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Postby bleach168 » Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:37 pm

Congradulations Erboes! Impressive victory over some stiff competition!
"And so he spoke, and so he spoke, that lord of Castamere. But now the rains weep o'er his hall, with no one there to hear." - The Rains of Castamere
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:10 am

Yeah I thought it was just an avatar bet, didn't remember the name change. Go ahead and pick my avatar !+)

Also, for every Sosa or Renteria projection, there was a Beltran ranked higher than Larry Walker prediction. But you (erboes) were right a lot more than I thought possible. I havn't been playing FB very long (about 3 years) but now that I've spent my first season at the Cafe I've learned a lot - mostly about drafting safe players in the first few rounds and making the value picks later (ie guys who could be great or could suck - instead of guaranteeing mediocrity). I was probably too sure of myself for my own good, but hey, it's mroe fun that way.

To be honest, I pretty much gave up after Boone, Giambi, Glaus, and Cabrera were lost causes. I'm not making excuses for finishing 11th, but if I kept more active I might have finished closer to 10th..... :*) Anyway, I concede defeat this year. I hope we have another Cafe Challenge next year, and if we do, you can bet I'll be more prepared }:-) And I'll have another avatar bet. Although maybe there should be another type of wager, since you never post here anymore and changing your avatar would be pointless. It doesn't get more embarassing than having an Indians avatar anyway :-b (This coming from a guy with a Jays sig)
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Postby Erboes » Tue Oct 05, 2004 7:00 am

Thanks, fellas.

No, I won't brag, but I'll tell you that after as much crap I took on these pages about my team I am fighting the urge to do so.

And, hey, I do come on at least once a month but last time I was on no one was here. I think everyone fled to football. In my absence you guys should heed Cornbread Maxwell's advice. he's a sharp dude.

I'm not sure I like you with humility, Jackal. Be pompous, it suits your personality better. I did say that I am not holding you to your bet. I think the humiliation was enough.



By the way, Beltran did better than I thought, I agree, but if you look back at the original "Beltran or Guerrero" thread, I stated that the reason why Guerrero is better is because Beltran is not that good of a hitter. Where I went wrong with him was underestimating how much he would forgo average for power and how much of a FA push he would make in steals. Add into it his trade to the hitting park in Houston and it spelled a missed projection. He ended up at 120-38-104-42-.268. I had him at (final projections before the start of the season, now what you say when we gave you a free weekend) 111-24-101-36-.282. The homers made it a wrong projection. He had a hell of a season.

And, yes, Walker did get hurt which made him a bad projection, but I stand by what I had for him because he proved this season that he can still hit, which was the basis of it in the first place. In 258 AB's, the guy hit 48-17-47-6-.298. If he had stayed in Colorado his numbers would have been better.

By the way, we are putting up our last projections before the beginning of the season and I believe it is going to be available for non-members. I think it will be up this Friday. I'll let Tribe-fan validate this. There will be no free weekends next spring for you Cafe cheapskates. And we are also doing football, which I do not believe we posted here on the Cafe.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Oct 05, 2004 7:36 am

Good jobs guys.

Great job on the projections (I may even pay for a subscription).

btw Erboes - I think that JBL even gave you props in the Football Cafe, somebody mentioned you over there at least - and they complimented your prediction prowess. ;-D
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Postby Erboes » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:13 am

Thanks, Mookie.

You know, I had some big misses too. Burroughs was mentioned and that is the one I am most embarrassed about. He was the one player I had nothing statistically to back it up. He was my one "leap of faith" projection and I ended up with egg in my face over it.

Another one was Miquel Cabrera, but I am not embarrassed by it at all. The guy just took a big leap in pitch selection and there was nothing there to suggest he would. He could be a great one. On the other hand, I think at the time I said that you should forget about Cabrera and Blalock and instead take Teixeira much later. He may not have matched Cabrera, but it was pretty close and he was a much better bargain.

I can spend all day writing about this past season but I have begun working on '05. Joe Mauer is already next season's Victor Martinez and Teixeira and Crawford are the two pegged to jump into superstardom next season. This is all preliminary, though, so it could all change.
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Postby Pedantic » Tue Oct 05, 2004 12:46 pm

Hmmm...I finished third. Interesting. What does it say about me as a fantasy baseball player when my team does better when I don't pay attention than when I do?
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 1:07 pm

Well, my beef with the Walker projection wasn't that he can't hit - it's that he can't hit when he's on the DL for half the season. And Beltran hit more HR in less AB's while at Kauffman as opposed to MM Park, despite a higher OPS in MM Park, so I don't think that was the reason for the increase in HR.

Anyway, looking forward to next season. Good luck with the site and I'm sure you'll have more believers going into next season. Just make sure they see the Casey/Sosa projections, not the Burroughs/Walker projections :-D
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Oct 05, 2004 1:30 pm

Nice job Erboes - really nice job.

I cant help but be disapointed with myself. I really think I could have given you a better run for the money. I left 39 OF games and 26 UTIL games on the table - a look at the standings shows that I could have made the most ground in offensive cats. For that I have no one to blame but myself.

Trade of the yr:

Dealing DRiske for Beltre way back in April. ;-D

Nice job everyone - hopefully we can do this again next yr.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Oct 05, 2004 1:55 pm

That isn't entirely true, Jackal. One of your main points was that Walker is finished. I disagreed. Besides, my final projections changed before the season started and Beltran was way ahead at that point. And you also need to understand that I did not start with my rankings then add the numbers to them. I put in the numbers and the rankings go according to that. In the case of Beltran, it wasn't his power numbers that lowered him in my rankings, it was his average, and I was dead on with that. Was I wrong about his power? Yeah, I guess I was, but considering he never hit more than 29 in a season and they were moving the fences back in Kaufmann, the numbers were right where they should have been, at least in my opinion. Not an exact science there, Jackal.

Cornbread, I had a feeling you were going to make a run and you did despite your own inept in-season management. Actually had me worried there a couple of weeks ago too.

I actually had a couple of bad trades too. One of them was Casey for Luis Gonzalez. And how about the trade that I pulled with Tribe-fan in which you guys made a stink about -- me trading Mora and Willis for Rolen? You guys cried until I had to veto it, and as we predicted that was one heck of a deal for him.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:11 pm

I'm pretty sure I never said Walker was finished. I said he's older than Sosa and that was reason not to assume Sosa would decline, but I'm pretty sure the only argument against Walker was that he wouldn't play half the season..... and he didn't. Not that it matters much though.

And maybe Beltran was a bit of a subjective projection that he'd hit a lot of HR's, but it turned out to be the case anyway. I don't think anybody thought moving the fences back 10 feet would turn Kauffman into the worst HR park in baseball, but it did. He still managed to hit HR's at a much better rate in Kauffman then Minute Maid, though (17 AB/HR as opposed to 22 AB/HR). Don't know how that worked out... small sample sizes I guess.
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