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Where do you draft Kinsler next year?

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Re: Where do you draft Kinsler next year?

Postby J35J » Sun Jul 06, 2008 10:20 pm

He's likely a second rounder next year.....its not something I really think about during the season though so I'll see how things shake out by the end of the year before I would say for sure.
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Re: Where do you draft Kinsler next year?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Sun Jul 06, 2008 11:41 pm

I'm sorry folks, but I don't see how after one amazing half of a season you all can rank Kinsler ahead of Phillips. Let's recall that Kinsler hit .286 and .263 in the past two seasons - well off the .328 he's hitting now. Let's also recall that Phillips is directly on pace to mimic last season (read: what you drafted him for). Furthermore, here's Kinsler's half splits over the past two seasons:

2006 (Avg - HR - RBI - R - SB):
Pre-ASB (150 AB): .320 - 7 - 26 - 21 - 2
Post-ASB (273 AB): .267 - 7 - 29 - 44 - 9

2007:
Pre-ASB (261 AB): .241 - 14 - 35 - 50 - 11
Post- ASB (222 AB): .288 - 6 - 26 - 46 - 12

What do you see? Complete inconsistency. I have no idea what to expect out of Kinsler in the second half of 2008 except a huge decline in average and runs (these are correlated). On the other hand, I know exactly what to expect out of Phillips: more of the same or even better.

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Re: Where do you draft Kinsler next year?

Postby freeling_prideful » Sun Jul 06, 2008 11:52 pm

AngryMonkey wrote:I'm sorry folks, but I don't see how after one amazing half of a season you all can rank Kinsler ahead of Phillips. Let's recall that Kinsler hit .286 and .263 in the past two seasons - well off the .328 he's hitting now. Let's also recall that Phillips is directly on pace to mimic last season (read: what you drafted him for). Furthermore, here's Kinsler's half splits over the past two seasons:

2006 (Avg - HR - RBI - R - SB):
Pre-ASB (150 AB): .320 - 7 - 26 - 21 - 2
Post-ASB (273 AB): .267 - 7 - 29 - 44 - 9

2007:
Pre-ASB (261 AB): .241 - 14 - 35 - 50 - 11
Post- ASB (222 AB): .288 - 6 - 26 - 46 - 12

What do you see? Complete inconsistency. I have no idea what to expect out of Kinsler in the second half of 2008 except a huge decline in average and runs (these are correlated). On the other hand, I know exactly what to expect out of Phillips: more of the same or even better.

- Monkey


Hhmm, I think given Phillips' consistent performance you may actually be right, Phillips should continue to be ranked around 20-25 while Kinsler should perhaps be right behind him. However, I still believe Kinsler is completely legit this season. Consider that in those last 2 seasons, his BABIP in both seasons has been unlucky:

2006: .304 BABIP, .206 LD, xBABIP = LD + .12 = .326
2007: .279 BABIP, .196 LD, xBABIP = .316

Now in 2008... .343 BABIP, .215 LD, xBABIP = .335

So he's getting slightly lucky this season, but if he doesn't have any luck and he regresses to about a 20% line drive rate, we can still expect him to hit about .300 given his strong 85% contact rate and good plate discipline--in his major league career he has roughly 1 BB/10 AB.

In comparison, Brandon Phillips has lower LD%, higher GB% (which makes it harder to consistently hit for power, since you hit fewer FB that could potentially become HR) and similar strikeout rates...all of which leads to him having an expected average more in the .280-.290 range.

So if we expect Phillips to perform .290-30 HR-100 RBI-100 R-30 SB and Kinsler to put up .300-25 HR-85 RBI-120 R-40 SB...their values would be very close.
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