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Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:59 am
by RedSoxNation04
Anyway....

in mocks on couchmanagers and MDC, I've seen him going mid to late second round while Chase has gone anywhere from the 5th overall pick to the 11th. Personally, I wouldn't grab Utley in the first as I would rather grab one of the elite 3B or SS and then try to grab either Philips at the end of the 2nd, Upton in the third (mostly where I've seen him go except for one draft where he went right after Phillips in the 2nd round) or someone like Kinsler, 20/20 in the 6th/7th, or someone like Polanco or Sanchez in the 13th/14th if my steals are in good order and I'm looking for some average, hits and runs. I see nothing wrong with picking Phillips in the 2nd and if I had the #1 or #2 overall pick, I would be willing to take him with my second pick hoping I could take one of Upton, Berkman or Ordonez with my third pick. Obviously its more of a gamble if I have the 2nd pick as I'd have to wait to see who is left after the team with the #1 pick takes their bookend picks.

Nothing against Utley, I would just rather go with one of A-Rod, Wright, MCab, Hanley, Reyes or Rollins...of course, a lot of this depends on your draft order in the first place. I would imagine that, for most people, if you have picks 1-6 you're probably not drafting Utley anyway and if you have 10-12, he probably won't fall to you.

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:47 am
by JakeTrain72
I like Phillips, but I'm giving upton the nod over him. I think both deserve late second round picks.

One thing I have been thinking about is the possibility of taking BP and Upton with late 2nd and early 3rd round choices if available (assuming you could start both of them within your league settings). There is a drop off after these two and it would open up nice trade options as a 30/30 2b is extremely valuable. Even if a Cano or Kinsler explodes, Upton or BP would be a huge upgrade for all but two other teams in your league. And really, you might not want to trade. I like having 30/30 guys in my lineup. Especially if you combine them with a top 4 pick.

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 2:51 pm
by KronJon
The right place to pick Brandon Phillips is not at all, IMO. He is not worth the pick he is commanding this year, as I see guys taken much later outperforming him.... such as Kinsler and Weeks. There are also quality 2B to be had late in drafts this year such as Jeff Kent and Luis Castillo. I really wouldn't use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Phillips.

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:04 pm
by The Cow
KronJon wrote:The right place to pick Brandon Phillips is not at all, IMO. He is not worth the pick he is commanding this year, as I see guys taken much later outperforming him.... such as Kinsler and Weeks. There are also quality 2B to be had late in drafts this year such as Jeff Kent and Luis Castillo. I really wouldn't use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Phillips.



Luis "friggin" Castillo is a quality 2B?? Wow! Castillo stole 19 bags and hit 1 HR last year, you need to redefine "quality. Kent is aging as well, but he could bounce back. Kinsler and Weeks are solid options. Weeks however remains very questionable will he finally break out this year? Kinsler is a solid option. Upton and Phillips are closely ranked. Please do yourself a huge favor and do not draft Castillo and his 38 RBI's.

The Cow

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:55 pm
by RedSoxNation04
Yeah, no way I pass up on Phillips or any other second basemen to take Castillo...

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:44 pm
by KronJon
The Cow wrote:
KronJon wrote:The right place to pick Brandon Phillips is not at all, IMO. He is not worth the pick he is commanding this year, as I see guys taken much later outperforming him.... such as Kinsler and Weeks. There are also quality 2B to be had late in drafts this year such as Jeff Kent and Luis Castillo. I really wouldn't use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Phillips.



Luis "friggin" Castillo is a quality 2B?? Wow! Castillo stole 19 bags and hit 1 HR last year, you need to redefine "quality. Kent is aging as well, but he could bounce back. Kinsler and Weeks are solid options. Weeks however remains very questionable will he finally break out this year? Kinsler is a solid option. Upton and Phillips are closely ranked. Please do yourself a huge favor and do not draft Castillo and his 38 RBI's.

The Cow


I haven't drafted Castillo nor do I intend to. My point wasn't focusing on him so much, but the fact that 2B is somewhat deep this year and there are decent options late into drafts. I have however drafted Kent a few times this year. Anyways, the point was that Castillo is decent value for a guy that can be had in the last round of a draft. A 2B who consistantly hits .300 with 20+ steals that can be had in the final round of a draft is quality. Add in the fact that the Mets lineup looks like this: Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Alou, Church... and you have a recipe for 100 runs scored from a last round 2B pick. I'd much rather take someone like Sizemore or Ortiz with my 2nd pick than Brandon "friggin" Phillips who I see being below the likes of Kinsler and Weeks by season end.

As for Weeks, and my claim that he will trump Brandon Phillips... let me remind you of a few things:
*weeks will play in milwaukee for the full season.
*weeks scored 87 runs in 118 games last season.
*weeks stole 25 bases in 118 games last season.
*weeks scored 73 runs in 95 games in 2006.
*weeks walk rate doubled in 2007.
*weeks power jumped significantly in 2007.
*weeks is still just twenty-five.
*all of this sums up to an expected line of .260 BA, 110 R, 22 HR, 28 SB, 70 RBI.

I highly doubt Phillips repeats 30-30. Maybe 20-20.

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:03 pm
by RyeWhiskey
KronJon wrote:
The Cow wrote:
KronJon wrote:The right place to pick Brandon Phillips is not at all, IMO. He is not worth the pick he is commanding this year, as I see guys taken much later outperforming him.... such as Kinsler and Weeks. There are also quality 2B to be had late in drafts this year such as Jeff Kent and Luis Castillo. I really wouldn't use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Phillips.



Luis "friggin" Castillo is a quality 2B?? Wow! Castillo stole 19 bags and hit 1 HR last year, you need to redefine "quality. Kent is aging as well, but he could bounce back. Kinsler and Weeks are solid options. Weeks however remains very questionable will he finally break out this year? Kinsler is a solid option. Upton and Phillips are closely ranked. Please do yourself a huge favor and do not draft Castillo and his 38 RBI's.

The Cow


I haven't drafted Castillo nor do I intend to. My point wasn't focusing on him so much, but the fact that 2B is somewhat deep this year and there are decent options late into drafts. I have however drafted Kent a few times this year. Anyways, the point was that Castillo is decent value for a guy that can be had in the last round of a draft. A 2B who consistantly hits .300 with 20+ steals that can be had in the final round of a draft is quality. Add in the fact that the Mets lineup looks like this: Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Alou, Church... and you have a recipe for 100 runs scored from a last round 2B pick. I'd much rather take someone like Sizemore or Ortiz with my 2nd pick than Brandon "friggin" Phillips who I see being below the likes of Kinsler and Weeks by season end.

As for Weeks, and my claim that he will trump Brandon Phillips... let me remind you of a few things:
*weeks will play in milwaukee for the full season.
*weeks scored 87 runs in 118 games last season.
*weeks stole 25 bases in 118 games last season.
*weeks scored 73 runs in 95 games in 2006.
*weeks walk rate doubled in 2007.
*weeks power jumped significantly in 2007.
*weeks is still just twenty-five.
*all of this sums up to an expected line of .260 BA, 110 R, 22 HR, 28 SB, 70 RBI.

I highly doubt Phillips repeats 30-30. Maybe 20-20.


Interesting argument. Let me remind you a few things:
*Weeks has NEVER played a complete season without injury.
*Weeks has only hit above .239 ONCE: 2006 (.279) with a whopping 359 ABs...
*Brandon Phillips was a highly touted prospect (much like Weeks), except unlike Weeks, he actually broke out.
*And when he broke out in 2006 (the same year Weeks hit .279 in 359 ABs), Phillips went: .276 65 - 17 - 75 - 25 in 536 ABs.
*Phillips then followed this break out year, not with a slump, but with: .288 107 - 30 - 94 - 32. Yeah... that's not too shabby...
*Comparing those years, Phillips' peripherals remained the same. Reason for fear? Nope. He just got 114 more ABs.
*Weeks is still 25? Phillips is a whopping two years older than him...

Expect Phillips to repeat? No, not completely. But you can expect him to still be freakishly productive out the the 2B spot, I'd say:
.280 100 - 27 - 95 - 30
Or you could have Weeks, if he's healthy at...
.260 110 - 22 - 70 - 28 (you're prediction)

So which numbers would you rather have? Oh, need I mention that that "if" is enormous?

- Monkey

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:20 pm
by Yoda
My money is on Weeks that he earns more relative to his cost compared to Phillips in 2008.

Weeks still has a higher ceiling and is younger. Injuries have held him back the last two seasons but when he was finally healthy towards the end of the year, he was awesome.

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:23 pm
by KronJon
Yoda wrote:My money is on Weeks that he earns more relative to his cost compared to Phillips in 2008.

Weeks still has a higher ceiling and is younger. Injuries have held him back the last two seasons but when he was finally healthy towards the end of the year, he was awesome.


Exactly. The entire point of the comparison is value relative to where the player is drafted. Phillips is just not worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick when you can have Weeks much later.

As for "which numbers" I would rather have... well, I disagree with your prediction on Phillips stats. I see him closer to 20-20 than 30-30. However, even disregarding that and choosing from the predictions you listed, I would still rather have Weeks since he won't take up my 2nd or 3rd round pick. I'll get a stud in those rounds such as David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, etc.. and then take Weeks much later on who I expect to be a top 2B this year. It is all about the value they provide relative to where they get drafted. Right now, taking Phillips in the 2nd or 3rd round is essentially banking on a repeat of last season, which I just don't see happening.

Re: Where is the right place to pick Brandon Phillips?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:54 pm
by The Cow
KronJon wrote:
Yoda wrote:My money is on Weeks that he earns more relative to his cost compared to Phillips in 2008.

Weeks still has a higher ceiling and is younger. Injuries have held him back the last two seasons but when he was finally healthy towards the end of the year, he was awesome.


Exactly. The entire point of the comparison is value relative to where the player is drafted. Phillips is just not worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick when you can have Weeks much later.

As for "which numbers" I would rather have... well, I disagree with your prediction on Phillips stats. I see him closer to 20-20 than 30-30. However, even disregarding that and choosing from the predictions you listed, I would still rather have Weeks since he won't take up my 2nd or 3rd round pick. I'll get a stud in those rounds such as David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, etc.. and then take Weeks much later on who I expect to be a top 2B this year. It is all about the value they provide relative to where they get drafted. Right now, taking Phillips in the 2nd or 3rd round is essentially banking on a repeat of last season, which I just don't see happening.


Well I think I can find a OF or 1B at the time you are drafting Weeks. So you get say Beltran and Weeks and I get Phillips and OF/1B somebody will slip. Not sure on which guy. I do know that I had the choice of keeping a 31 year old Beltran or a 27 year old BP and chose BP. Ortiz would be a tougher call, I would probably pick big Papi.

The Cow