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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:14 pm

As I clicked submit, Larry hit a deep HR off of Odalis Perez.... but the question is, can he stay healthy for Game 2? :-b
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:14 pm

Wow, Erobes. You really whooped everyone pretty nicely.

so, what's your secret? O:-)
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Postby Erboes » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:57 pm

George_Foreman wrote:Wow, Erobes. You really whooped everyone pretty nicely.

so, what's your secret? O:-)


Clean livin', George. Clean livin'.

I looked back at it, Jackal, and you are somewhat correct on Walker. You did not say that he was finished in so many words. I do still stand by that projection anyway. For the three season prior to this one he average 475 AB's a season and he was healthy at the time when I made them. I may have gotten overzealous taking on an extra 30 AB's for him than his average for those three seasons, but I do not believe it was a major concern. I should also point out that he was worth $42 in 497 AB's in 01 and $32 in 477 AB's in '02, so I do not believe $30 in 500 AB's was a stretch. I also do concede that you were more right about Beltran than me, but you were not that close to being accurate either. Beltran sacrificed average for power in an attempt to be a 40/40 guy entering free agency, which he came close to doing. He's a heck of a player, but I would be willing to bet that after he signs his big contract he will never approach these numbers again.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 4:31 pm

I believe Walker was injured to start the season; when I made the argument that he'd only play half a season it was because he was starting the year on the DL and his history of dealing with injuries is not good. He didn't play until late June...

As for Beltran, if he signs with the Yankees do you think his SB's would go up? My feeling is that they'll let him run more than KC or Houston did. 28 SB's and no CS's? I think he should have ran more in Houston... And if the Yanks let A-Rod run as much as he does, I can see 50 SB's or higher for Beltran. And obviously the runs and RBI would be plentiful in the Bronx. What do you think about his BA if he lands in NY? In KC he was about .290 over his 4 final years (not weighted based on AB/season, just a mean BA), but dipped to .258 in Houston. Will that continue? Will he be more comfortable in the AL? Seems to me that 280-290 is reasonable. He did have 2 seasons of 306 and 307 in KC, and certainly his protection will be better in NY (of course, I'm assuming he lands there).

So do you think he'll be the #1 fantasy player in NY? If not, then who?
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Postby Tribe-Fan » Tue Oct 05, 2004 5:57 pm

LBJackal wrote:As for Beltran.....and certainly his protection will be better in NY (of course, I'm assuming he lands there).


Not my business, not my argument, but be careful on this whole lineup protection issue. I am not even sure it exists. You made the same argument to support your claim that Sosa would hit higher then .251 this season. I think it is very possible that lineup protection is a popular myth. Here is a study I found on the topic.

http://baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/protstudy.html

It's a little old, but it is interesting.

I will make one more point, and this is not directed at Jackal but for everyone. We all can go back and forth arguing who will do what this year or next, but we should all take one thing from this, it is better to keep an open mind.

Do you know how many people called us crazy for our Sosa projection? Or how many people told us we were nuts for ranking Victor Martinez as the 3rd best catcher going into 2004? Not just here on the cafe, but in the hundreds of emails we got regarding our projections. And not just people calling us crazy, but people saying that we obviously don't know baseball and that we should shut up and move onto other things. I was actually startled by some of the anger displayed in some of those messages, but I suppose if we pick on someone's favorite player they might get defensive.

My point is this, remember that the next time someone tells you something that you first off think is crazy. You may disagree, but keep in mind that many things are possible, and never close yourself off to new ideas.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 6:44 pm

:-?

Interesting study. It seems like it might not be accurate for the reason that it only looks at hitters who switched spots in the batting order mid-season. Presumably, if you're hitting well with a slugger behind you, you won't be moved. Those players wouldn't have been included in this study - kinda hard to take a study like that at face value when they don't count the players who were successfully hitting infront of sluggers.

Look at Bonds/Kent in 2002: Kent slugged .484 in the cleanup spot, behind Bonds. He slugged .667 in the 3 hole, in front of Bonds. Classic example of lineup protection making a huge difference.

I don't think there's any doubt that hitters see better pitches with a slugger on-deck. This study looks good at face value, but when you think about it, it's very flawed - it only counts hitters who change spots in the order; if they're successful in front of a slugger they likely won't have different protection for a significant amount of at-bats, and the amount of hitters who lose the slugger behind them due to injury or trade is not large enough to come to a conclusion after a seasons worth of stats from the American league. That's why I don't believe this:

"I estimate the standard deviation of the difference in SLG to be .015 ... it is statistically significant evidence that protection doesn't help SLG by more than .004."

They don't KNOW how much protection affects SLG. They can't know, because for a lot of players, there isn't any alternative to compare it to and they used a very small sample size.

Yeah, it's counter-intuitive that players who struggle with good protection do better without good protection, but that doesn't mean players who fare well with good protection would do better without that protection :-?

Also, players who have good protection are usually batting near the top of the batting order, since sluggers are located at 3rd/4th in the lineup usually. If you're at the top of the order, you get an unproportionate amount of at-bats in the 8th and 9th innings - that's a fact. And in the 8th/9th inning, that's the time when most teams use their stud RP's. And we know that stud RP's almost always have better ERA's and SLG against then SP's do. That's something else this study didn't take into account. Every spot you are higher in the batting order, you get about 18 more AB's per season. So if you go from 5th to 3rd, that's 36 extra AB's that come in the 8th/9th innings.

So basically, I'm saying there is no conclusive evidence that it either helps or hurts to have a slugger behind you; but do you think you'd see better pitches if A-Rod/Sheff/Giambi were batting behind you, or if Sweeney/Stairs/Randa were hitting behind you? That's what I meant by better protection in NY than in KC. And I'm pretty sure that it will help his R, RBI, and BA stats (Better BA than he'd have if he was in KC next year; not neccesarily better than his previous years in KC). For SB's it's yet to be seen how often he'll get the green light, but the way they gave it to A-Rod.... it makes me think they'd give it to the best basestealer in baseball history a lot.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Oct 07, 2004 11:20 am

Jackal,

I think it's a bit premature to annoint Beltran the next great Yankee. I wouldn't bet on him ending up there, so I am not going to dig into the park effect to make a prediction. I will say this, though, playing in Yankee stadium hurts some players and helps others. Their three biggest acquisitions in recent seasons have been hurt by it, Giambi, A-Rod, and Sheffield. Giambi should never have signed there. His swing was a bad match for that stadium and trying to adjust made his swing a mess. A-Rod will probably never hit 40 homers again playing there and will have a difficult time breaking .300. Sheffield hits the ball all over the field so he was affected the least. Still, it did take a toll on his average a bit and that will probably continue. It's harder to tell with Beltran because he is a switch hitter, but if he does sign there I will dig deeper into it.

The steals for the Yankees is an interesting point if he does sign with them. A-Rod went nuts on the base paths, which masked a disappointing season for him. Would Beltran do the same? Excellent question which I do not have the answer to. I don't agree with you that his stealing bases were curtailed after he was traded to Houston. He stole 27 while there, which I think was more of a desire to become a 40/40 player than anything, which is a heck of a bargaining chip as a FA.

I am not as big of a fan of Beltran as you are, Jackal, but that is only from a baseball perspective. He is not a good enough of a hitter to be able to sustain high average and high power. If he wants to hit .300, his HR's will probalby drop to under 30. If he wants to hit 40 HR's his average will drop like it did this season. As a hitter he doesn't hold a candle to Bonds, Pujols, and Guerrero, but those steals sure make up for it. It he continues to stea 40 a year he will always be a threat to be the top fantasy player in baseball, but I don't know how long he will keep that up.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:22 pm

Yeah it's just speculation taht Beltran lands in NY. I don't know for sure, but if he does - and he doesn't try to hit HR's every time up - I think he'll be the #1 fantasy player. He'll be on base a lot, score tons of runs, still have his 25-30 HR probably, and with all thsoe times on base and NY's green light they seemt o give, his SB's would likely be higher than this season's.

I guess the reason I like beltran so much is because he's going to give you a good season; every year from 2001 forward has been awesome. he has at least 30 SB's in every year, and at least 40 the past 2 seasons. His HR's are about 30, with a SD of 5. His BA has, for the most part, been around 290. This is over 4 consecutive seasons, hardly a fluke. Other than A-Rod, who I don't think will steal half as many bases as Beltran, you can't say that about too many players. With a seeming guarantee to put up first round value, and the possibility to be far and away the best fantasy player (depending on the team, park, whether he tries to hit HR's or just hit the ball, etc). The upside is too big for me to not take him #1 I think..... plus, if you want a player to rack up all your SB's, you'll probably need Crawford, Pierre, or Podsednik. All of those guys are lacking big time in some categories; Pods has a horrible BA, RBI, and HR. Pierre has no power whatsoever, and Crawford has very little power as well (so far).

I guess we'll just see where he ends up, and hopefully it's in a favourable situation.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:30 pm

I agree, he is a heck of a player. I would say he is a .300 hitter with 30 HR power overall, and if one will go up the other will go down. If he continues to steal 40 he very well could be the best out there. Even 30 and you couldn't go wrong. It's just a matter where he plays and how much he is going to run.
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:22 pm

You sure Beltran isn't a power hitter? If not, he sure is fooling me. He's hit 25% of your predicted HR output in 4% of a season 8-o

(Yeah, I know it's a small sample size. But come on, 7 HR and 13 RBI in 8 games!!!)
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