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Thanks Shandler!

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Thanks Shandler!

Postby jfg » Fri Mar 07, 2008 6:04 pm

I bought the Forecaster today at my local Barnes and Noble and I opened up to see the first article: Trying to figure out what went wrong with his Aubrey Huff projection. Not just a blurb but an in depth article about what goes wrong with the projections. I found it very refreshing that he's put an article like that in the book.
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Mar 07, 2008 8:04 pm

what is the gist of the article if you don't mind telling?
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby jfg » Fri Mar 07, 2008 10:25 pm

It's actually about 6 pages which breaks down why projections are often wrong. It breaks down all possibilities, goes into detail about GM's hiding the truth and how analysis is always getting better. It's actually somewhat of a cop out, but I don't think you could do it any other way. It's nice when the projectors look back at their mistakes and think aloud where they went wrong. That helps us as much as the projections.
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby quicksilver8 » Fri Mar 07, 2008 10:38 pm

I downloaded the updates the other day...can anyone figure out why he has Garrett Atkins only hitting 20 homers this season? :-S
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby J.C.Fighter » Fri Mar 07, 2008 10:53 pm

quicksilver8 wrote:I downloaded the updates the other day...can anyone figure out why he has Garrett Atkins only hitting 20 homers this season? :-S



What other weird ones do you see?
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby quicksilver8 » Fri Mar 07, 2008 11:05 pm

I think Randy Johnson will be better than the 4.40 era and 1.42 whip they have projected.
They appear to have Brett Myers saving 4 games as well...not sure about that one!
I'm looking at the NL only sheets and Dunn is projected for 480 AB and 35 homers...I wonder if they think he will be traded to the AL near the deadline?
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby The Big Train » Sat Mar 08, 2008 5:44 am

quicksilver8 wrote:I downloaded the updates the other day...can anyone figure out why he has Garrett Atkins only hitting 20 homers this season? :-S


The projection for Atkins only took into account 521 AB for this year. He had 605 AB last year and 602 in 2006 so you can definitely tack on at least a few more. Having said that, one thing seems likely: he's probably not a 30 HR type of guy (not that I care if it comes with a nice AVG and 110+ RBI).

The player projections must be scrutinised carefully for this kind of thing. In general, I tend to prefer to look at the sentinment expressed in the analysis over the projected numbers themselves.
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby jfg » Sat Mar 08, 2008 2:28 pm

Yeah, if you read Shandler's blurb on Atkins he has very good reason to predict a mediocre season from Atkins.
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby tgalv » Sat Mar 08, 2008 2:41 pm

didn't shandler draft placido polanco early in a draft a few years ago. i have trust issues when people are arrogant/stupid enough to do that.
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Re: Thanks Shandler!

Postby Pochucker » Sat Mar 08, 2008 3:17 pm

Uh I dont think anyone can classify Shandler as "arrogant" or "stupid" --that would be "ignorant"
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