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Postby wrveres » Thu Feb 26, 2004 8:27 am

Erboes wrote:
wrveres wrote:Can I point out something here about one team?
cus its bugging me to death, sorry whom ever owns it ....

The Bugalosa Bombers

quik risk/'04 question mark test. to be completed after every draft IMO!!!

RJs knee
Smotlzs elbow
Greens Arm
Mantei ? ? ? well his everything

And that is just in the top 7 rounds.... ;-) oh my ..

continuing ..

Larry Walker can't stay healthy
Willis -- All 2 of his pitches are in question for this season.
Dunn .. 8-o At 14?? .. you might as well have spit at me .... This couldn't be a cafe owner, could it?
Graves ... Closer till when, May, June? does he even make it to July before bieng dealt or losing his job ??
Drew??? For all that if fricking holy ...

Dunn AND Drew ? ? ? ? 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o

wait a minute lets me look at this again and put it into perspective .. Your OF is ...

Larry Walker .. Adam Dunn and JD Drew .. 8-o ????

That is the top three names on my "Avoid list" and you got them all ... right there on one little team, how ironic. ;-7

If there was ever a Roto Player that the 'cafe' could help ...
The owner of the Bugalosa Bombers is in desperate need of our services.

again sorry who ever owns this team ... just my .02 i didn't even touch on Craig Wilson not having a job. This is a horrible team


Wrveres, what little faith you have. I will win this league going away.



8-o 8-o Erboes ??? 8-o 8-o
Well errr uggh what can I say? ... ...

other than, I am contemplating spotting you $200.00!!
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Feb 26, 2004 8:30 am

wrveres wrote:Dunn AND Drew ? ? ? ? 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o

wait a minute lets me look at this again and put it into perspective .. Your OF is ...

Larry Walker .. Adam Dunn and JD Drew .. 8-o ????



Maybe he's an orthopeadic surgeon picking his team based on professional interest.
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Postby wrveres » Thu Feb 26, 2004 9:23 am

Sorry again Erboes .. I am sure that Alomar and Casey will carry the day when Drew and his crew go down .. good luck. ;-D

Just one last note. Its become apparent that you and Tribe Fan are not only friends, but you both obvioussly drink form the same cup of tea.

Tribe Fan .. Griffey in the 12th? .. If I were you, I would try and trade him to Erboes real quik. Ya know he will take him too .. ask for anything chit ... Mora.

can anybody explain how the crack got into the Cleveland water system.? I need a link please ... :-D


BTW Tribe ... your team is far superior to Erboes IMHO
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 26, 2004 9:37 am

No wonder you didn't want to make it a bet for money, Erboes :-D This seems to be a guinea pig league for your innovative ranking system.

We'll see how eveything works out during the season, cuz anything can happen. I still can't get over Walker at $30 and Beltran at $17 though. Unless, of course, Walker has a career high in GP at the spry young age of 36 and Beltran for some reason declines after entering his prime and steadily increasing for 3 straight seasons.....oh yeah, and having one of the best RBI guys of the last decade batting behind him this season. Beltran's setup for failure........ :-o

But if these projections turn out to be somewhat accurate, I'll be the first to congratulate you.

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Postby Erboes » Thu Feb 26, 2004 9:42 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
wrveres wrote:Dunn AND Drew ? ? ? ? 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o

wait a minute lets me look at this again and put it into perspective .. Your OF is ...

Larry Walker .. Adam Dunn and JD Drew .. 8-o ????



Maybe he's an orthopeadic surgeon picking his team based on professional interest.


Et tu, Mookie?

You guys are actually disappointing me. Let me explain to you my thinking. Firstly, I don't believe in drafting for balance. If all goes close to plan, I should be way ahead in steals, saves and, if Johnson holds up, most pitching categories by the break, and from there I will be able to trade the excess to fill in any needs I may have at that point and still cruise to top three finishes in those categories. By the end of July, Johnson and/or Prior, Crawford, and Smoltz and another reliever will be on the market and you can fill in a lot of holes with those players.

Secondly, my outfield is Crawford, Green, and Bradley. My utility spots are Walker and Drew. Dunn and Casey are my 1b's. My other choices when I drafted Bradley, Walker, Drew, and Dunn to fill those spots were players such as Palmero, Podsenik, D. Ortiz, Lofton, Burrell, Gibbons, Konerko, and others. Picking those is guaranteing mediocrity. My philosophy in a draft or auction when given a choice between mediocrity or riskier + production types is to take or buy the riskier ones when you get that late in a draft or cheaper in an auction. If they don't pan out I can always find mediocrity on the FA market. Besides, I think I'll get better production out of these players in 400 AB's then I would get in 600 AB's with the safer choices, which allows a couple hundred AB's to be used by someone else. I just don't consider these players much of a risk considering where I got them. It's just competing philosophies.

The one true risk I took was with Johnson, though, but he was someone I couldn't pass up. My thinking of him was this: If he's healthy I have little doubt I'll win this thing and there was no one else there at that point I could have said that about. Would Wells, Kent, Hudson, or Loretta (players who went right after Johnson) have made that much of a difference in my team if I selected them? They would have helped, sure, but not nearly as much as a healthy Johnson.

Everyone has differing philosophies, guys, and yours is obviously to be more safe than me. The only drafts and auctions that I particate in that I don't draw snickers in are the ones that I've played in for more than one season. I'd actually be concerned if this draft didn't draw some derision from you guys. Like I always say, time will tell, boys. Time will tell.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Feb 26, 2004 10:22 am

I forgot a couple points on my prior post. I drafted Wilson because I believe if he does get the AB's he'll be a starter caliber catcher. Since I do not know yet how many AB's he will get, I decided to pick him as a backup. I am not convinced that Simon will get as many AB's as last season, which would free up more AB's for Wilson. Remember, if Wilson gets 400 AB's that is pretty standard for a catcher. If I learn later this spring that Wilson will probably not get enough AB's I will cut him and pick up a new backup catcher. This, Wrveres, is not a big deal.

And Jackal, why must you keep on beating the same dead horse? I will explain Walker once again to you. In the past five seasons Walker has earned $40 in 438 AB's, $42 in 497 AB's, and $32 in 477 AB's, with a couple down years in between. I can assume two things with Walker: He'll miss some time with injuries and there'll be some slippage due to age. Accepting this, I could still go as high as a $40 value him for this season and be justified by the facts. Playing it safe, though, I have him at $30, which is way on the low end of any reasonable expectations of him. The problem is, conventional wisdom assumes he is finished although there is no evidence to support this. Maybe conventional wisdom is right for a change, but I don't recommend that you worship at that altar too frequently.

And your love affair with Beltran, although quite cute, is really not based on relavent facts. A normal Beltran season in 620 AB's and .288-109-24-102-33. My projections have him in 586 AB's .282-111-24-101-31. I don't think there's barely a difference worth mentioning between them. Now, you may be right and he becomes this superman like you claim, but I just don't see the evidence of it. And, please, stop bringing up this "protection" garbage. Very, very, very, overrated, and even if there was something to it any advantage he'd gain would probably be lost due to the fences being moved back in Kaufman.
Last edited by Erboes on Thu Feb 26, 2004 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 26, 2004 10:44 am

HOOTIE wrote:I expected CORN to have more Tigers? :-D


2 aint enough - I think I paid a fair price for them. Young was the 9th 3b taken. Sanchez was taken in the 11th after I realized I needed more steals. Sanchez probably could have gone later,but it worked out anyway, both of the Gonzalez thumpers fell to me in the 12-13th - not too shabby when a person can fill both util spots with the Gonzalez Guys.

As for Erboes passing on Palmeiro - thank you. I kept watching him fall further and further until I just couldnt pass on him again. Palmeiro in the 10th rd is value, considering the protection he has in BAL.
You can have Dunn.

Im pretty excited about my team and this league. I think the only glaring weakness my team has is closers. I have power, speed, and some solid SPs. I feel good about having my biggest weakness the same as one of the most volatile positions in fbball, so I can be able to strengthen it cheaply by watching for the next closer free agent.

Any suggestions or comments for my team would be greatly appreciated.
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Postby wrveres » Thu Feb 26, 2004 10:48 am

Erboes, I understand the whole risk/reward arguement, I really do. And I also understand that there has to be a percentage of risk taken in order to win in fantasy baseball, but I am pretty sure its no where close to 50% risk.. I honeslty think you took too much risk.


But, ....

Try as you mite, you will never convince me that I should have Dunn, Drew and/or Larry Walker on my fantasy team. Not in 2004 and not in 2005!! And since one of those particualar punks owes me a title,(guess?) they aint coming close till 2006, maybe!!!
Nope, those three guys are gonna have to show me some consistency first. I mean a ton of consistency, like "years" worth. One of them at the plate and the other two off there ass kinda consistency.

If putting one of those three bums on your team is a cardinal sin, what does that make two of those bums? God forbid somebody should go and "grab" all three.

But I'll give ya this. If you do pull this thing out, its very possible, you could go down as the most 'clutch' roto-manager in history ;-) you got your work cut out for ya.


I have no problem with "crow" .. its good with ketchup they say :-D
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Feb 26, 2004 11:01 am

Erb,

I don't mind a lot of your picks, I only question when they were drafted.

I am for maximizing value. You could have waited at least one more round for RJ, 2 rounds for Green, a few more for Mantei and Borowski.

In my last draft with cafe regulars (12 teams), I got Green in the 8th, RJ went with the last pick in the 5th (he obviously fell too far), Mantei went in the 11th and Borowski in the 12th. It just looks like you reached for players that you liked and that is not consistent with value drafting.

I do like your 9-12 picks of Hinske, Bradley, Walker and Martinez.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Feb 26, 2004 12:27 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:Erb,

I don't mind a lot of your picks, I only question when they were drafted.

I am for maximizing value. You could have waited at least one more round for RJ, 2 rounds for Green, a few more for Mantei and Borowski.

In my last draft with cafe regulars (12 teams), I got Green in the 8th, RJ went with the last pick in the 5th (he obviously fell too far), Mantei went in the 11th and Borowski in the 12th. It just looks like you reached for players that you liked and that is not consistent with value drafting.

I do like your 9-12 picks of Hinske, Bradley, Walker and Martinez.
.

You weren't there, Mookie. It was like every reasoable assumptions you can make on where these guys were going to go was thrown out the window. My plan was to take Johnson with my second pick (I don't know about your drafts, but in the ESPN draft result page, he went on average at the 19th pick. He may have been there in the third, but not when it snaked back around to the fourth) and Jeter in the third (the best player on the board at this point in my opinion). From here, all hell broke loose. I planned on coming out of the 4-6 rounds with two of these OF's: Abreu (ESPN average was the 48th pick), Berkman (47th pick), C. Jones (68th pick) and Crawford (62nd). But look where they went. Abreu at 39. Berkman at 42. Jones at 54. And if I didn't take Crawford when I did I didn't think I'd have another chance at him.

At this point I had no choice to scrap my plans and go after the best available players, which turned out to lean heavily towards closers. Smoltz, Borowski, and Mantei I all took about where they were going in the ESPN draft thing, so I don't believe I was reaching for them at all. I had planned to take Green in the 8th, but the way the draft was going I didn't think I could wait that long, so I bagged him in the sixth. He was the best player on the board at that time by my projections, so in my mind I didn't reach for him.

And like I said, Wrveres, we have differing philosophies. I stated my case with Walker and I don't think he was much of a risk at all. Drew is much more of a risk, but we're talking the 17th round here, Wrveres. Should I have taken Payton or Crosby there (the two who went right after) instead?

The only player you have a case about I believe is Dunn, and that was the only pick I used that was solely on need. I decided I needed a power hitter badly, otherwise I'd be taking the risk of getting buried so deep in that category that I'd never be able to trade my way out of it. The players left who'd fill that bill were E. Martinez, R. Sanders, Everett, Konerko, and Jenkins. Of this group only Jenkins I strongly considered, but since I didn't have a player yet eligible for 1b I decided to go with Dunn. I am not one of those Dunnophiles, but he certainly had the most HR upside of anyone left at this point, or at least in my opinion.

We got to see how it all plays out.
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