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Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 3:11 pm
by CineMamet
How many homers do you think he will hit this year?

Bill James projects 18, ESPN projects 24
Why do most sources project less than last year? He hit 18 before the all-star break, went to the home run derby, and for the 2nd year in the row bottomed out in the 2nd half.

With his smooth stroke and tall frame, is he never going to go for 30? Even as far as his SB goes, will he ever become a 30-30 threat?

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 3:13 pm
by The Cow
No to 30 on both counts

The Cow

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 4:59 pm
by mweir145
I can't see Alex Rios ever been a consistent 30 HR hitter, but he will probably do it a few times in his career.

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:03 pm
by hot4tx
I was beginning to worry about this in my keeper league and felt like a 3rd round value may be all he ever gets to be. I basically traded him for A Soriano, and feel I sold Rios close to his value peak.

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:12 pm
by CineMamet
The first article deals with pitch approach. The second is a PR piece from the Jays. I mean, a 22HR-20SB .300 season batting lead-off for the Jays is nice from a fantasy perspective, especially with the higher walks and thus OPS, but it's not elite. Those of us who drafted him from the draft spots 25-35 were probably expecting more than Curtis Granderson-lite.

http://bjays.wordpress.com/2007/10/06/d ... alex-rios/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... the_plate/

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:13 pm
by mweir145
hot4tx wrote:I was beginning to worry about this in my keeper league and felt like a 3rd round value may be all he ever gets to be. I basically traded him for A Soriano, and feel I sold Rios close to his value peak.

I wouldn't worry about trading Rios for Soriano. Alfonso is much more of a sure thing at this point, and has a history of being a great fantasy player.

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:37 pm
by CineMamet
mweir145 wrote:
hot4tx wrote:I was beginning to worry about this in my keeper league and felt like a 3rd round value may be all he ever gets to be. I basically traded him for A Soriano, and feel I sold Rios close to his value peak.

I wouldn't worry about trading Rios for Soriano. Alfonso is much more of a sure thing at this point, and has a history of being a great fantasy player.


Interesting take. I think most feel that Rios is going into his 3rd year if not a stud, at least a very good fantasy player. Soriano, on the other hand, while still in his power prime, may not steal 30SB anymore.

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:43 pm
by hot4tx
That's obviously a concern, but he probably has as much of a chance for 30 SBs as Rios does for the next couple years at least. Soriano did steal 40 a couple years ago and isn't mid-30s yet where you expect someone with his body type to finally stop stealing much. I think you can pencil in 25 SBs for Soriano for another couple years. Also he's had more power and if the 25-HR range is really Rios cap then Soriano will be the better player for another 3-4 years.

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:49 pm
by CineMamet
hot4tx wrote:That's obviously a concern, but he probably has as much of a chance for 30 SBs as Rios does for the next couple years at least. Soriano did steal 40 a couple years ago and isn't mid-30s yet where you expect someone with his body type to finally stop stealing much. I think you can pencil in 25 SBs for Soriano for another couple years. Also he's had more power and if the 25-HR range is really Rios cap then Soriano will be the better player for another 3-4 years.


True. Soriano is a guy that really cares about his fantasy stats. Most players even before the late 20's stop stealing bases as they begin to bulk up and their speed declines. But then again, if a guy like Carlos Lee can still swipe more than 10 a season, then surely Soriano can keep going. His injury was a freak injury and wasn't anything serious. It's not like Vlad's case where his legs just can't handle it anymore.

Re: Alex Rios' power?

PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:57 pm
by mweir145
CineMamet wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
hot4tx wrote:I was beginning to worry about this in my keeper league and felt like a 3rd round value may be all he ever gets to be. I basically traded him for A Soriano, and feel I sold Rios close to his value peak.

I wouldn't worry about trading Rios for Soriano. Alfonso is much more of a sure thing at this point, and has a history of being a great fantasy player.


Interesting take. I think most feel that Rios is going into his 3rd year if not a stud, at least a very good fantasy player. Soriano, on the other hand, while still in his power prime, may not steal 30SB anymore.

I've watched a lot of Rios as a Jays fan, and I've owned Soriano for years in a league (which might make me a bit biased, but whatever). I've never been totally sold on Rios' HR power, and I don't think the team allows him to steal as much as he could.