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Winning with just pitching?

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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:54 pm

I'd rather have Hart than some of those earlier OFs you mentioned~

Yes a bad draft pick is a bad draft pick. Drafting Dye, Wells, Delgado or Konerko in the 4th round was a bad draft pick last year. Atkins put up just fine numbers so that one confused me. For every Hafner, Manny (who wasn't someone I would have drafted last year) there is a Carpenter, Schmidt, Harden that was a flop or guys like Oswalt or Halladay who were just as overvalued last year as Hafner was.

I think the key with pitching is finding the guys who you firmly believe will produce better than the 4th/5th round guys but can be had in the 7th/8th round. As an example there are three pitchers that I would rather have than Lackey, Hamels who go 2 rounds later, those are the guys I'm targetting in the 5th/6th round this year. There are a couple guys I like as much as the 7th round pitchers who go in the 9th/10th round. That is where the value is, guys like Haren and Bedard last year were on every one of my teams and knowing that I could get them later made taking a guy in the 5th or 6th round a bad value. Not taking the top 5 or 6 pitchers but the guys who will be close to as good as them but people don't have rated as high (and no I'm not saying who they are because I have a money league draft coming up).

pitchers generally exist in two states.

1) Risky because they haven't proven they can do it for a long time or have been injured recently
2) Risky because they have done it for a long time and probably will regress or get hurt

Hitters have a third state that is proven and not that likely to regress. Santana, Webb and Peavy are probably the only three pitchers I see who I'm not worried about them regressing or getting hurt for some reason which is what makes them 1st-3rd round picks. None have them has had pitch count issues which is a great and rare thing.

If you look at the top 25 pitchers from as recently as 3 years ago you won't find a ton of the same names in the top 25 this year. With hitters you'll still see a big chunk of the same players. Hitting is just more stable year to year.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby horatio » Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:07 pm

Well you're right about Atkins Ender, he still finished at a little lower lower value than his ADP last year I believe, but he wasn't a whole lot better than Adrian Beltre.

Bedard last year was so obvious, i loved grabbing him in the 11th, and Haren was a nice grab too, and even Beckett went in the teens last year, I'm having a little harder time identifying pitchers that will go after round 6 that I think are close to being sure things this year though, Felix is probably my favorite and Chris Young is very nice too, but we'll see what happens. A lot of mid round pitchers will make you competitive, I just think that this year it's a bit tougher to get that little edge that will put you over the top with pitching categories and while some of the later hitters I believe won't significantly underperform some hitters that are going a lot earlier.

The season will test our theories.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby Dan Charette » Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:17 pm

I always like to have the best staff in a league. I tend to draft hitters who hit for average. Ialways get speed. Another category you can get is runs by getting a few leadoff batters.
In H2H , you can even win homeruns and rbi's if you have a few hot batters.
In roto , I think a balanced team is a must. I wouldn't try the all pitching strategy.
One thing not mentioned as a factor is the size of the league. In a 14,16, 18, or 20 team league, you may do real well trying to win with mostly pitching. The league is so deep that it will be almost impossible to stream pitchers. Besides , in the deep leagues you may not even want to drop any of your players just to try and play the pitching heavy team. Your dropped players if you do try and stream, will get picked up by other teams. But in a 10 team league you would get streamed and creamed.
It's always good to see some teams trying some differant strategies. I think there's more than 1 way to win , especially in deep leagues with limited options on the ww.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:29 pm

horatio wrote:Well you're right about Atkins Ender, he still finished at a little lower lower value than his ADP last year I believe, but he wasn't a whole lot better than Adrian Beltre.

Bedard last year was so obvious, i loved grabbing him in the 11th, and Haren was a nice grab too, and even Beckett went in the teens last year, I'm having a little harder time identifying pitchers that will go after round 6 that I think are close to being sure things this year though, Felix is probably my favorite and Chris Young is very nice too, but we'll see what happens. A lot of mid round pitchers will make you competitive, I just think that this year it's a bit tougher to get that little edge that will put you over the top with pitching categories and while some of the later hitters I believe won't significantly underperform some hitters that are going a lot earlier.

The season will test our theories.


Yeah I do agree with you, this year doesnt' have as many clear cut pitching sleepers and people seem a little bit more on top of them. More and more people are looking past ERA and WHIP and trusting in the more useful pitching statistics. Last year I didn't take any pitchers until the 8th or 9th round but this year I'm targetting my first one in the 6th or 7th round and there is a chance I even grab a Peavy or Webb because I don't like the back end of the 2nd round or front end of the 3rd round for hitter value this year.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby Russell James » Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:44 pm

I just made a topic about this...oops, sorry about that.

Anyways, This strategy does work if you know how to use it. I am going to try it again this year but I won both of my H2H leagues with it.

If you are going to draft pitcher heavy then you must draft consistent bats. You can't have anyone lower then a .285 average and try to get lead off hitters.

I learned this some years ago,

Pitching is always undervalued in the draft and then overvalued during the season. I draft Harang every year in the 8th or 9th round and end up trading him for a hitter who was drafted in the 1st or 2nd.

You don't win a league through the draft, you win the league by making smart trades.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:14 pm

Russell James wrote:I just made a topic about this...oops, sorry about that.


Yeah, and I won't repost my thoughts on this again :-D Already did here:

viewtopic.php?t=325561#p2618793
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby Grouperman941 » Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:00 pm

In the H2H league I just joined, the guy who has been 1 or 2 the last three years has been very SP heavy -- 2 of his first 3 picks were Santana and Peavy last year.

I think very good players can manage against this type of team, but if the league has enough just average players, you can end up winning like this.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby Matthias » Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:48 pm

In a sense, it's the Moneyball approach to fantasy baseball: find an inefficient market because of historical biases/common wisdom, and exploit it.
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:54 pm

Matthias wrote:In a sense, it's the Moneyball approach to fantasy baseball: find an inefficient market because of historical biases/common wisdom, and exploit it.


Point taken but I still feel that drafting hitters early and taking under-the-radar pitchers is the way to go...


So, I guess you could call me the Joe Morgan of fantasy baseball... :-b
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Re: Winning with just pitching?

Postby RAmst23 » Fri Mar 07, 2008 12:22 am

Matthias wrote:In a sense, it's the Moneyball approach to fantasy baseball: find an inefficient market because of historical biases/common wisdom, and exploit it.


Well I think the argument against this would be that the pitching market is not inefficient (Naturally). Some pitchers may be undervalued just as some hitters are, but the reason pitchers go much lower than hitters is due to the volatility of pitchers. Peavy is the 2nd highest rated pitcher, yet 2 years ago he had 11 Ws, a 4+ ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Josh Beckket had a 5+ ERA last year, Haren had a 4+ ERA etc.

I think it's the better bet, as has been stated, to just find the best value in your round and not go either pitcher or hitter friendly. Stats such as HR, R, RBI, SB tend to be more stable than ERA, and W. I can better predict what a hitter's going to do than a pitcher, so this riskiness makes pitchers fall farther.
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