up great numbers two years in a row and is only getting better.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby bleach168 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:11 pm

cookman wrote:
Esen wrote:
bleach168 wrote:You guys forget Santana.

Santana (johan) was not forgotton :) He should not be even top 10.
He is end of first round, should be beginning of 2nd round


Exactly. To be honest, wouldn't even take him that high. This year was a great example of why you don't spend high draft picks on pitching. Too unpredictable and there's too much value on the WW. You were screwed if you drafted half of the top 20 pitchers (Carpenter, Z, Oswalt, Felix, Halladay, Sheets, just off the top of my head).


If you feel that way, that makes Santana even more valuable for his consistency.

As for too much value on the WW, the top 12 ranked SPs this year were all drafted. You might get a usable guy off WW, but to get an ace you need to draft one. And we all agree Santana is an ace among aces.

17 of the top 25 players in ESPN's 2007 player rater are pitchers. Santana is #3, just two points behind ARod. Pujols is ranked #57.

Rototimes player rater has Santana outscoring Arod and Pujols in the past 4 years. Rototimes has to purposefully skew their dollar values 66/33 in favor of hitters so pitchers like Santana don't dominate.
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Re: Who is next years #1 Draft pick??

Postby Pogotheostrich » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:53 pm

I'd take Pujols in a heartbeat but you can't really fault someone for taking A-Rod. People put way too much emphasis on last year and don't take the time to look at the big picture.
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