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An Intriguing Article on ESPN. No, Seriously.

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Re: An Intriguing Article on ESPN. No, Seriously.

Postby Tavish » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:13 pm

davidmarver wrote:I don't really understand why changing the stat rule even matters. It's not going to affect the scores in games, and it's just going to be a nightmare trying to recalculate history. And even then, the order of the top saves leaders isn't likely to change. This is just an asthetic request.


It would be interesting to see, especially following the layout that was presented. Knocking off all 2 - 3 run one inning saves from the current generation of closers would certainly bring them back to the pack with the pre-Eck generation.
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Re: An Intriguing Article on ESPN. No, Seriously.

Postby RynMan » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:32 pm

davidmarver wrote:I don't really understand why changing the stat rule even matters. It's not going to affect the scores in games, and it's just going to be a nightmare trying to recalculate history.


I'm not even entirely sure it would be. For as long back as play-by-play data goes, it would be simply a matter of running a database query.
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Re: An Intriguing Article on ESPN. No, Seriously.

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:41 pm

Kind of pointless IMO. I've said all along that I don't like how sparingly many closers are used. If you have a guy like Putz who is absolutly lights out, go ahead and use him in the 7th inning rather than the 9th. Honestly, any manager is doing what is best for their team, they don't really care about stats. Do you really think that if the stat was changed to stops, Mike Sochia would say, "Oh now that there is this new stat, I will use k-rod in the 7th inning. If it weren't for stops, I wouldn't use him, even if it means costing my team the game." No, of course he wouldn't say that. Don't be foolish, forget about the new stats, and just leave things the way they are. If a manager is too stupid to put his closer or as you say "#1 reliever" in when the situation is appropriate, he should be fired.
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Re: An Intriguing Article on ESPN. No, Seriously.

Postby buckwild13 » Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:55 am

i know a stop kinda seems like a hold, but why do both of these have to have the pitchers team in the lead. that just devalues good RP on bad teams, esp mid relief guys that come in during a tie game.
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Re: An Intriguing Article on ESPN. No, Seriously.

Postby JTWood » Thu Sep 13, 2007 8:48 am

buckwild13 wrote:i know a stop kinda seems like a hold, but why do both of these have to have the pitchers team in the lead. that just devalues good RP on bad teams, esp mid relief guys that come in during a tie game.

The problem, of course, is that it's very hard to determine the value of someone who pitches 6 innings every five days in comparison to someone who pitches a third of an inning every other day. If you can't compare those guys, then you certainly will have problems comparing someone who pitches in the 7th vs someone who pitches in the 9th. Personally, I like the Win Percentage Added stat that they track over at FanGraphs. The stat inherently tells you if the pitcher pitches well, but it is magnified if they pitched well or poorly when it matters most.

Top 50 WPA for RP:

Code: Select all
Rank   Name   WPA
1   J.J. Putz   5.18
2   Takashi Saito   4.63
3   Rafael Betancourt   4.4
4   Jonathan Papelbon   4.01
5   Joaquin Benoit   3.36
6   Jason Isringhausen   3.3
7   Tony Pena   3.29
8   Heath Bell   3.16
9   Joe Nathan   3.07
10   Hideki Okajima   3.02
11   Pat Neshek   2.9
12   Joakim Soria   2.89
13   Brandon Lyon   2.73
14   Carlos Marmol   2.65
15   Kevin Gregg   2.48
16   Matt Capps   2.44
17   Rafael Perez   2.4
18   Peter Moylan   2.39
19   Manuel Corpas   2.27
20   Zack Greinke   2.24
21   Alan Embree   2.18
22   Francisco Rodriguez   2.01
23   Jose Valverde   2
24   Billy Wagner   1.98
25   Mariano Rivera   1.97
26   Chad Qualls   1.87
27   Chad Cordero   1.82
28   Brad Lidge   1.8
29   Ryan Franklin   1.8
30   Trevor Hoffman   1.79
31   Rafael Soriano   1.69
32   J.C. Romero   1.65
33   Pedro Feliciano   1.65
34   Jonathan Broxton   1.64
35   Brian Shouse   1.63
36   Clay Condrey   1.61
37   C.J. Wilson   1.59
38   David Weathers   1.58
39   Matt Herges   1.5
40   Jesus Colome   1.48
41   Bobby Seay   1.46
42   Scot Shields   1.44
43   Scott Downs   1.41
44   Matt Guerrier   1.4
45   Francisco Cordero   1.36
46   Jeremy Accardo   1.31
47   Al Reyes   1.27
48   Bob Howry   1.25
49   Joe Borowski   1.24
50   Russ Springer   1.23


Top 50 WPA for SP:

Code: Select all
Rank   Name   WPA
1   Jake Peavy   4.4
2   Erik Bedard   3.87
3   Fausto Carmona   3.63
4   C.C. Sabathia   3.44
5   Brad Penny   3.27
6   Kelvim Escobar   3.25
7   Chris Young   3.08
8   Brandon Webb   3
9   Roy Halladay   2.88
10   Josh Beckett   2.66
11   Dan Haren   2.52
12   Tom Gorzelanny   2.49
13   Roy Oswalt   2.48
14   James Shields   2.48
15   Aaron Harang   2.41
16   Mark Buehrle   2.39
17   Joe Blanton   2.34
18   Johan Santana   2.29
19   Chien-Ming Wang   2.22
20   Cole Hamels   2.17
21   Justin Verlander   2.14
22   John Smoltz   2.09
23   Jeremy Guthrie   2.06
24   Jeff Francis   2.05
25   Ben Sheets   2.03
26   John Lackey   2.02
27   Greg Maddux   1.93
28   Matt Cain   1.89
29   Tom Glavine   1.86
30   Shaun Marcum   1.85
31   A.J. Burnett   1.83
32   Orlando Hernandez   1.77
33   Shawn Hill   1.74
34   Javier Vazquez   1.62
35   John Maine   1.56
36   Scott Kazmir   1.48
37   Chad Billingsley   1.44
38   Tim Hudson   1.43
39   Rich Hill   1.42
40   Ted Lilly   1.4
41   Yovani Gallardo   1.33
42   Curt Schilling   1.26
43   Scott Baker   1.25
44   Doug Davis   1.25
45   Felix Hernandez   1.22
46   Carlos Zambrano   1.14
47   Daisuke Matsuzaka   1.11
48   Adam Wainwright   1.08
49   Oliver Perez   1.04
50   Derek Lowe   1.04
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